Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[DefTrap]

That's not really news is it? Modern forces don't really have masses of crack troops in reserve just in case loads of them get killed and wounded Not sure they ever did. Months of war soon takes its toll.
By the time my great grandad (a trained soldier of at least 10 years, albeit no combat experience) was wounded at ypres in October 1914, they were already accepting volunteers in their mid teens.

[irie]

That's not really news is it? Modern forces don't really have masses of crack troops in reserve just in case loads of them get killed and wounded Not sure they ever did. Months of war soon takes its toll.
By the time my great grandad (a trained soldier of at least 10 years, albeit no combat experience) was wounded at ypres in October 1914, they were already accepting volunteers in their mid teens.

Maybe not news to you, but it is news to me that Russia is calling up these older troops. Which is also an implicit admission that the current (160,000+?) troops have failed. The annual spring Russian conscription call up of about 134.000 (?) obviously can not now be sent to fight given that it seems to be common knowledge that conscripts have been killed on active service in Ukraine in direct violation of Russian law.

[Hoonercat]

I watched this analysis a couple of days before the invasion and gave it another look today to see how it had aged. It turned out to be very accurate for the most part, though the author did expect a 3-phase invasion rather than Russia going all-in. He expected Kyiv to be the final phase, and given the complete logistical disaster of the Kyiv push, it's quite possible that he was right and those plans changed at a late stage which would explain why the forces heading to Kyiv was so badly prepared.
If you watch the vid, keep in mind that this is a prediction of the plans, rather than how those plans would play out. As he points out, no plan survives first contact with the enemy. The most interesting part of the vid for me is how the invasion was expected to progress once the initial objectives had been met, when compared to recent maps showing the actual Russian advances (or lack of).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNIU6TRsRzk&t=437s

[Horse]

If you watch the vid

I'm going to be driving for much of the next 4 hours, so best not

Synopsis?

[Asian Boss]

It’s time Potter came back, to put the point of view of the elite Russian forces.

And sparks who saw through science; beat The Bank of England; and undermined the UN.

[Cousin Jack]

Maybe not news to you, but it is news to me that Russia is calling up these older troops. Which is also an implicit admission that the current (160,000+?) troops have failed. The annual spring Russian conscription call up of about 134.000 (?) obviously can not now be sent to fight given that it seems to be common knowledge that conscripts have been killed on active service in Ukraine in direct violation of Russian law.

Do you really think Putin gives a tinkers fcuk about law, Russian or otherwise?

[Mussels]

Maybe not news to you, but it is news to me that Russia is calling up these older troops. Which is also an implicit admission that the current (160,000+?) troops have failed. The annual spring Russian conscription call up of about 134.000 (?) obviously can not now be sent to fight given that it seems to be common knowledge that conscripts have been killed on active service in Ukraine in direct violation of Russian law.

Do you really think Putin gives a tinkers fcuk about law, Russian or otherwise?

Putin might not care much but he has a constant struggle keeping Russian people quiet, he can only arrest so many thousand people before he hits a tipping point.

[irie]

Maybe not news to you, but it is news to me that Russia is calling up these older troops. Which is also an implicit admission that the current (160,000+?) troops have failed. The annual spring Russian conscription call up of about 134.000 (?) obviously can not now be sent to fight given that it seems to be common knowledge that conscripts have been killed on active service in Ukraine in direct violation of Russian law.

Do you really think Putin gives a tinkers fcuk about law, Russian or otherwise?

Putin doesn't, but Russian mothers and wives do. In Russia almost anyone can be locked up for dissent, but not the mothers and wives of dead and injured soldiers. The more dead and wounded are repatriated to Russia the more the dissent will increase (imo). They potentially have enormous political power, it's been seen before.

[Cousin Jack]

Putin might not care much but he has a constant struggle keeping Russian people quiet, he can only arrest so many thousand people before he hits a tipping point.

Putin doesn't, but Russian mothers and wives do. In Russia almost anyone can be locked up for dissent, but not the mothers and wives of dead and injured soldiers. The more dead and wounded are repatriated to Russia the more the dissent will increase (imo). They potentially have enormous political power, it's been seen before.

I hope you are both right, however my suspicion is that it will head towards the North Korean model, absolute control and dissenters disappear. That has happened before, remember recent Chinese and Cambodian history. Dictators do not give up control willingly.

[Greenman]

Breaking News:

"Ukraine Destroys Russian convoy in Lviv whilst Russian fighters also continue to fight with weapons supplied by the west" - "shit Charles we need to cut that last bit out"..."fuck"!

"Boris is going to kill us now Edward you bafoon"

Friday night spliff

Bong...

[Hoonercat]

Russia warns Finland and Sweden about joining NATO.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61066503

Mr Peskov warned the bloc "is not that kind of alliance which ensures peace and stability, and its further expansion will not bring additional security to the European continent".
Last week Mr Peskov said that Russia would have to "rebalance the situation" with its own measures were Sweden and Finland to join Nato.
And in February Maria Zakharova, Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman, warned of "military and political consequences" if the countries joined the bloc.

Kudos to him for saying it while keeping a straight face

[Felix]

Bong...

Bong you say. Back o my bus

[irie]

All the media is full of how Russia is amassing forces and moving them to South West Russia to attack Donbas and Mariupol, but very little about Ukrainian forces and arms movements.

By all accounts Putin does not have a mobile phone and relies solely on reports made to him by Kremlin officials. It seems that he has recently removed many senior FSB, military, and other officials. My guess is that he still believes that his forces are superior and have been let down solely by poor leadership.

Thus he still comprehends neither the strength and motivation of Ukrainian resistance nor the overwhelming technological advantage of Western weapons in Ukrainian hands.

I suspect a trap is being set for Putin.

[JackyJoll]

I suspect a trap is being set for Putin.

Should we mark your words?

[slowsider]

I suspect a trap is being set for Putin.

Should we mark your words?

I bet the trap is a cunning and subtle one.

[irie]

I suspect a trap is being set for Putin.

Should we mark your words?

Quote the entire post, no probs.

[Hoonercat]

I would imagine the tide of battle will turn against Ukraine now in the south and south east, they're heavily outnumbered and outgunned. Mariupol is about to fall and Russia already controls much of the Donbas region, if they decide to go on the defensive it takes the advantage away from Ukraine's more mobile forces and their hit and run tactics.

[JackyJoll]

Show me the country where the bombs had to fall.

https://youtu.be/6lFPIIdud9o

[Horse]

, but very little about Ukrainian forces and arms

Deliberately. I doubt (and hope) that nothing would be made public that would provide the Russian forces any benefit.

[Mussels]

"I sunk your battleship"
That's gotta sting, embarrassing as that's the ship the admiral would have been on.