Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

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Will Russia invade the Ukraine

Yes
20
49%
No
12
29%
Maybe
9
22%
 
Total votes: 41

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Horse
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:01 pm I am amused by the fact a centrist party is losing out to the hard left AND the hard right. Seems like compromise is an even dirtier word than usual.
Isn't Macron's party already a compromise, joint effort?

Edit: Wiki says:

Ensemble (lit. 'Together') is a liberal political coalition in France.[3] Formed in November 2021 as Ensemble Citoyens,[4] it includes La République En Marche! (LREM), Democratic Movement (MoDem), Agir, Territories of Progress (TDP), Horizons, En commun, and the Progressive Federation.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by slowsider »

Mr. Dazzle wrote: Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:01 pm I am amused by the fact a centrist party is losing out to the hard left AND the hard right. Seems like compromise is an even dirtier word than usual.
See horseshoe theory.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Cousin Jack »

slowsider wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 8:54 am
What would Ukraine hope to achieve by destroying the German economy?
Damaging the Russian economy.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

Macron is well short of a majority (which is at least 289) ...
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by irie »

A (potential) second front has been opened in the Baltic states. Putin ain't gonna like it but what's he gonna do, completely cut off gas supplies to the EU and in doing so shoot himself in the economic foot?

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/2 ... strictions
Russia warns Lithuania over Kaliningrad goods restrictions

Moscow decries ‘openly hostile’ move to restrict the flow of EU-sanctioned goods to Russian exclave, as Lithuania defends measures.

Russia’s foreign ministry has demanded the immediate lifting of Lithuania’s “openly hostile” restrictions on the rail transit of EU-sanctioned goods to Moscow’s exclave of Kaliningrad.

Sandwiched between European Union and NATO members Poland and Lithuania, Kaliningrad receives supplies from Russia via rail and gas pipelines through Lithuania.

The Baltic nation of Lithuania announced last week that it was banning the rail transit of goods that are subject to EU sanctions from mainland Russia to Kaliningrad.
Loving the "openly hostile" :lol:
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

Sanctions on Russian crude oil don't appear to be working. In fact, Russia is now thought to be making more from crude oil than it was pre-invasion, thanks mainly to Asia. China's imports have gone up by 205% (March to May) while India's imports have shot up by 658%. Estimates suggest that India's imports of Russian crude will reach 25% of its total crude imports this month, compared to 2% the previous year.

India's 2 largest refineries (one of which is part-owned by a Russian energy company) are importing huge amount of Russian crude with a reported discount of 30%, then selling 'significant amounts' of the refined products to western countries which have announced sanctions against Russian crude (and will be phasing in sanctions against the direct purchasing from Russia of refined products) and are making a fortune from it. Even with the large discount, Russia is still receiving more per barrel as it was pre-invasion.

Analysts predict that India's (and Russia's) fortune will be short-lived as it doesn't have the storage capacity to make up for the expected loss of Russian exports once EU sanctions start to kick in through the year, but for now it's all looking a bit farcical.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

658% doesn't mean much if they were importing 100l previously.
I know exports to those countries have gone up but that sounds like someone is trying to make it look more dramatic than it is.

In other news France has suggested a political council of European nations, completely separate to the EU. Might ruffle feathers in Brussels and spur them into doing something about Russia.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Hoonercat »

Mussels wrote: Sun Jun 26, 2022 4:11 pm 658% doesn't mean much if they were importing 100l previously.
India is the third largest importer of crude oil in the world. 2% of their imports coming from Russia compared to 25% in the space of one year means alot.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by MingtheMerciless »

http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/ ... n.html?m=1

Well worth a read regarding war stocks and the dangers of shallow magazines.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by slowsider »

MingtheMerciless wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:08 pm http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/2022/ ... n.html?m=1

Well worth a read regarding war stocks and the dangers of shallow magazines.
This is chilling
Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US
Mass shootings at home are a necessary evil in order to be prepared for war.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

They should make surface to air missiles a civilian sport, that would sort out the supply issues.

The article only considered US manufacturing and ignored other large weapons manufacturing countries in NATO. I think military defence may not be the only motive behind it.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Horse »

slowsider wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 7:44 am
Mass shootings at home are a necessary evil in order to be prepared for war.
The Swiss experience:

"DM" version
https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... de/499028/
Thomas Reisch, a psychiatrist and researcher in Switzerland, was reviewing the rates of suicide in his country when he noticed something unusual. Right around 2004, the number of gun suicides substantially declined. Reisch, who serves as the medical director of a psychiatric hospital just outside of Bern, wondered why.

Switzerland ... boasts the fourth-highest rate of firearm ownership in the world—roughly 30 percent of all Swiss households contain a gun—trailing only the United States, Serbia, and Yemen.

The Swiss own so many guns because military service is compulsory, and active members are required to store their firearms at home. When members of the military leave the armed services, they are given the option to purchase their guns at a discount. In March 2003, the Swiss army introduced new reforms—titled “Army XXI”—that reduced the number of troops from approximately 400,000 to 200,000 over the period of one year. Reisch speculated that if there were fewer men in the army—and therefore fewer men with access to guns at home—the law could have contributed to a reduction in the suicide rate.

“I saw this drop, and I asked myself, ‘What could that be?’” Reisch said. “This was hypothesis-driven, but of course I thought it was the army.”

The link between gun ownership and suicides is well-documented. One sweeping study in the U.S. of 33 years of suicide and gun ownership data from all 50 states found a direct correlation between the two. The higher the gun ownership rate, the higher the suicide rate, the study found. One explanation for the phenomena: Guns are incredibly lethal when compared to other methods of suicide.

In his research, Reisch seized an opportunity to examine what effect gun ownership has on suicide in his country. Since the reduction in active-duty forces applied just to men ages 18 to 43, Reisch hypothesized that this group would see a reduction in the suicide rate, while rates among women and people outside this age group would remain steady.

Reisch’s study, published in 2013 by The American Journal of Psychiatry, showed that among this particular cohort of men, there were 2.16 fewer suicides per 100,000, meaning about 30 men were “saved” by the reforms. (In 2013, there were 222 total firearm suicides in Switzerland.)

Reisch found that about 75 percent of the men who would have taken their life with a gun did not choose another method of suicide, like poison or hanging. This evidence contradicts a common talking point among gun-rights groups: that people intent on killing themselves will simply find another means if they do not have access to a gun.

Research in the U.S. shows that between 5 and 11 percent of people who attempt suicide will go on to kill themselves—but the majority will not.

“It’s quite clear,” Reisch says. “Restricting access to guns saves lives.” (In what may amount to a substantive change in position, the leading firearms industry trade group recently partnered with the nation’s largest suicide prevention organization on an education program intended to reduce the number of gun suicides.)

Reisch’s research wasn’t the first to link changes in military policies to suicides. A 2010 study of the Israeli army, for instance, found that requiring soldiers to leave their weapons on base over the weekend, as opposed to bringing them home, decreased the suicide rate among troops by almost 40 percent.



"FT" version
https://smw.ch/article/doi/smw.2018.14646
CONCLUSIONS
Males who use army weapons differ from those who use other types of weapons. The significant drop in suicides was found in males aged 18 to 43 but there was no change in males of the same age group who used a non-army weapon. These results support the hypotheses that the observed drop in suicides is linked to the Army XXI reform and that restriction of access to guns is essential for reducing suicides by firearm.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by KungFooBob »

Did anyone see the Bernie Ecclestone interview on GMB earlier?

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/put ... 12651.html

Fuck me, I wish you would take a bullet for Putin!
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by slowsider »

Mussels wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:03 am They should make surface to air missiles a civilian sport, that would sort out the supply issues.
You jest, but I suspect a lot of the western volunteers who went to Ukraine without military experience were great at Call of Duty.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by JackyJoll »

KungFooBob wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:33 am Did anyone see the Bernie Ecclestone interview on GMB earlier?

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/put ... 12651.html

Fuck me, I wish you would take a bullet for Putin!
There’s “taking a bullet for” and there’s “taking money from.”
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Mussels »

JackyJoll wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:46 am
KungFooBob wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 8:33 am Did anyone see the Bernie Ecclestone interview on GMB earlier?

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/put ... 12651.html

Fuck me, I wish you would take a bullet for Putin!
There’s “taking a bullet for” and there’s “taking money from.”
It's a bit worse than that.
He added: “I am not a supporter of democracry. You need a dictator. As a dictator, you say, ‘This is what I’m going to do’. In a democracy, it gets watered down.”
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by KungFooBob »

It was mental to watch. He's so far removed from the real world, or he just doesn't care about lives of anyone poorer than him.
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by Dodgy69 »

It does seem that being super rich turns you into a nutter. 🙂
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by slowsider »

Dodgy knees wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:12 am It does seem that being super rich turns you into a nutter. 🙂
That's a bit harsh. Look at Elon Musk...


oh... :hmmm:
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Re: Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

Post by mangocrazy »

Bernie Ecclestone has always been a fruitcake, it's just that we're now adding senility into the mix. He just enjoys being as confrontational in his views as he can be. He loves stirring the pot. He's recently been taking advantage of Lewis Hamilton's less than stellar recent results to take potshots at him (as has Jackie Stewart). He'll never pass up an easy target or a cheap shot.
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