Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Screwdriver]

There's now talk of Putin going after Japan...

There’s been talk that’s all.

That’s all I’m sayin. Talk in the village!

https://japantoday.com/category/nationa ... -off-japan

[irie]

“Personal insults [from Joe Biden] cannot but leave their negative mark on relations between heads of state.

Nevertheless, dialogue between Russia and the United States is necessary in any case, not only in the interests of our the two countries but also in the interests of the whole world.

One way or another, sooner or later, [Russia and the US] will have to talk about issues of strategic stability, security, and other issues that only we can discuss.

Ah yes, Dmitry, so you mean that Ukraine forces armed with increasing supplies of Western weapons are now slowly pushing Russian forces back?

A trend that will only increase with the recently announced huge increase in the quantity and sophistication of weapons supplied by the USA and the Western alliance to Ukrainian forces? Such as Switchblades?

Yep, gotcha Dmitry.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade

[irie]

EU payments for Russian gas and oil are funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

In Germany’s case, it is estimated to be sending somewhere in the region of €800m (£607m) a day to Moscow, a figure that makes a total mockery of Western attempts to end the war with sanctions.

Until those payments stop, Russia can bombard Ukraine with abandon.

Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.

A very nasty equation.

[Mussels]

Kremlin: Reports of Ukrainian strikes on Russian depot won't help talks

Oh dear, how dare Ukraine bomb something on their soil.

[Mr. Dazzle]

President Vladimir Putin's spokesman also blamed Ukraine for the fire and said the incident "cannot be perceived as creating comfortable conditions for continuing the talks" with Kyiv. So far those peace talks have made little progress.

#youstarteditmate

[Supermofo]

The Russian reaction is pretty peculiar considering they've been turning Ukraine into a pile of rubble for a month. Their incredulity is actually funny.

[Cousin Jack]

It makes perfect sense to cut of fuel to troops attacking from the east. What is incredible is that the Russians didn't anticipate it and have some sort of anti aircraft defences
Hats off to the pilots of those helicopters

The Russians appear to have made a complete horlicks of the entire invasion. They got the politics wrong, their lightning thrust to take Kiev stalled, and they keep getting handed a bloody nose by an opponent that, on paper, should have been a pushover. They are good at shelling civilians though.

[irie]

It makes perfect sense to cut of fuel to troops attacking from the east. What is incredible is that the Russians didn't anticipate it and have some sort of anti aircraft defences
Hats off to the pilots of those helicopters

The Russians appear to have made a complete horlicks of the entire invasion. They got the politics wrong, their lightning thrust to take Kiev stalled, and they keep getting handed a bloody nose by an opponent that, on paper, should have been a pushover. They are good at shelling civilians though.

Not only shelling civilians but raping women and girls, executing civilians, killing children, burying bodies in mass graves, I'm sure everyone has seen the shocking images.

Preventable of course if Ukraine had been a member of NATO.

https://www.politico.eu/article/zelensk ... -nato-bid/

Zelenskyy calls out Angela Merkel, Nicolas Sarkozy for blocking Ukraine’s NATO bid

‘I invite Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy to visit Bucha, to see what the policy of 14 years of concessions to Russia has led to,’ Ukrainian president says.

Merkel's predictable "non est factum":

a spokesperson for Merkel said: “Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel stands by her decisions in connection with the 2008 NATO summit in Bucharest. In view of the atrocities becoming visible in Bucha and other places in Ukraine, all efforts by the German government and the international community to stand by Ukraine and put an end to Russia’s barbarism and war against Ukraine have the full support of the former German chancellor.”

[Mussels]

It's not always a good idea to admit countries to NATO, Hungary is looking a bit iffy.

[irie]

It's not always a good idea to admit countries to NATO, Hungary is looking a bit iffy.

But if Hungary had been admitted would it have still been the country that it is now? At a guess probably not.

[irie]

EU payments for Russian gas and oil are funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

In Germany’s case, it is estimated to be sending somewhere in the region of €800m (£607m) a day to Moscow, a figure that makes a total mockery of Western attempts to end the war with sanctions.

Until those payments stop, Russia can bombard Ukraine with abandon.

Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.

A very nasty equation.

Correction.

Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.

[weeksy]

EU payments for Russian gas and oil are funding the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.

In Germany’s case, it is estimated to be sending somewhere in the region of €800m (£607m) a day to Moscow, a figure that makes a total mockery of Western attempts to end the war with sanctions.

Until those payments stop, Russia can bombard Ukraine with abandon.

Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.

A very nasty equation.

Correction.

Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.

Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?

[wheelnut]

Preventable of course if Ukraine has been a member of NATO.

I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.

[irie]

Preventable of course if Ukraine has been a member of NATO.

I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.

If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?

[Count Steer]

Preventable of course if Ukraine has been a member of NATO.

I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.

If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?

There are 2 probabilities. One during the process of applying and one after. It may have brought the invasion forward. The response also would have depended (probably) on who was in charge in the USA at the time. But that's as all much what-iffery as anyone else's guesses about what might have happened if....

[irie]

I love the way you make these pronouncements with such certainty.

If Ukraine had been a member of NATO, in your estimation what would have been the probability that Russia would have invaded Ukraine as it has just done so?

There are 2 probabilities. One during the process of applying and one after. It may have brought the invasion forward. The response also would have depended (probably) on who was in charge in the USA at the time. But that's as all much what-iffery as anyone else's guesses about what might have happened if....

In your estimation, what are those two probabilities?

[Yambo]

I love a bit of hypothetical supposition.

There are a few ways things can go now, which will be a far more interesting discussion than historical 'what ifs'. For example, Putin clearly cannot be trusted as a world leader in the future which puts Russia's standing on the world stage in a bit of a hole. If he wants a strong, important Russia he's going to have to do some serious back-pedaling but even if he does, he still can't be trusted over anything.

Is he in control? He doesn't appear to be in control of the army that invaded Ukraine unless of course we has ordered the attacks on civilians. Those attacks, easily labelled war crimes, carry the stench of poor leadership, indiscipline, low morale and incompetence. Putin can't really talk his way out of any of that.

He quite possibly doesn't actually know what is going on as he isn't in control of his generals. Their fear of him (probably for their own lives or the lives of their families) results in them just telling him what they think he wants to hear. That's not leadership.

I can't see any way out for him tbh and I don't know enough about him (does anybody?) to suggest what he'll do to start getting out of his hole. He's not going to leave much of a legacy though, whatever he does. Russia under Putin is just a big dead elephant in the room. It's going to take a bit of sorting.

[irie]

Images of the death and destruction wreaked on Ukraine will probably* be Putin's legacy.

* word inserted for @wheelnut.

[Horse]

Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.
A very nasty equation.

Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.

Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?

Well, either you're on his ignore list with me and others, or it's on his 'too hard to answer' pile.

It's easy to look back and use this to knock the EU, but it doesn't take much effort to think of how other similar situations could develop. For example, much of the western world is reliant on China for all sorts of stuff. If they stroll across the border into South Korea, could we instantly apply 'no imports' sanctions? Unlikely.

[irie]

Heating German households is paid for in Ukrainian deaths.

A very nasty equation.

Correction.

Have seen that the EU (not Germany alone) is currently spending ~€850m per day (€6bn per week) on Russian gas and oil.

Who else could and would supply them at short notice though ? I'm assuming the countries have little in the way of options at the moment ? What should they do instead ?

Buy no energy from Russia, which would mean rationing energy and closing down non-essential industries. At €6bn per week Russia would soon run out of money to support the invasion of Ukraine.