Screwdriver wrote: ↑Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:38 pm
Sadly I fear this will lead to the inevitable use of chemical agents to flush them out or just exterminate them where they hide.
I think you're right With thermobaric as another way.
No witnesses to remain and report. No evidence available to be reviewed.
In spite of the fact that the EU is paying Russia about €6bn per week for energy, which is financing Russia's was against Ukraine, I still believe that Russia will lose this war. The EU has pledged €1bn aid to Ukraine but this is of course a tax paid on on the €6bn per week energy supplies.
Any takers to bet against Ukraine winning this war?
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
irie wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 7:28 pm
In spite of the fact that the EU is paying Russia about €6bn per week for energy, which is financing Russia's was against Ukraine, I still believe that Russia will lose this war. The EU has pledged €1bn aid to Ukraine but this is of course a tax paid on on the €6bn per week energy supplies.
Any takers to bet against Ukraine winning this war?
You'll need to define what 'winning' looks like. Half the country in ruins, no coastal territory and ~1/3 of the country subject to Russian control/trench warfare or all Russians and their sympathisers gone and $trillions pouring in for rebuilding. It's a wide spectrum.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Voltaire
irie wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 7:28 pm
In spite of the fact that the EU is paying Russia about €6bn per week for energy, which is financing Russia's was against Ukraine, I still believe that Russia will lose this war. The EU has pledged €1bn aid to Ukraine but this is of course a tax paid on on the €6bn per week energy supplies.
Any takers to bet against Ukraine winning this war?
You'll need to define what 'winning' looks like. Half the country in ruins, no coastal territory and ~1/3 of the country subject to Russian control/trench warfare or all Russians and their sympathisers gone and $trillions pouring in for rebuilding. It's a wide spectrum.
Put simply, "winning looks like" Russia having no more effective control over any more Ukrainian territory than it did before the war.
Edit: put simply
Last edited by irie on Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
And even if they 'win' (put the main Ukrainian armed forces out of action) and overrun the country, Russian forces will be an army of occupation and likely to endure continous guerilla action.
That occupation would be a huge, ongoing, drain on Russian resources. If they're struggling now, having - you'd think - time to plan and prepare, you have to wonder how they think that they will be able to sustain it.
This conflict is The West vs The Russian Federation. Putin's gross misadventure will ultimately lead to the diminution of The Russian Federation and accentuate the superiority of Western (especially so-called "Anglo-Saxon") economic power and intellectual technology. With Sweden and Finland joining NATO and Ukraine (eventually) being rebuilt, Russia will become encircled on its Western borders. A stark lesson in unintended consequences.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
irie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:43 pm
...................., Russia will become encircled on its Western borders. A stark lesson in unintended consequences.
Another may be the end of Mr Putin.
Oh the Russian 'people' may swallow his lies, but the other 'powers behind the throne' must be getting mightily pissed off. If enough of them get pissed off enough Mr Putin may get unelected as President for Life.
Thanks to sanctions, tens of thousands of "luxury" vehicles are now stacked up in a car park in Zebrugge. They ain't goin' nowhere. So that's tens of thousands of everyday Russians who won't be getting the car they ordered.
irie wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 5:06 am
A street sign in Poland reads "Don't feed Putin". But Germany is still feeding Putin to the extent of about €6bn per week. Blood money ...
According to your beloved Politico, Germany paid Russia €40bn for oil, gas and coal in 2021, that's approx €0.77bn per week. We are now in April, you are using a figure from January or February, when demand is at it's highest, and presenting it is a current figure.
The only figure I can find which in any way relates to your claim is from Bruegel and refers to the potential cost for the entire EU, should prices continue to rise.
And if energy prices continue to rise, the amount of money Europe pays to Russia each day will keep increasing and could average $850 million per day in the first half of 2022, according to our calculations
I'm not sure the figure was completely the gist of the statement though and as much the fact that Germany are still paying them, rather than the actual figures.
Cousin Jack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:59 am
One gets the feeling that Putin is becoming increasingly irrational.
Having failed to win a very limited war against a single country he is now seriously threatening NATO?
People keep talking about failure to win. Who exactly said that they expected to be in Kyiv by lunchtime on the first day? Mainly people were talking about a land bridge to Crimea and, looking at the map that's nearly done. If he consolidates in the Donbas and pushes through Odessa to/from Moldova (which will be more difficult than Mariupol probably), the West will probably go 'Oh well' and settle for a partition arrangement that keeps lots of troops and equipment tied up. All he needs to do is keep NATO pondering on the nuclear threat.
It's cost more than expected in terms of troops and equipment but they have quite a lot of them/that.
Above all, he'll still be in power and, like most politicians, that is objective no. 1. He'll claim that the land bridge was the objective and therefore a win. Meanwhile large chunks of what's left of Ukraine will be in ruins. If that's a victory for Ukraine and the West it's a Pyrrhic one.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Voltaire
weeksy wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:07 am
I'm not sure the figure was completely the gist of the statement though and as much the fact that Germany are still paying them, rather than the actual figures.
That was indeed the gist of the statement.
Google says that Germany paid Russia over €2.5b for oil and gas in January and I don't know the figure for coal. In which case the weekly figure for Germany alone would be at least €600m per week on a pro rata basis. The €6bn per week could well be total EU imports of Russian energy.
Edit: on a pro rata basis
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Cousin Jack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:59 am
One gets the feeling that Putin is becoming increasingly irrational.
Having failed to win a very limited war against a single country he is now seriously threatening NATO?
People keep talking about failure to win. Who exactly said that they expected to be in Kyiv by lunchtime on the first day? Mainly people were talking about a land bridge to Crimea and, looking at the map that's nearly done. If he consolidates in the Donbas and pushes through Odessa to/from Moldova (which will be more difficult than Mariupol probably), the West will probably go 'Oh well' and settle for a partition arrangement that keeps lots of troops and equipment tied up. All he needs to do is keep NATO pondering on the nuclear threat.
It's cost more than expected in terms of troops and equipment but they have quite a lot of them/that.
Above all, he'll still be in power and, like most politicians, that is objective no. 1. He'll claim that the land bridge was the objective and therefore a win. Meanwhile large chunks of what's left of Ukraine will be in ruins. If that's a victory for Ukraine and the West it's a Pyrrhic one.
In that event what would be the alternative?
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Cousin Jack wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:59 am
One gets the feeling that Putin is becoming increasingly irrational.
Having failed to win a very limited war against a single country he is now seriously threatening NATO?
People keep talking about failure to win. Who exactly said that they expected to be in Kyiv by lunchtime on the first day? Mainly people were talking about a land bridge to Crimea and, looking at the map that's nearly done. If he consolidates in the Donbas and pushes through Odessa to/from Moldova (which will be more difficult than Mariupol probably), the West will probably go 'Oh well' and settle for a partition arrangement that keeps lots of troops and equipment tied up. All he needs to do is keep NATO pondering on the nuclear threat.
It's cost more than expected in terms of troops and equipment but they have quite a lot of them/that.
Above all, he'll still be in power and, like most politicians, that is objective no. 1. He'll claim that the land bridge was the objective and therefore a win. Meanwhile large chunks of what's left of Ukraine will be in ruins. If that's a victory for Ukraine and the West it's a Pyrrhic one.
In that event what would be the alternative?
Driving the Russians out completely, deposing Putin, exacting reparations from Russia to rebuild Ukraine and creating a cordon sanitaire outside the current Ukrainian border?
How un-Pyrrhic (unrealistic) would you like?
Edit: You can add giving Belarus a thick ear and topping their leader as well if you wish.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Voltaire
With thermobaric as another way. 
