Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

People keep talking about failure to win. Who exactly said that they expected to be in Kyiv by lunchtime on the first day? Mainly people were talking about a land bridge to Crimea and, looking at the map that's nearly done. If he consolidates in the Donbas and pushes through Odessa to/from Moldova (which will be more difficult than Mariupol probably), the West will probably go 'Oh well' and settle for a partition arrangement that keeps lots of troops and equipment tied up. All he needs to do is keep NATO pondering on the nuclear threat.

It's cost more than expected in terms of troops and equipment but they have quite a lot of them/that.

Above all, he'll still be in power and, like most politicians, that is objective no. 1. He'll claim that the land bridge was the objective and therefore a win. Meanwhile large chunks of what's left of Ukraine will be in ruins. If that's a victory for Ukraine and the West it's a Pyrrhic one.

In that event what would be the alternative?

Driving the Russians out completely, deposing Putin, exacting reparations from Russia to rebuild Ukraine and creating a cordon sanitaire outside the current Ukrainian border?

How un-Pyrrhic (unrealistic) would you like?

Edit: You can add giving Belarus a thick ear and topping their leader as well if you wish.

Anything inbetween, or is this a binary choice?

[Hoonercat]

I'm not sure the figure was completely the gist of the statement though and as much the fact that Germany are still paying them, rather than the actual figures.

I'm pretty sure that most countries are still 'paying them' in one way or another, exports from Russia haven't completely stopped, sanctions are targetted at certain items and vary by country, though oil and gas are the headliners.

Russian imports from China rose 25.9% to $16.44 billion, while its exports to China jumped 31% to $21.73 billion in the first quarter of the year.
In March alone, the first full month since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia exported $7.84 billion worth of goods to the Chinese market.

[Horse]

Yup, gradually tightening down. Six days ago the UK announced trade sanctions targeting luxury goods including caviar, silver and diamonds.

[JamJar]

I'm not sure the figure was completely the gist of the statement though and as much the fact that Germany are still paying them, rather than the actual figures.

I'm pretty sure that most countries are still 'paying them' in one way or another, exports from Russia haven't completely stopped, sanctions are targetted at certain items and vary by country, though oil and gas are the headliners.

Russian imports from China rose 25.9% to $16.44 billion, while its exports to China jumped 31% to $21.73 billion in the first quarter of the year.
In March alone, the first full month since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, Russia exported $7.84 billion worth of goods to the Chinese market.

I was going to say the same, we still buy Russian Oil until at least the end of this year.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

China and India will cheerfully buy Russian oil, and then the UK will buy products made with that oil.

[irie]

Seems very likely that the June 2022 French parliamentary elections will result in cohabitation, which coupled with the current Bundestag stalemate in Germany can only result in a (even more) rudderless EU vis-a-vis Ukraine. A Europe yet again rescued par les Anglo-Saxons, especially the USA. How the world changes. Not.

The queue by EU countries for post Ukrainian war reconstruction projects will be unedifying.

[Hoonercat]

One gets the feeling that Putin is becoming increasingly irrational.

Having failed to win a very limited war against a single country he is now seriously threatening NATO?

People keep talking about failure to win. Who exactly said that they expected to be in Kyiv by lunchtime on the first day? Mainly people were talking about a land bridge to Crimea and, looking at the map that's nearly done. If he consolidates in the Donbas and pushes through Odessa to/from Moldova (which will be more difficult than Mariupol probably), the West will probably go 'Oh well' and settle for a partition arrangement that keeps lots of troops and equipment tied up. All he needs to do is keep NATO pondering on the nuclear threat.

It's cost more than expected in terms of troops and equipment but they have quite a lot of them/that.

Above all, he'll still be in power and, like most politicians, that is objective no. 1. He'll claim that the land bridge was the objective and therefore a win. Meanwhile large chunks of what's left of Ukraine will be in ruins. If that's a victory for Ukraine and the West it's a Pyrrhic one.

The war won't end just because Putin claims to have achieved what he set out to do. Ukraine has no future if it is cut off from the Black Sea, economically I very much doubt it could survive as an independent state without that sea trade so I can't see any outcome that involves Zelensky giving up Ukraine's coastal territories in return for peace.
There's also the small matter of Ukraine having the third largest untapped energy reserves in Europe (behind Russia and Norway) which just happen to be largely in the East and South of Ukraine. Before Zelensky came to power, the system was totally corrupt, but he has opened it up to foreign companies which could, over time, make Ukraine completely self-sufficient in energy (and no longer dependent on Russia), as well as being a supplier to the European markets.
Occupying the east and south of Ukraine not only deprives Ukraine of its future energy independence and potential energy exports, it also cuts off its farming trade to Africa and the Middle East (while ridding Russia of its competition). As long as there is a Ukrainian army willing to fight, I think the West will continue to support them with military equipment in the knowledge that the longer the war lasts, the more difficult it becomes for Russia to finance.

[Screwdriver]

Before Zelensky came to power, the system was totally corrupt, but he has opened it up to foreign companies which could, over time, make Ukraine completely corrupt.

Fixed for you.

[Horse]

Before Zelensky came to power, the system was totally corrupt, but he has opened it up to foreign companies which could, over time, make Ukraine completely corrupt.

Fixed for you.

Are there any countries where there isn't any sort of corruption, jobs for mates, old boys network, etc.?

[Screwdriver]

Are there any countries where there isn't any sort of corruption, jobs for mates, old boys network, etc.?

No. Not that I know of. I think the idea is you pick a side and pretend you’re the good guys.

Problem is this pandemic has accelerated the takeover of our democratic system by global corporations. I honestly believe the UK is still absolutely the best country in the world but it is important I think not to let the powers that be go too far and call it when you see it. Our political system is corrupt of course but it’s not as overt as larger national/sovereign entities like the USA and (yes) the EU.

So while Ukraine may escape the evil clutches of an overt oligarchy, it will fall prey to our own increasingly autocratic, corporatised empire. But that nominally works in our favour so that’s a good thing right?

[Cousin Jack]

Are there any countries where there isn't any sort of corruption, jobs for mates, old boys network, etc.?

No. Not that I know of. I think the idea is you pick a side and pretend you’re the good guys.

Problem is this pandemic has accelerated the takeover of our democratic system by global corporations. I honestly believe the UK is still absolutely the best country in the world but it is important I think not to let the powers that be go too far and call it when you see it. Our political system is corrupt of course but it’s not as overt as larger national/sovereign entities like the USA and (yes) the EU.

So while Ukraine may escape the evil clutches of an overt oligarchy, it will fall prey to our own increasingly autocratic, corporatised empire. But that nominally works in our favour so that’s a good thing right?

The only way to tell which is best is to check with the people who live under the regime. Would you prefer to live in Russia (or China) under their version of democracy, or in the corrupt West. I know which I prefer, I suspect I know which the majority of people would prefer - not many refugees from the West try to escape to Russia.

[DefTrap]

Yeah, of course "my regime is the best regime".
Snigger.

[Horse]

Yeah, of course "my regime is the best regime".
Snigger.

With the test of: how bad are the consequences if you disagree?

USA - banned from Twitter
China - bullet-assured breathing ban

[slowsider]

Yeah, of course "my regime is the best regime".
Snigger.

With the test of: how bad are the consequences if you disagree?

USA - banned from Twitter
China - bullet-assured breathing ban

May vary according to your skin tone.

[DefTrap]

Yeah, of course "my regime is the best regime".
Snigger.

With the test of: how bad are the consequences if you disagree?

USA - banned from Twitter
China - bullet-assured breathing ban

You forgot ....

UK - I, and only I, can read between the lines. I see the truth!

[irie]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-ai ... covid/#app

Washington — The Biden administration is asking Congress to add at least $10 billion in new spending for humanitarian assistance and military operations related to Ukraine — a sharp uptick in requested spending from just a few days ago.

Which is the USA's response to Putin's threat ...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/2 ... n-security

Western arms supplies to Ukraine are posing a threat to European security, Russia says after warning any attempt to “interfere” in the country will be met with a swift response from Moscow.

“In itself, the tendency to pump weapons, including heavy weapons, to Ukraine and other countries are actions that threaten the security of the continent and provoke instability,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday.

Rank hypocrisy.

[Yambo]

The Russians have pretty much shown us recently that a 'swift response' should have started a week ago.

I don't really know if my Cold War soldiering was worthwhile (I'm well aware that Moscow downsized) but when I was in Berlin, 1975 - 1977, the USSR had about 11 divisions within about an hour of Berlin and if you can believe it, expected to be at the Channel ports within a week!

There was a Soviet tank workshop in Magdeburg at that time (you'd see it from the military train that ran to Berlin from Helmstedt). There were more tanks in that workshop than NATO had in W Germany. OK,they were mostly T55s but even so . . .

[Hoonercat]

$33bn, including $20bn military aid according to the BBC and other media outlets. That's a huge amount, moreso if it encourages other nations to ramp up their support.

President Biden is asking Congress for $33bn (£27bn) in military, economic and humanitarian assistance to support Ukraine - although he insisted that the US was not "attacking Russia".

Mr Biden said it was "critical" for US lawmakers to approve the deal, which he said would help Ukraine defend itself.

The proposal includes more than $20bn in military aid, $8.5bn in economic aid and $3bn in humanitarian aid.

[wheelnut]

The Russians have pretty much shown us recently that a 'swift response' should have started a week ago.

I don't really know if my Cold War soldiering was worthwhile (I'm well aware that Moscow downsized) but when I was in Berlin, 1975 - 1977, the USSR had about 11 divisions within about an hour of Berlin and if you can believe it, expected to be at the Channel ports within a week!

There was a Soviet tank workshop in Magdeburg at that time (you'd see it from the military train that ran to Berlin from Helmstedt). There were more tanks in that workshop than NATO had in W Germany. OK,they were mostly T55s but even so . . .

I wonder if they’re starting to realise that yachts and Black Sea palaces are quite expensive after all?

[Hoonercat]

Bulgaria has today requested that all citizens living in Moldova should leave immediately 'by any means possible'.
Last week I posted a vid by an analyst based in the region who laid out the Russian plan of attack a few days before the invasion, with pretty much perfect accuracy. In another video, he also suggested that Russia would want to push on into Moldova. His reasoning was that Russia will soon come to a point where it cannot afford to protect its vast western borders (regardless of sanctions), and controlling Moldova gives it a natural barrier against western nations with the Carpathian Mountain range being situated to the east in Romania past the Siret river. Control of Moldova would also allow Russia to annex the far west of Ukraine through which the Carpathian Mountains also run. This woud allow Russia to concentrate their main forces along the exposed European plain, as their exposed border would have been reduced from 2000km to 600km. With Ukraine pretty much encircled and without access to the Black Sea, it would be cut off from the rest of Europe making it impossible for the west to supply arms, while its economy would be ruined.