Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Hoonercat]

I think there's serious trouble on the horizon for NATO and the EU.

Russia will eventually make some gains in the Donbas region and when Putin feels he can do so, he'll call for a negotiated peace*. Zelensky isn't going to want to give up any land, and why should he, so Putin is going to ask France and Germany to help persuade Zelensky to give up the Donbas for good. Ukraine can't and shouldn't do that of course: Putin cannot be trusted to just sit on Donbas when it'll still give Ukraine access to the Black Sea and he want's to extend 'his' Russia to the old borders of the Soviet Union.

Asking France and Germany to put pressure on Zelensky will simply be blackmail of course. Until Europe has a supply of gas from elsewhere France and Germany aren't going to refuse Putin's request. Let's face it, the Germans promised some arms to Ukraine but I guess Putin isn't supplying enough energy for Germany to make them yet. That scenario is going to split the EU and NATO right down the middle. The US and UK won't be for pressuring Zelensky to give up land in exchange for 'a peace deal' and one would hope that Zelensky just tells Putin to "Fuck off" with that sort of deal but Germany and France . . .

They're going to pander to Putin. We all know it. it stinks but it's going to happen and the EU and probably NATO are going to be in shit state when they do.

I hope not. For years, Poland and the Baltic States have been warning of Putin's ambitions and their warnings seem to have been ignored by the west. The UK, US, Poland and the Baltic States seem to be resolute, but cracks do appear to be showing with Germany, France and Italy, despite, particularly in Germany's case, public support for Ukraine.

[irie]

I think there's serious trouble on the horizon for NATO and the EU.

Russia will eventually make some gains in the Donbas region and when Putin feels he can do so, he'll call for a negotiated peace*. Zelensky isn't going to want to give up any land, and why should he, so Putin is going to ask France and Germany to help persuade Zelensky to give up the Donbas for good. Ukraine can't and shouldn't do that of course: Putin cannot be trusted to just sit on Donbas when it'll still give Ukraine access to the Black Sea and he want's to extend 'his' Russia to the old borders of the Soviet Union.

Asking France and Germany to put pressure on Zelensky will simply be blackmail of course. Until Europe has a supply of gas from elsewhere France and Germany aren't going to refuse Putin's request. Let's face it, the Germans promised some arms to Ukraine but I guess Putin isn't supplying enough energy for Germany to make them yet. That scenario is going to split the EU and NATO right down the middle. The US and UK won't be for pressuring Zelensky to give up land in exchange for 'a peace deal' and one would hope that Zelensky just tells Putin to "Fuck off" with that sort of deal but Germany and France . . .

They're going to pander to Putin. We all know it. it stinks but it's going to happen and the EU and probably NATO are going to be in shit state when they do.

The way I see it Germany, France, and Italy, the previous centre of EU power, have lost both the moral high ground and control of power.

Control has shifted to Eastern and Baltic states, especially with all Scandinavian countries either being or soon to be NATO members. Now free previous members of the Soviet Union will not acquiesce to any compromise because their existence depends directly on not doing so.

The main NATO members (other than the puppet members Germany, France, and Italy of course) either can not or will not compromise. The EU stands poweless and irrelevant in this conflict. Finland and Sweden can read the writing on the wall.

These are Russian gas pipelines to Western Europe. Interesting to note the countries they transit through I think.

[Yambo]

It's really down to how Putin sees Germany and France's power in Europe and how he can use that to his advantage.

I suspect he thinks they still have quite a bit of clout within the EU, even NATO to try and sell his peace to Zelensky, so he'll try and use them. How they respond of course will be 'interesting'.

I just think that Putin will try to get his way (having pretty much failed militarily) and use Germany and France's posturing to do so, against the rest of the NATO/EU's position. I doubt Zelensky will be prepared to give up territory for peace. I don't think his electorate will allow him to and I think it'll be in Ukraine's favour the longer the war goes on. Putin's not stupid but is vain enough to need a victory and now weakened, some breathing space having achieved that 'victory'.

I just think that France and Germany are open to a bit of Putin's soft talk. And blackmail.

[irie]

I just think that France and Germany are open to a bit of Putin's soft talk. And blackmail.

Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred.

[irie]

Got to love the two faced lies. Obviously been taking lessons from Boris Johnson, or even from Sergei Lavrov.

https://www.politico.eu/article/scholz- ... alk-putin/

Scholz, once again, defends Germany over Ukraine support, Putin talks

‘Nobody supplies [weapons] on a similar scale as Germany does,’ German chancellor says, despite evidence to the contrary.

However, Germany is actually ranked fifth in terms of overall military support to Ukraine, according to the Ukraine support tracker by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The United States, the U.K. and Poland claim the top spots. Additionally, some promised German heavy weapons, anti-aircraft tanks and howitzers, still haven’t arrived in Ukraine, despite having been announced months ago amid pressure from allies.

But bet German companies will push to the front of the queue for tasty Ukrainian post-war construction projects.

[wheelnut]

I just think that France and Germany are open to a bit of Putin's soft talk. And blackmail.

Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred.

As much as you would like that not be the case, you are incorrect. At the moment they are still the backbone of the EU.

[irie]

I just think that France and Germany are open to a bit of Putin's soft talk. And blackmail.

Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred.

As much as you would like that not be the case, you are incorrect. At the moment they are still the backbone of the EU.

Your opinion of course.

[Count Steer]

Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred.

As much as you would like that not be the case, you are incorrect. At the moment they are still the backbone of the EU.

Your opinion of course.

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

[irie]

As much as you would like that not be the case, you are incorrect. At the moment they are still the backbone of the EU.

Your opinion of course.

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

[irie]

Putin is off again in his historical La-La Land.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/9 ... -expansion

‘Taking it back’: Vladimir Putin likens self to Peter the Great.

The Russian president draws parallels between Peter the Great’s founding of St Petersburg and modern-day Russia’s ambitions.

Putin also spoke of his country’s need to “take back” territory and “defend itself” as the Kremlin’s forces continued a grinding war of attrition in eastern Ukraine on Thursday.

Any compromise will be seen by Russia as weakness and as a green light for its overt territorial ambitions.

[Count Steer]

Your opinion of course.

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

You are speculating on what might happen. At the current time Germany (and France) are still the 'big beasts' of the EU. That might change, but hoping it will doesn't make it actual.

[irie]

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

You are speculating on what might happen. At the current time Germany (and France) are still the 'big beasts' of the EU. That might change, but hoping it will doesn't make it actual.

Of course I am speculating about what may happen in the future, but I am absolutely not speculating about where ultimate economic power lies.

[Count Steer]

Your opinion of course.

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

You didn't say where 'ultimate power lies', you said -

"Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred".

[slowsider]

Your opinion of course.

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

And Nordstream? Perhaps commissioning would be expedited?

What would Ukraine hope to achieve by destroying the German economy?

[irie]

Mine too.

(They still have the most money).

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

You didn't say where 'ultimate power lies', you said -

"Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred".

Quibbling over semantics.

The powerbase is centred where ultimate power lies.

[Mr. Dazzle]

The powerbase is centred where ultimate power lies.

Alright Karl, sheesh!

[cheb]

"He who can destroy a thing, can control the thing." Paul Atreides 10,193AG.

[slowsider]

So which countries have ultimate power over energy supplies to Western Europe upon which Germany's economic power is founded?

Firstly, Russia, the supplier of course.

And secondly?

Look at the previously posted gas pipeline transit routes from Russia to Western Europe.

If Ukraine faced defeat logically it would destroy gas transit pipelines across its territory thus destroying both the German and the Russian economies.

This is where ultimate power lies.

You didn't say where 'ultimate power lies', you said -

"Agree with you, but France and Germany are no longer where the powerbase is centred".

Quibbling over semantics.

The powerbase is centred where ultimate power lies.

Your 'previously posted gas pipeline transit routes' show a route through Belarus to Germany.
They indicate that Ukraine could fuck up the Italian economy, but that doesn't usually require much help.

[irie]

Seems very likely that the June 2022 French parliamentary elections will result in cohabitation, which coupled with the current Bundestag stalemate in Germany can only result in a (even more) rudderless EU vis-a-vis Ukraine. A Europe yet again rescued par les Anglo-Saxons, especially the USA. How the world changes. Not.

The queue by EU countries for post Ukrainian war reconstruction projects will be unedifying.

Currently looking like Macron will indeed suffer the ignominy of "cohabitation", but we shall see.

https://www.politico.eu/article/macron- ... ing-upset/

Macron to lose parliamentary majority in stunning upset

In what is a major upset for Macron, voters deprived the French president of an absolute majority, early projections show.

PARIS — In a disastrous outcome for French President Emmanuel Macron, his centrist alliance will fall short of an absolute majority in a parliamentary runoff vote that logged significant gains for both the hard left and the far right.

In what is a major upset for the French president, voters massively came out in support of the right-wing National Rally as well as the left-wing coalition NUPES, depriving Macron of a ruling majority, early projections after the second round of the parliamentary elections showed.

[Mr. Dazzle]

I am amused by the fact a centrist party is losing out to the hard left AND the hard right. Seems like compromise is an even dirtier word than usual.