Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

How to support Ukraine ... the German way.

[demographic]

How to support Ukraine ... the German way.

Not sure the value of German oil and gas imports from Russia but I heard on Radio 4 the other day that the UK had imported 220 million pounds worth of Russian oil since the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine started, from memory Greenpeace has been tracking tanker deliveries.

That, plus the fact that people in that there Londongrad and British Overseas Territorys have been aiding Russian Oligarchs launder more money than any other country really isn't something we can be proud of.

It doesn't make Germany any better, but it does at least show theres British people upto their neck in it.

[Hoonercat]

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's view on a complete European ban of Russian energy imports

Europe clearly needs to reduce its dependence on Russia with respect to energy, but we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on, say, oil imports.
That would clearly raise global oil prices, it would have a damaging impact on Europe and on other parts of the world, and, counterintuitively, it could actually have very little negative impact on Russia, because although Russia might export less, the price it gets for its exports would go up

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3275 ... than-good/

[irie]

How to support Ukraine ... the German way.

Not sure the value of German oil and gas imports from Russia but I heard on Radio 4 the other day that the UK had imported 220 million pounds worth of Russian oil since the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine started, from memory Greenpeace has been tracking tanker deliveries.

That was through an unintentional legal loophole which I believe will be closed.

That, plus the fact that people in that there Londongrad and British Overseas Territorys have been aiding Russian Oligarchs launder more money than any other country really isn't something we can be proud of.

Unfortunately (mainly) lawful at the time, but no longer so.

It doesn't make Germany any better, but it does at least show theres British people upto their neck in it.

Yes, there will always be chancers looking for and exploiting legal loopholes, fact of life. When discovered those loopholes should be closed. But refusing to close loopholes is reprehensible.

[Count Steer]

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's view on a complete European ban of Russian energy imports

Europe clearly needs to reduce its dependence on Russia with respect to energy, but we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on, say, oil imports.
That would clearly raise global oil prices, it would have a damaging impact on Europe and on other parts of the world, and, counterintuitively, it could actually have very little negative impact on Russia, because although Russia might export less, the price it gets for its exports would go up

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3275 ... than-good/

Read an article yesterday that questioned why the Ukraine pipeline is intact in the middle of a conflict. It would be a piece of cake to close it/destroy a chunk of it.

Summary: It's not in the best interests of a substantial number (but would give more leverage to some - which may not be desireable). Not Russia, not Ukraine, not Germany or the rest of Europe and, despite the competitive advantage it would give the USA over a big competitor, not the USA.

Just Irie then.

[irie]

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's view on a complete European ban of Russian energy imports

Europe clearly needs to reduce its dependence on Russia with respect to energy, but we need to be careful when we think about a complete European ban on, say, oil imports.
That would clearly raise global oil prices, it would have a damaging impact on Europe and on other parts of the world, and, counterintuitively, it could actually have very little negative impact on Russia, because although Russia might export less, the price it gets for its exports would go up

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/3275 ... than-good/

Read an article yesterday that questioned why the Ukraine pipeline is intact in the middle of a conflict. It would be a piece of cake to close it/destroy a chunk of it.

Summary: It's not in the best interests of a substantial number (but would give more leverage to some - which may not be desireable). Not Russia, not Ukraine, not Germany or the rest of Europe and, despite the competitive advantage it would give the USA over a big competitor, not the USA.

Just Irie then.

What Yellen didn't say (and for obvious reasons couldn't) is that Russian oil would sooner or later end up back on world markets so any price spike would be short term. And of course the short term denial of $Oil would potentially be fatal to the Russian war machine.

Just Count Steer then.

[Felix]

Now now ladies. Screwdrivers post got locked for less

[Count Steer]

Now now ladies. Screwdrivers post got locked for less

Yebbut...he was tangling with a moderator.

[Horse]

Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, has been wounded on the territory of Ukraine, near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Report informs, citing military journalist and blogger Alexander Shulman.

The 66-year-old Russian general received a shrapnel wound in the upper third of the right leg without a bone fracture. The shrapnel was removed; there is no danger to his life. Army General Gerasimov and other officers were sitting at the command post, which got hit by an accurate strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to preliminary information, 20 officers were killed.

The Telegram channel Vertikal reports that the Chief of the Russian General Staff is trying to leave Izium, where the Russian troops are suffering huge losses, and their supplies have been interrupted.

According to the channel, on May 1, an explosion occurred in Izium at the site where the headquarters of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, who recently arrived in the region to personally command the offensive in the Izium operation zone, is located.

[Hoonercat]

According to Sky, Russian troops looted $5m worth of farm machinery from a dealership and had them shipped to Checnya. Oops

However, the thieves were unable to use any of the equipment after the machinery was remotely disabled, with GPS trackers showing the equipment is now being kept at a farm near Chechnya's capital Grozny.
"When the invaders drove the stolen harvesters to Chechnya, they realised that they could not even turn them on, because the harvesters were locked remotely."

Meanwhile, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claims that Hitler was of Jewish descent in a very odd attempt to defend Russia's claims of Ukraine being a nazi state

[Hoonercat]

Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, has been wounded on the territory of Ukraine, near Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Report informs, citing military journalist and blogger Alexander Shulman.

The 66-year-old Russian general received a shrapnel wound in the upper third of the right leg without a bone fracture. The shrapnel was removed; there is no danger to his life. Army General Gerasimov and other officers were sitting at the command post, which got hit by an accurate strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to preliminary information, 20 officers were killed.

The Telegram channel Vertikal reports that the Chief of the Russian General Staff is trying to leave Izium, where the Russian troops are suffering huge losses, and their supplies have been interrupted.

According to the channel, on May 1, an explosion occurred in Izium at the site where the headquarters of the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov, who recently arrived in the region to personally command the offensive in the Izium operation zone, is located.

I think one of the reasons the campaign against Kyiv was such a disaster was due to Ukraine tactics of destroying command and communication centres all along the route.

[Horse]

Supposedly the Russian comms are poor and Ukrainian forces sre eavesdropping on phonr calls to identify key locations.

[irie]

Sergei Lavrov's latest claim that some of the worst anti-Semites (ie Nazis) are themselves Jewish is the latest in a series of increasingly bizarre rants, and obviously aimed at trying to discredit Zelenskyy who is Jewish.

Seems to me that behind these rants is the increasing realisation in the Kremlin that Russia is losing this war. Being reported that about one quarter of Russian forces in Ukraine have been 'rendered ineffective', so that's about 30,000 out of the total force of about 120,000 in Ukraine.

To put that into perspective, that's about 1/6th of total Russian forces of about 160,000 with virtually none of the initial or revised objectives being achieved. And with the huge increase in the latest arms shipments to Ukraine they can expect at least the same again. Or worse.

Panic stations in the Kremlin (imo).

[Supermofo]

Dunno I think this will rumble on for some time. Russian leadership seem very bizarre and willing to argue black is white like a school child with no sense of shame what so ever. I also don't think they really care too much about losses to their own forces, in all real senses they are getting a fair kicking without having achieved much, but I think Putin will value his prestige over loss of life so I think he'll happily feed the meat grinder with poor troops for the foreseeable.

Rational leaders might be rethinking things, but I don't think the Russians think like we do at all. For pretty much their whole living memory it's been them against everyone else and in war they seem happy to use weight of numbers and smashing stuff to shit rather than winning hearts and minds. They are a nation that killed as many of their own as Hitler did and called it a victory.

In the meantime the world economy has got to the wall. What a shithead.

[weeksy]

Dunno I think this will rumble on for some time. Russian leadership seem very bizarre and willing to argue black is white like a school child with no sense of shame what so ever. I also don't think they really care too much about losses to their own forces, in all real senses they are getting a fair kicking without having achieved much, but I think Putin will value his prestige over loss of life so I think he'll happily feed the meat grinder with poor troops for the foreseeable.

Rational leaders might be rethinking things, but I don't think the Russians think like we do at all. For pretty much their whole living memory it's been them against everyone else and in war they seem happy to use weight of numbers and smashing stuff to shit rather than winning hearts and minds. They are a nation that killed as many of their own as Hitler did and called it a victory.

In the meantime the world economy has got to the wall. What a shithead.

I wonder what the Russian public think of the fact they're cannon fodder.

[Count Steer]

27 million Soviets died in WWII. Roughly 50:50 military and civilians. Body count isn't likely to be the reason they pull out as long as the population think that the country is in the right. The control of the media and the national psyche seems to ensure that. You only have to know about Stalingrad to work out that the usual rules don't necessarily apply where Russia is involved.

I think Hoonercat's military analyst called it pretty much spot on.

[Supermofo]

Dunno I think this will rumble on for some time. Russian leadership seem very bizarre and willing to argue black is white like a school child with no sense of shame what so ever. I also don't think they really care too much about losses to their own forces, in all real senses they are getting a fair kicking without having achieved much, but I think Putin will value his prestige over loss of life so I think he'll happily feed the meat grinder with poor troops for the foreseeable.

Rational leaders might be rethinking things, but I don't think the Russians think like we do at all. For pretty much their whole living memory it's been them against everyone else and in war they seem happy to use weight of numbers and smashing stuff to shit rather than winning hearts and minds. They are a nation that killed as many of their own as Hitler did and called it a victory.

In the meantime the world economy has got to the wall. What a shithead.

I wonder what the Russian public think of the fact they're cannon fodder.

I suspect they are used to it sadly. Compare our WW2 experience and freedoms since with Russia's. Until the mid point of their war Russia would regularly only arm a 1/3rd of their troops with the other 2/3rds expected to pick up the dead ones weapons. That'd simply not have happened with western units, they wouldn't have done it. Russian's fight wars differently to us.

Ask the average person on the street here about their views on something and they'll spout freely. Do the same in Russia and 99.5% of the time you'll get what they think the state want to hear, it's sadly what they are used to. They know it's shit but are too scared to speak out/do anything.

[Hoonercat]

Meanwhile, Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov claims that Hitler was of Jewish descent in a very odd attempt to defend Russia's claims of Ukraine being a nazi state

If that was an odd outburst, it got worse today. Why make a diplomatic spat with Israel even worse, considering it has pretty much sat on the fence with regards to the war in Ukraine?

But on Tuesday, Russia's foreign ministry doubled down on Lavrov's comments, tweeting that Lapid had made "anti-historical statements... which largely explain why the current Israeli government supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv".

[JamJar]

I suspect they are used to it sadly. Compare our WW2 experience and freedoms since with Russia's. Until the mid point of their war Russia would regularly only arm a 1/3rd of their troops with the other 2/3rds expected to pick up the dead ones weapons. That'd simply not have happened with western units, they wouldn't have done it. Russian's fight wars differently to us.

Actually this only really happened in the early part of the German Invasion when Soviet forces were routed and then ordered to counterattack… in fact by December 1941 Zhukov forbad full frontal assaults like the bullshit we see in Hollywood movies

[wheelnut]

Dunno I think this will rumble on for some time. Russian leadership seem very bizarre and willing to argue black is white like a school child with no sense of shame what so ever.

A lesson learned from Trump.