inewham wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 3:23 pm
It makes perfect sense to cut of fuel to troops attacking from the east. What is incredible is that the Russians didn't anticipate it and have some sort of anti aircraft defences
Hats off to the pilots of those helicopters
The Russians appear to have made a complete horlicks of the entire invasion. They got the politics wrong, their lightning thrust to take Kiev stalled, and they keep getting handed a bloody nose by an opponent that, on paper, should have been a pushover. They are good at shelling civilians though.
Not only shelling civilians but raping women and girls, executing civilians, killing children, burying bodies in mass graves, I'm sure everyone has seen the shocking images.
Preventable of course if Ukraine had been a member of NATO.
Zelenskyy calls out Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy for blocking Ukraine’s NATO bid
‘I invite Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy to visit Bucha, to see what the policy of 14 years of concessions to Russia has led to,’ Ukrainian president says.
Merkel's predictable "non est factum":
a spokesperson for Merkel said: “Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel stands by her decisions in connection with the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest. In view of the atrocities becoming visible in Bucha and other places in Ukraine, all efforts by the German government and the international community to stand by Ukraine and put an end to Russia’s barbarism and war against Ukraine have the full support of the former German chancellor.”
Last edited by irie on Mon Apr 04, 2022 7:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Telegraph wrote: EU payments for Russian gas and oil are funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
In Germany’s case, it is estimated to be sending somewhere in the region of €800m (£607m) a day to Moscow, a figure that makes a total mockery of Western attempts to end the war with sanctions.
Until those payments stop, Russia can bombard Ukraine with abandon.
Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.
A very nasty equation.
Correction.
Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Telegraph wrote: EU payments for Russian gas and oil are funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.
In Germany’s case, it is estimated to be sending somewhere in the region of €800m (£607m) a day to Moscow, a figure that makes a total mockery of Western attempts to end the war with sanctions.
Until those payments stop, Russia can bombard Ukraine with abandon.
Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.
A very nasty equation.
Correction.
Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.
Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?
irie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 6:50 pm
Preventable of course if Ukraine has been a member of NATO.
I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.
If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
irie wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 6:50 pm
Preventable of course if Ukraine has been a member of NATO.
I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.
If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?
There are 2 probabilities. One during the process of applying and one after. It may have brought the invasion forward. The response also would have depended (probably) on who was in charge in the USA at the time. But that's as all much what-iffery as anyone else's guesses about what might have happened if....
Doubt is not a pleasant condition.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Voltaire
wheelnut wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:13 am
I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.
If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?
There are 2 probabilities. One during the process of applying and one after. It may have brought the invasion forward. The response also would have depended (probably) on who was in charge in the USA at the time. But that's as all much what-iffery as anyone else's guesses about what might have happened if....
In your estimation, what are those two probabilities?
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
There are a few ways things can go now, which will be a far more interesting discussion than historical 'what ifs'. For example, Putin clearly cannot be trusted as a world leader in the future which puts Russia's standing on the world stage in a bit of a hole. If he wants a strong, important Russia he's going to have to do some serious back-pedaling but even if he does, he still can't be trusted over anything.
Is he in control? He doesn't appear to be in control of the army that invaded Ukraine unless of course we has ordered the attacks on civilians. Those attacks, easily labelled war crimes, carry the stench of poor leadership, indiscipline, low morale and incompetence. Putin can't really talk his way out of any of that.
He quite possibly doesn't actually know what is going on as he isn't in control of his generals. Their fear of him (probably for their own lives or the lives of their families) results in them just telling him what they think he wants to hear. That's not leadership.
I can't see any way out for him tbh and I don't know enough about him (does anybody?) to suggest what he'll do to start getting out of his hole. He's not going to leave much of a legacy though, whatever he does. Russia under Putin is just a big dead elephant in the room. It's going to take a bit of sorting.
irie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:43 pm
Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.
A very nasty equation.
Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.
Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?
Well, either you're on his ignore list with me and others, or it's on his 'too hard to answer' pile.
It's easy to look back and use this to knock the EU, but it doesn't take much effort to think of how other similar situations could develop. For example, much of the western world is reliant on China for all sorts of stuff. If they stroll across the border into South Korea, could we instantly apply 'no imports' sanctions? Unlikely.
irie wrote: ↑Wed Mar 30, 2022 7:43 pm
Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.
A very nasty equation.
Correction.
Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.
Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?
Buy no energy from Russia, which would mean rationing energy and closing down non-essential industries. At €6bn per week Russia would soon run out of money to support the invasion of Ukraine.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.
If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?
There are 2 probabilities. One during the process of applying and one after. It may have brought the invasion forward. The response also would have depended (probably) on who was in charge in the USA at the time. But that's as all much what-iffery as anyone else's guesses about what might have happened if....
I'm not sure he understands that the invasion was in part to prevent Ukraine becoming part of NATO...
Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.
Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?
Buy no energy from Russia, which would mean rationing energy and closing down non-essential industries. At €6bn per week Russia would soon run out of money to support the invasion of Ukraine.
SO where are they going to get it ? Assuming they don't have enough to power the country.
Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?
Buy no energy from Russia, which would mean rationing energy and closing down non-essential industries. At €6bn per week Russia would soon run out of money to support the invasion of Ukraine.
SO where are they going to get it ? Assuming they don't have enough to power the country.
I suspect as it's the EU they deserve to live in the dark and freeze or something
weeksy wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:04 am
Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?
Buy no energy from Russia, which would mean rationing energy and closing down non-essential industries. At €6bn per week Russia would soon run out of money to support the invasion of Ukraine.
SO where are they going to get it ? Assuming they don't have enough to power the country.
By doing this, and by all* Western nations participating to help share energy to help bring this war to an end as soon as possible.
As it now stands, Ukraine is being supplied with increasing arms and munitions to in order to try to counter Russian forces financed by the ~€6bn per week paid by European countries. An obscene equation with the huge costs clearly visible in emerging images.
*edit: but not all will of course.
Last edited by irie on Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Buy no energy from Russia, which would mean rationing energy and closing down non-essential industries. At €6bn per week Russia would soon run out of money to support the invasion of Ukraine.
SO where are they going to get it ? Assuming they don't have enough to power the country.
By doing this, and by all Western nations participating to help share energy to help bring this war to as speedy end as possible.
As it now stands, Ukraine is being supplied with increasing arms and munitions to in order to try to counter Russian forces financed by the ~€6bn per week paid by European countries. An obscene equation with the huge costs clearly visible in emerging images.
You'd assume they've thought of this..... ?
But clearly haven't implemented it....
Why would that be ? because it's not actually possible ?
I imagine cos voters are a lot less bothered about the government sending Ukraine a few hundred mills worth of weapons Vs having no gas and electricity and their economy chucked to the dogs for....who knows how long.
Wasn't one of the reasons WWII kicked off the fact that the German economy was in ruins due to reparations etc? They didn't appear to need €6bn/week. Expansionism can be, potentially, financially rewarding. Armies need paying when they're sat at home, most of the equipment Russia is using was already 'in stock'. The main benefit of the income is keeping the population happy and they seem to be doing that through the media.
They aren't going to say 'Whoops we're skint, let's go home'.
Europe needs to replenish gas reserves etc in expectation that this won't be done and dusted by next winter. Sanctions may well continue for some time and it will take time to get supplies (and build the infrastructure to take them) from elsewhere and in other forms eg LPG.
I'm more surprised that Russia hasn't turned the gas off.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Voltaire
