Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Yambo]

I was hoping that when the Russians had taken Severodonetsk Putin would / could have shouted success but I was clearly wrong about that. Maybe after they took Lysychansk, but no. He's still not satisfied.

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end weĺl for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

[Horse]

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end weĺl for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

Interesting read:

[Mussels]

I've not seen anything that bullish so far but some key bits I have seen elsewhere, mainly that the HIMARS missiles have been devastating, Russia is pausing it's big push and people in the Kremlin are openly saying this.

[MingtheMerciless]

Interesting about the steel sanctions affecting arty barrels. Be interesting to see if this is mentioned in other blogs.

[Tomcat]

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end well for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

I'm inclined to agree with him. Ukraine has fought hard and bravely and made Russia pay dearly for its gains, but it has continued gaining and there are no real game changers out there, just a drip-feed of new weapons in an ever greater number of types with different training and logistic requirements, operated by a dwindling number of troops. Russia has a massive advantage in numbers of men and equipment, no matter how much a few precision strikes by Ukraine may look good in western press. They are too little, too late. In the absence of such weapons of their own Russia has fallen back on grinding tactics of heavy artillery bombardment and indiscriminate destruction to drive the defenders back. And remember, it's easier to defend than attack - if the Russians are still gaining ground against entrenched and heavily armed, well motivated defenders, there's no way the Ukrainians will ever gain that ground back militarily.

When and where it ends is hard to predict. The Ukrainian defence could collapse under its losses. The EU could be forced to press for a settlement if Russia cuts off its gas as winter falls. Compassion fatigue and weapons shortages in donor countries could set in, depriving Ukraine of the advanced weaponry that has served it so well so far. Zelenskiy has rather painted himself into a corner, refusing to cede a single inch... meanwhile the Russians continue advancing and with the supply of long range weapons like HIMARS they now claim they will need more land to provide a longer range buffer between them and the rockets. It's all rhetoric of course but unfortunately as long as it continues so does the war. Personally, I think it's quite likely that a negotiated settlement could be found, with Donbass and the south as autonomous regions. Which is after all what the Russians have said they wanted all along - not a complete occupation of Ukraine. Short of this they will take more land so if they need to cede some back they will be left with what they actually want.

[Mussels]

Russia said a couple of days ago it now wants to occupy the whole country.
But it seems MI6 agree with the article above.
BBC News - Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62259179

Russia's claim to the rest of Ukraine may be to try and scare Ukraine into agreeing to give up territory, confirming Russia is struggling.

[Hoonercat]

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end weĺl for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

Interesting read:

Very intersting, and some of it has been corroborated today by both the US and Ukraine. US genreal Mark Milley confirmed that Ukraine is using HIMARS to take out Russian control centres and their logistical networks. And this from the Ukraine military:

Russia has been using repurposed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to target Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, according to Kyiv.
Ukrainian military intelligence says Western sanctions have made it harder for Russia to replenish stocks of the parts of its more advanced equipment.
“Many components were manufactured abroad. But the restrictions introduced due to international sanctions do not enable [Russia] to openly get the components,” Skibytsky explained.

[Yambo]

Which is after all what the Russians have said they wanted all along - not a complete occupation of Ukraine.

I personally find it difficult to believe anything the Russians say.

Maybe you can tell me why a much publicised failed incursion towards Kyiv was launched if all they wanted was to set up an autonomous region in the Donbas. Maybe my geography fu is lacking.

Russia is currently using heavy artillery to drive the Ukrainians out of the Donbas. I struggle to see why, after they've flattened the place they'd want to occupy it. They may eventually take enough ground to be happy but it has already come at a huge cost. As a plan, it doesn't have a lot of merit.

They've persuaded Sweden and Finland to seek the security of NATO, they've isolated themselves from the West, their military has been shown up as mostly incompetent, their logistics are shite and I suspect they'll soon run out of serviceable artillery gun barrels. Corruption appears to be the only strong point.

Ukraine shouldn't give them an inch. That too will come at a huge cost but if the Ukrainians want to be an independent sovereign state, they're going to and will, I think have to accept that cost. Good luck and more HIMARS to them!

[irie]

Which is after all what the Russians have said they wanted all along - not a complete occupation of Ukraine.

...
Maybe you can tell me why a much publicised failed incursion towards Kyiv was launched if all they wanted was to set up an autonomous region in the Donbas. Maybe my geography fu is lacking.
...
Ukraine shouldn't give them an inch. That too will come at a huge cost but if the Ukrainians want to be an independent sovereign state, they're going to and will, I think have to accept that cost. Good luck and more HIMARS to them!

This.

[Supermofo]

If Russia keeps shooting down their own planes it'll help Sounds like 2 now.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambl ... sing-them/

Sounds like their SU34M's should be operating with smart weapons from afar but aren't and are operating in the danger zone with dumb bombs. Which suggests they are being forced too. Now they have to worry about their own air defences as well as Ukraine's.

[irie]

“Russia is blackmailing us, Russia is using energy as a weapon.

“It is a likely scenario that there is a full cut-off of Russian gas and that would hit the whole European Union. A gas crisis in the single market, our economic powerhouse, will affect every single member state.”

Well I never, who would have ever thought that the widely misunderstood cuddly Russians might ever do such a dastardly thing.

[Hoonercat]

Ukraine shouldn't give them an inch. That too will come at a huge cost but if the Ukrainians want to be an independent sovereign state, they're going to and will, I think have to accept that cost. Good luck and more HIMARS to them!

Agree with the sentiment, but winter is only 14/15 weeks away and with much of Ukraine deprived of power, that cost could be horrendous. In the Donbas region alone, there is said to be 625,000 premises without power. The Ukraine military has stated that Russia is now conserving its long-range capabilities, presenting it as a positive to show Russia is running low. It's quite likely that Russia is conserving it long-range capabilities for winter, when it will target the energy infrastructure far from the front line in an attempt to break the will of the Ukraine people. It's a terrible thought, but winter could see tens of thousands freezing to death.

Russia, on the other hand, needs to ensure its troops are equipped to survive winter and their artillery continues to function. The initial assault took place in the north towards the end of winter, so you would assume those troops were equipped for winter, but the bulk of Russian troops didn't arrive in Donbas until early spring. With the Russian logistical failures and Ukraine targetting their storage depots and supply lines, it may be very difficult getting enough winter equipment to the front lines before winter sets in. Even if the advance stalls, they will still need a sizeable troop presence to hold the front lines, and a lack of winter equipment could see a huge drop in morale.

[Cousin Jack]

I seem to recall that General Winter was a major factor in several Russian victories, albeit when other people were invading Russia rather than the other way around.

[Yambo]

I seem to recall that General Winter was a major factor in several Russian victories, albeit when other people were invading Russia rather than the other way around.

General Winter is certainly a player but has only been used to advantage by the Russian's in support of Russia's vast numbers of cannon fodder.

That Mayotte be the situation in this scheme.

[Hoonercat]

The Ukraine counter-offensive around Kherson in the south appears to be gaining ground. Losing it would be a huge blow to Russia, given it was the first city they occupied.

The Ministry of Defence concludes that Russia’s 49th Army stationed on the west bank of the Dnipro river “now looks highly vulnerable” and that the city of Kherson is now cut off from the rest of the territory controlled by Moscow.

[irie]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995

Russia cuts gas through Nord Stream 1 to 20% of capacity

Russia’s Gazprom has halved the amount of gas flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe to 20% of full capacity

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Germany authorizes production of 100 howitzers for Ukraine

It will likely take a while before the state-of-the-art weapons arrive to the battlefield.

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

[Hoonercat]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995

Russia cuts gas through Nord Stream 1 to 20% of capacity

Russia’s Gazprom has halved the amount of gas flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe to 20% of full capacity

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Germany authorizes production of 100 howitzers for Ukraine

It will likely take a while before the state-of-the-art weapons arrive to the battlefield.

Got to love the way Politico just makes up the stuff they don't know

Welt
It is still unclear when the first howitzers will go to Ukraine. The production of all howitzers is likely to last for several years.

Kyiv Independent
The order will take several years to complete, according to the report. Spiegel added that it was not yet clear when the first howitzers could be delivered.

Interfax-Ukraine
The first new howitzers can be delivered 30 months after the signing of the contract, that is, not earlier than in the second half of 2024. The full delivery will not be completed until 2027.

This is a contract between Ukraine and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the German Govt only had to approve it (took all of 2 days for approval, once submitted by KMW). It's a future defence contract. Ukraine had the option of the cheaper, static version which could have been delivered earlier (from existing stock).

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

Or not....

[irie]

Forgive me for concluding that these two events may not be entirely unrelated.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireSto ... y-87484995

Russia cuts gas through Nord Stream 1 to 20% of capacity

Russia’s Gazprom has halved the amount of gas flowing through a major pipeline from Russia to Europe to 20% of full capacity

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... r-ukraine/

Germany authorizes production of 100 howitzers for Ukraine

It will likely take a while before the state-of-the-art weapons arrive to the battlefield.

Got to love the way Politico just makes up the stuff they don't know

Welt
It is still unclear when the first howitzers will go to Ukraine. The production of all howitzers is likely to last for several years.

Kyiv Independent
The order will take several years to complete, according to the report. Spiegel added that it was not yet clear when the first howitzers could be delivered.

Interfax-Ukraine
The first new howitzers can be delivered 30 months after the signing of the contract, that is, not earlier than in the second half of 2024. The full delivery will not be completed until 2027.

This is a contract between Ukraine and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the German Govt only had to approve it (took all of 2 days for approval, once submitted by KMW). It's a future defence contract. Ukraine had the option of the cheaper, static version which could have been delivered earlier (from existing stock).

If Germany had done this months ago it would have saved many Ukrainian lives.

Or not....

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

[Count Steer]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Eh? Wossat got to do with the KMW contract? They started manufacture before approval anyway, delivery will be over a period. Germany and the Netherlands have already donated a number.

The contract is completely unlinked to gas supply changes it's been in the works for a while.

[irie]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panzerhaubitze_2000

Germany: 185 delivered between 1998 and 2002.[16] 7 were sent to Ukraine in 2022. 16 sold to Croatia and 21 to Lithuania. 108 to remain in active service.

Made the mistake of reading your post.

Adieu.

Eh? Wossat got to do with the KMW contract? They started manufacture before approval anyway, delivery will be over a period. Germany and the Netherlands have already donated a number.

The contract is completely unlinked to gas supply changes it's been in the works for a while.

108 in "active service" to defend against what, exactly?

Could have given many to Ukraine.

Not like you to miss the point.