Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Yorick]

Bernie Ecclestone has always been a fruitcake, it's just that we're now adding senility into the mix. He just enjoys being as confrontational in his views as he can be. He loves stirring the pot. He's recently been taking advantage of Lewis Hamilton's less than stellar recent results to take potshots at him (as has Jackie Stewart). He'll never pass up an easy target or a cheap shot.

What's J.S. been saying

[mangocrazy]

He's been saying that Lewis should resign as his heart clearly isn't in it. JS has had a down on LH since Lewis didn't take up his offer of advice when he was a lot younger. On balance I'd say Lewis hasn't done too badly without the benefit of JS's wisdom...

[irie]

IMG-20220226-WA0003.jpg (93.22 KiB) Viewed 372 times

[Supermofo]

Did anyone see the Bernie Ecclestone interview on GMB earlier?

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/put ... 12651.html

Fuck me, I wish you would take a bullet for Putin!

What a twat

[mangocrazy]

Did anyone see the Bernie Ecclestone interview on GMB earlier?

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/put ... 12651.html

Fuck me, I wish you would take a bullet for Putin!

What a twat

I concur. He's always enjoyed being contrary and controversial, now he's adding senility into the mix. And he's always been a twat.

[irie]

A date to watch, perhaps ...

DT: "Russia might use a planned routine maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline on July 11, which usually implies a short halt of deliveries, as a pretext to cut off gas supplies to Germany and Europe for a longer period."

[Mussels]

Cutting off gas to Europe also means cutting off gas to Kaliningrad, Russia seems very touchy about that place.

[irie]

A mid 20th century war of attrition being fought in the 21st century.

- Russia will run out of trained military man power before Ukraine does.

- Russia will run out of weapons before Western weapon supplies to Ukraine do (assuming that the appeasers do not get their way, that is).

Utterly horrible.

[Hoonercat]

Ukraine’s military intelligence believes that Russia can continue at its current rate without manufacturing more weapons or mobilising the population for another year.

Ukraine is now suffering high casualty rates and reports from the frontline suggest they are running low on ammo. 4 weeks ago Ukraine warned they were almost out of Soviet ammo and would soon be reliant on western-supplied arms, but those supplies are arriving at a trickle. Reading interviews with soldiers in (now taken) eastern towns, they had nowhere near enough artillery, and what they did have had to be rationed. They were sitting there under constant artillery fire waiting for the Russian advance, but only had a few hours worth of ammo.

[Supermofo]

Must say things don't sound pretty for Ukraine at the moment. Russia aren't far from what they appear to be saying are their aims and doesn't look like Ukraine can do much about it. Pushing the Russian's out at a later date will prove costly too as attack always costs more than defence.

[Hoonercat]

Must say things don't sound pretty for Ukraine at the moment. Russia aren't far from what they appear to be saying are their aims and doesn't look like Ukraine can do much about it. Pushing the Russian's out at a later date will prove costly too as attack always costs more than defence.

The US announced a new arms package a few days ago but, unlike the 4 Himars which were supplied directly from the US army supplies, the latest package will be procured from industry and will take 'weeks to months' before they arrive in Ukraine (mostly much needed artillery shells). That's going to be too late for the rest of the Donbas region, which you would expect to fall in the next few weeks if Ukraine is as short of equipment as reports are suggesting.
Despite Zelensky (and other world leaders) insisting that no ceasefire will be agreed that gives Donbas to Russia, once Donbas is fully under Russian control I think we'll see cracks in that insistance. If Putin does offer a ceasefire he'll make it clear that a refusal will see Russia opening up new fronts he's not stupid enough to accept some kind of stalemate while Ukraine waits to be rearmed by the west and sanctions bite further into the Russian economy.

[Cousin Jack]

Must say things don't sound pretty for Ukraine at the moment. Russia aren't far from what they appear to be saying are their aims and doesn't look like Ukraine can do much about it. Pushing the Russian's out at a later date will prove costly too as attack always costs more than defence.

It is a shitfest, but hopefully NATO and all other countries have learned that you cannot EVER trust a dictatorship.

[Supermofo]

Despite Zelensky (and other world leaders) insisting that no ceasefire will be agreed that gives Donbas to Russia, once Donbas is fully under Russian control I think we'll see cracks in that insistance.

Yeah that's my take on it. Russia will take the Donbas and offer terms which the Western alliance will find hard to ignore in the face of it's own economic suffering, esp as winter will be on the way and Russia can switch off the gas taps. So the West will be facing the choice of having to push Russia out and prolonging the conflict for possibly years or accepting the situation at Ukraine's expense and try and get their economies back on track. I can see that being a massive test.

[Yambo]

I was hoping that when the Russians had taken Severodonetsk Putin would / could have shouted success but I was clearly wrong about that. Maybe after they took Lysychansk, but no. He's still not satisfied.

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end weĺl for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

[Horse]

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end weĺl for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

Interesting read:

[Mussels]

I've not seen anything that bullish so far but some key bits I have seen elsewhere, mainly that the HIMARS missiles have been devastating, Russia is pausing it's big push and people in the Kremlin are openly saying this.

[MingtheMerciless]

Interesting about the steel sanctions affecting arty barrels. Be interesting to see if this is mentioned in other blogs.

[Tomcat]

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end well for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

I'm inclined to agree with him. Ukraine has fought hard and bravely and made Russia pay dearly for its gains, but it has continued gaining and there are no real game changers out there, just a drip-feed of new weapons in an ever greater number of types with different training and logistic requirements, operated by a dwindling number of troops. Russia has a massive advantage in numbers of men and equipment, no matter how much a few precision strikes by Ukraine may look good in western press. They are too little, too late. In the absence of such weapons of their own Russia has fallen back on grinding tactics of heavy artillery bombardment and indiscriminate destruction to drive the defenders back. And remember, it's easier to defend than attack - if the Russians are still gaining ground against entrenched and heavily armed, well motivated defenders, there's no way the Ukrainians will ever gain that ground back militarily.

When and where it ends is hard to predict. The Ukrainian defence could collapse under its losses. The EU could be forced to press for a settlement if Russia cuts off its gas as winter falls. Compassion fatigue and weapons shortages in donor countries could set in, depriving Ukraine of the advanced weaponry that has served it so well so far. Zelenskiy has rather painted himself into a corner, refusing to cede a single inch... meanwhile the Russians continue advancing and with the supply of long range weapons like HIMARS they now claim they will need more land to provide a longer range buffer between them and the rockets. It's all rhetoric of course but unfortunately as long as it continues so does the war. Personally, I think it's quite likely that a negotiated settlement could be found, with Donbass and the south as autonomous regions. Which is after all what the Russians have said they wanted all along - not a complete occupation of Ukraine. Short of this they will take more land so if they need to cede some back they will be left with what they actually want.

[Mussels]

Russia said a couple of days ago it now wants to occupy the whole country.
But it seems MI6 agree with the article above.
BBC News - Russia about to run out of steam in Ukraine - MI6 chief
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62259179

Russia's claim to the rest of Ukraine may be to try and scare Ukraine into agreeing to give up territory, confirming Russia is struggling.

[Hoonercat]

My Ukrainian friend tells me he's safe but is convinced this war will go on for a long time and will not end weĺl for Ukraine. I want to think differently but losing hope.

Interesting read:

Very intersting, and some of it has been corroborated today by both the US and Ukraine. US genreal Mark Milley confirmed that Ukraine is using HIMARS to take out Russian control centres and their logistical networks. And this from the Ukraine military:

Russia has been using repurposed anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles to target Ukrainian forces in recent weeks, according to Kyiv.
Ukrainian military intelligence says Western sanctions have made it harder for Russia to replenish stocks of the parts of its more advanced equipment.
“Many components were manufactured abroad. But the restrictions introduced due to international sanctions do not enable [Russia] to openly get the components,” Skibytsky explained.