Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

SO where are they going to get it ? Assuming they don't have enough to power the country.

By doing this, and by all Western nations participating to help share energy to help bring this war to as speedy end as possible.

As it now stands, Ukraine is being supplied with increasing arms and munitions to in order to try to counter Russian forces financed by the ~€6bn per week paid by European countries. An obscene equation with the huge costs clearly visible in emerging images.

You'd assume they've thought of this..... ?

But clearly haven't implemented it....

Why would that be ? because it's not actually possible ?

It certainly is possible and is currently being considered, but one or more states critical to the success of the above have so far refused to participate.

[irie]

I'm more surprised that Russia hasn't turned the gas off.

I'm not.

[slowsider]

By doing this, and by all Western nations participating to help share energy to help bring this war to as speedy end as possible.

As it now stands, Ukraine is being supplied with increasing arms and munitions to in order to try to counter Russian forces financed by the ~€6bn per week paid by European countries. An obscene equation with the huge costs clearly visible in emerging images.

You'd assume they've thought of this..... ?

But clearly haven't implemented it....

Why would that be ? because it's not actually possible ?

It certainly is possible and is currently being considered, but one or more states critical to the success of the above have so far refused to participate.

You mean the ones who dont use it are shouting loudest, and the ones who do are contemplating devastation of their economies?

[Mussels]

I love a bit of hypothetical supposition.

There are a few ways things can go now, which will be a far more interesting discussion than historical 'what ifs'. For example, Putin clearly cannot be trusted as a world leader in the future which puts Russia's standing on the world stage in a bit of a hole. If he wants a strong, important Russia he's going to have to do some serious back-pedaling but even if he does, he still can't be trusted over anything.

Is he in control? He doesn't appear to be in control of the army that invaded Ukraine unless of course we has ordered the attacks on civilians. Those attacks, easily labelled war crimes, carry the stench of poor leadership, indiscipline, low morale and incompetence. Putin can't really talk his way out of any of that.

He quite possibly doesn't actually know what is going on as he isn't in control of his generals. Their fear of him (probably for their own lives or the lives of their families) results in them just telling him what they think he wants to hear. That's not leadership.

I can't see any way out for him tbh and I don't know enough about him (does anybody?) to suggest what he'll do to start getting out of his hole. He's not going to leave much of a legacy though, whatever he does. Russia under Putin is just a big dead elephant in the room. It's going to take a bit of sorting.

I read an article by a Russian officer who was part of the Georgia invasion and that's pretty much what he said, it's very difficult to control soldiers who feel they have been sent for slaughter.

As for cutting off Russian gas, the EU want the gas and Russia wants the money but also nobody wants Putin to feel like he's completely cornered as he's likely to lash out in other ways

[Lutin]

Apparently the Russian embassy in Dublin is running out of heating oil - Russian Embassy urges Irish government to intervene as it faces fuel shortage with companies refusing to deliver supplies

The Russian Embassy in Ireland is running out of fuel for heating and hot water and is complaining that numerous Irish oil companies have refused to deliver supplies.

It has forced the embassy to write a letter to Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney’s department asking the Government to intervene before they run out.

In a letter seen by the Irish Mirror, the Russians – ironically one of the world’s biggest oil exporters before the Ukraine invasion – have requested Foreign Affairs “intervenes into this clearly discriminatory case”.

How's that for a non-military response?

[irie]

As for cutting off Russian gas, the EU want the gas and Russia wants the money but also nobody wants Putin to feel like he's completely cornered as he's likely to lash out in other ways

Russia might not have the money for much longer.

https://www.politico.eu/article/pressur ... ssian-oil/

EU weighs ban on Russian oil over war crimes as pressure builds on Berlin

Reports of rape and murder by retreating Russian soldiers seem set to mark a tipping point, but Germany may still prevent tough EU response.

Perhaps playing for time until the weather warms up

[Mr. Dazzle]

Apparently the Russian embassy in Dublin is running out of heating oil - Russian Embassy urges Irish government to intervene as it faces fuel shortage with companies refusing to deliver supplies

The Latvians have renamed the street in Riga which is home to the Russian embassy. Just for the one little stretch where the embassy is.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Embas ... 24.1083298

"Ukrainas neatkaribas iela" translates to "Independent Ukraine Street".

[slowsider]

Not to be outdone

RESIDENTS OF ORWELL Road in Dublin, where the Russian embassy is based, are expected to be consulted on a proposal to change the name of to Independent Ukraine Road.

All 20 councillors at the Dundrum area monthly meeting of Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council unanimously agreed that the name of the road should be changed, but that the residents should be consulted.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thejou ... 2/%3famp=1

[Count Steer]

I'm going to change the name of my house from 'Dunroamin' to 'Putinisawazzock'.

[Hoonercat]

I'm more surprised that Russia hasn't turned the gas off.

I'm not.

Really?

If Russia does invade Ukraine and this happens ...

"If Russia invades - that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again - then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,"

... then existing Russian gas flows will also be cut off thus the lights will go out in much of continental Europe:

As a result I wouldn't be surprised to see increasing amounts of Russian gas diverted to the east (China) thus starving continental Europe of energy.

Olaf Scholz is a powerless puppet whose strings are pulled in different directions by the tripartite coalition partners, the Social Democrats, Greens and the Free Democrats. Rather than going to Moscow the best thing he can do is wait in Berlin for the lights to go out.

You appear to have gone from 'the lights will go out' to 'Europe should stop buying Russian gas, they'll manage just fine'.

[Hoonercat]

It's not always a good idea to admit countries to NATO, Hungary is looking a bit iffy.

But if Hungary had been admitted would it have still been the country that it is now? At a guess probably not.

Given that Hungary has been a NATO member since 1999, you might want to guess again.

[irie]

It's not always a good idea to admit countries to NATO, Hungary is looking a bit iffy.

But if Hungary had been admitted would it have still been the country that it is now? At a guess probably not.

My mistake, Hungary is a NATO member.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm

[Horse]

It's not always a good idea to admit countries to NATO, Hungary is looking a bit iffy.

But if Hungary had been admitted would it have still been the country that it is now? At a guess probably not.

Given that Hungary has been a NATO member since 1999, you might want to guess again.

Isn't being on ignore wonderful?

[Count Steer]

I'm more surprised that Russia hasn't turned the gas off.

I'm not.

Really?

If Russia does invade Ukraine and this happens ...

"If Russia invades - that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again - then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,"

... then existing Russian gas flows will also be cut off thus the lights will go out in much of continental Europe:

As a result I wouldn't be surprised to see increasing amounts of Russian gas diverted to the east (China) thus starving continental Europe of energy.

Olaf Scholz is a powerless puppet whose strings are pulled in different directions by the tripartite coalition partners, the Social Democrats, Greens and the Free Democrats. Rather than going to Moscow the best thing he can do is wait in Berlin for the lights to go out.

You appear to have gone from 'the lights will go out' to 'Europe should stop buying Russian gas, they'll manage just fine'.

I suspect that the primary hope is that the lights go out in Europe. Irie probably doesn't care who turns them off.

[Hoonercat]

Preventable of course if Ukraine had been a member of NATO.

https://www.politico.eu/article/zelensk ... -nato-bid/

Zelenskyy calls out Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy for blocking Ukraine’s NATO bid

‘I invite Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy to visit Bucha, to see what the policy of 14 years of concessions to Russia has led to,’ Ukrainian president says.

He is being a little economical with the truth there. While it is true that both Ukraine and Georgia were told they would eventually become NATO members, President Yanukovych scrapped those plans when he came to power in 2010, and it wasn't until 2014 that NATO membership was back on the agenda for Ukraine. The country has had 8 years to prepare for membership but still doesn't meet all of the requirements. Georgia, on the other hand, did meet the requirements, and 3/4months later found Russian tanks rolling across its borders (as Merkel had indirectly predicted).
While I agree that the probability of Russia invading a NATO-member Ukraine would have decreased, Zelensky needs to look a bit closer to home if he wants to do a bit of finger pointing.

[Count Steer]

Preventable of course if Ukraine had been a member of NATO.

https://www.politico.eu/article/zelensk ... -nato-bid/

Zelenskyy calls out Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy for blocking Ukraine’s NATO bid

‘I invite Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy to visit Bucha, to see what the policy of 14 years of concessions to Russia has led to,’ Ukrainian president says.

He is being a little economical with the truth there. While it is true that both Ukraine and Georgia were told they would eventually become NATO members, President Yanukovych scrapped those plans when he came to power in 2010, and it wasn't until 2014 that NATO membership was back on the agenda for Ukraine. The country has had 8 years to prepare for membership but still doesn't meet all of the requirements. Georgia, on the other hand, did meet the requirements, and 3/4months later found Russian tanks rolling across its borders (as Merkel had indirectly predicted).
While I agree that the probability of Russia invading a NATO-member Ukraine would have decreased, Zelensky needs to look a bit closer to home if he wants to do a bit of finger pointing.

Anything from Politico comes with a hefty pinch of salt anyway. It's owned by Axel Springer SE who will not employ anyone who specifically doesn't support 'transcontinental relations', EU integration and Israel. It is generally thought that Axel Springer himself started his publishing empire with a $7M sub from the CIA. His Wikipedia entry makes interested reading.

Politico is not exactly a bastion of liberal minded free thinkers.

[irie]

I'm not.

Really?

If Russia does invade Ukraine and this happens ...

... then existing Russian gas flows will also be cut off thus the lights will go out in much of continental Europe:

As a result I wouldn't be surprised to see increasing amounts of Russian gas diverted to the east (China) thus starving continental Europe of energy.

Olaf Scholz is a powerless puppet whose strings are pulled in different directions by the tripartite coalition partners, the Social Democrats, Greens and the Free Democrats. Rather than going to Moscow the best thing he can do is wait in Berlin for the lights to go out.

You appear to have gone from 'the lights will go out' to 'Europe should stop buying Russian gas, they'll manage just fine'.

I suspect that the primary hope is that the lights go out in Europe. Irie probably doesn't care who turns them off.

Stinky bait

[irie]

Preventable of course if Ukraine had been a member of NATO.

https://www.politico.eu/article/zelensk ... -nato-bid/

He is being a little economical with the truth there. While it is true that both Ukraine and Georgia were told they would eventually become NATO members, President Yanukovych scrapped those plans when he came to power in 2010, and it wasn't until 2014 that NATO membership was back on the agenda for Ukraine. The country has had 8 years to prepare for membership but still doesn't meet all of the requirements. Georgia, on the other hand, did meet the requirements, and 3/4months later found Russian tanks rolling across its borders (as Merkel had indirectly predicted).
While I agree that the probability of Russia invading a NATO-member Ukraine would have decreased, Zelensky needs to look a bit closer to home if he wants to do a bit of finger pointing.

Anything from Politico comes with a hefty pinch of salt anyway. It's owned by Axel Springer SE who will not employ anyone who specifically doesn't support 'transcontinental relations', EU integration and Israel. It is generally thought that Axel Springer himself started his publishing empire with a $7M sub from the CIA. His Wikipedia entry makes interested reading.

Politico is not exactly a bastion of liberal minded free thinkers.

Please name "a bastion of liberal minded free thinkers"?

Don't think I'll hold my breath.

[Count Steer]

He is being a little economical with the truth there. While it is true that both Ukraine and Georgia were told they would eventually become NATO members, President Yanukovych scrapped those plans when he came to power in 2010, and it wasn't until 2014 that NATO membership was back on the agenda for Ukraine. The country has had 8 years to prepare for membership but still doesn't meet all of the requirements. Georgia, on the other hand, did meet the requirements, and 3/4months later found Russian tanks rolling across its borders (as Merkel had indirectly predicted).
While I agree that the probability of Russia invading a NATO-member Ukraine would have decreased, Zelensky needs to look a bit closer to home if he wants to do a bit of finger pointing.

Anything from Politico comes with a hefty pinch of salt anyway. It's owned by Axel Springer SE who will not employ anyone who specifically doesn't support 'transcontinental relations', EU integration and Israel. It is generally thought that Axel Springer himself started his publishing empire with a $7M sub from the CIA. His Wikipedia entry makes interested reading.

Politico is not exactly a bastion of liberal minded free thinkers.

Please name "a bastion of liberal minded free thinkers"?

Don't think I'll hold my breath.

Me.

[irie]

It seems obvious that Russia will only negotiate a peace deal from a position of strength, and since by all accounts Russia is losing this war, there will be no negotiations. Now looks like the 'end game' is to capitalise on Russia's weakness and force Russia out of all Ukrainian territory.

No one is talking specifics but there's a sense military support to Ukraine is being significantly ramped up - and Bucha was a turning point.

A UK official told me nothing is off the table now among NATO allies - even tanks and potentially aircraft may be supplied to Ukraine. The scenes from Bucha is said to have focused the minds of many countries attending these talks in Brussels.

Ukraine's foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, has warned we will see more Buchas.

"We already see that Mariupol is much, much worse on all accounts" - referring to the southern city where more than 100,000 civilians have been cut off for weeks and are living under daily bombardment.

Mr Kuleba wouldn't be drawn on the specifics of what weapons are now on offer but said he is "cautiously optimistic" about the outcome of these talks.

The question now though is how long it will take for these weapons to get to where they're needed.

"Two weeks ago it was enough to say what will be given. Today it is more important to say when," said Mr Kuleba

This is the window of opportunity to get Ukraine what it needs.

NATO assessments indicate Russia is regrouping and rearming for a major attack on the eastern region of Donbas.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg conceded that is why allies have acted with such urgency at these talks.

Ukraine's foreign minister put it much more starkly: "The battle for Donbas - and I regret saying this - will remind you of the Second World War… Russia has its plan and we have ours. And the outcome will be decided on the battlefield."

Mr Kuleba told NATO members that Ukraine is not just fighting for its own security, it's also fighting to protect the security of NATO members.

He said Ukraine will do the fighting, if "you provide everything we need".

Without giving away any details, it seems that was the deal that was struck today.

So Russian manpower vs Western weapons technology ...