Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[JackyJoll]

Where’s Potter?

Has he changed sides?

[irie]

Reported that Russian troops have entered the Mariupol steel works. Would be surprised if it's not extensively booby-trapped and mined.

[Hoonercat]

Drone footage of Mariupol which is said to be 80% destroyed. The mayor has claimed that 20,000 civilians have died in the city (unconfirmed)

[Yambo]

Drone footage of Mariupol which is said to be 80% destroyed. The mayor has claimed that 20,000 civilians have died in the city (unconfirmed)

I wonder if Russia, wanting Mariupol so badly, can afford to rebuild it.

Maybe they'll go cap in hand to China and their Belt and Road Initiative. But I guess nobody would want a Chinese port on the Black Sea.

[ogri]

At the rate that Putin is getting his military hardware destroyed, China may see an opportunity to take over Russia?

[Hoonercat]

At the rate that Putin is getting his military hardware destroyed, China may see an opportunity to take over Russia?

I should imagine China are sitting back rubbing their hands with glee in the realization that Russian influence in central Asia is likely to decrease significantly. China's gains influence through finance, while Russian influence depends on its supposed military might and its potential threat to its neighbours. It's looking far from mighty at the moment.
Belarus will be interesting, given the mass protests that took place less than 2 years ago after the election.

[Mussels]

Lukashenko had already started distancing himself from this, he gave an interview saying he wasn't part of the decision making or informed about it and he thought the war was dragging on and not going to plan. There have also been stories of Belarusians sabotaging many Russian supply routes through Belarus.
If it's not a translation error and he really did call it a war then he's not so worried about upsetting Putin. He owed Putin a favour and possibly now realised he sold his soul to the devil.
China will be interesting in the long term, on top of Covid Russia has given them huge fuel price increases and an impending food shortage. They nearly have a perfect storm for civil unrest, plus western companies won't be so eager to do business with them so the future doesn't look rosy either.
Chinese companies are stopping business with Russia, even state run banks so this no limits partnership didn't seem to last long.

[Cousin Jack]

China will be interesting in the long term, on top of Covid Russia has given them huge fuel price increases and an impending food shortage. They nearly have a perfect storm for civil unrest, plus western companies won't be so eager to do business with them so the future doesn't look rosy either.
Chinese companies are stopping business with Russia, even state run banks so this no limits partnership didn't seem to last long.

One suspects (and hopes) western governments may be re-evaluating becoming dependent on Russia or China for anything vital too.

[irie]

I wonder if Russia, wanting Mariupol so badly, can afford to rebuild it.

Maybe they'll go cap in hand to China and their Belt and Road Initiative. But I guess nobody would want a Chinese port on the Black Sea.

Russia wants control of Mariupol so that it can safely transport its soldiers and armour south-west to Odessa, I doubt if they give a flying fuck what it's like as they drive through it.

As an aside, given the sophistication of the new western weapon systems currently being shipped to Ukraine I'd guess we've so far seen nothing compared to forthcoming Russian personnel and equipment loss rates.

[Hoonercat]

Victory Day being celebrated in Russia today, perfect timing from some naughty hackers who changed the name of every programme in the Russian TV schedule to:

On your hands is the blood of thousands of Ukrainians and their hundreds of murdered children. TV and the authorities are lying. No to war

Hack.jpg (117.97 KiB) Viewed 547 times

[Hoonercat]

Drone footage of Mariupol which is said to be 80% destroyed. The mayor has claimed that 20,000 civilians have died in the city (unconfirmed)

I wonder if Russia, wanting Mariupol so badly, can afford to rebuild it.

I doubt they care about the infrastructure, other than the port facilities and the rail route linking the city to the Donetsk region and it's abundant supply of grain and energy resources. In the short term, assuming Russia continues to occupy the city, I would imagine they'd repair only the port facilities and rail lines if needed, and migrate Russian workers to temporary housing inside a military zone. The less they leave standing of the city proper, the less incentive for Ukraine to divert its overstretched military to recapture it.

[Horse]

BBC report:

Summary

Vladimir Putin tells a huge military parade in Moscow's Red Square that Russian troops in eastern Ukraine are "defending the motherland"

He says the invasion of Ukraine - what he called a "special military operation" - was necessary and had been provoked by the West

But he does not make any major announcement related to the war, including declaring victory or full-scale mobilisation

[Bwana]

Meanwhile, Siberia burns with no intervention from fire fighters (aka Russian military).

[Hoonercat]

Looks a sthough Finland will be applying to join NATO as early as next week, doubling Russia's land border with NATO countries. Oops...

[Yambo]

Unfortunately, it just gives him another opportunity to tell the Russian people that it's all NATO's fault. The Finns of course have a history of invading Russia, even getting as far as the border once.

But it also means he's going to have to move some of his forces around to counter the 'aggression'.and he hasn't got that many and he hasn't got many decent forces so talk is pretty much all he's got. Apart from nukes of course.

Think he would?

[Yorick]

Last night we had a couple come to see our apartment.
Him Italian her Russian, about 25.
Had been living in Moscow until the invasion then her and young mates fled the country.
They came here for a new life.
Her bank is frozen but his is OK in Italy.
She told me lots of stuff. Not all like I've seen here or on the news. Quite eye opening.

[Hoonercat]

A pity Finland didn't put off the decison until after Sweden. The geopgraphy means Sweden will now have a NATO country between itself and Russia, as well as NATO member Norway protecting its rear, which makes the possibilty of them joining more unlikely.

[JackyJoll]

lots of stuff.

Hey- we hardly need to go down to that level of detail!

[Yambo]

A pity Finland didn't put off the decison until after Sweden. The geopgraphy means Sweden will now have a NATO country between itself and Russia, as well as NATO member Norway protecting its rear, which makes the possibilty of them joining more unlikely.

I'd be very surprised if the Swedes took that attitude.

[Mr Moofo]

Last night we had a couple come to see our apartment.
Him Italian her Russian, about 25.
Had been living in Moscow until the invasion then her and young mates fled the country.
They came here for a new life.
Her bank is frozen but his is OK in Italy.
She told me lots of stuff. Not all like I've seen here or on the news. Quite eye opening.

Such as?