Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Cousin Jack]

There’s one or more of these patrolling the skies above Europe right now. Fully armed no doubt, carrying nukes.

Pah, call that high alert?

IIRC back in the good old Cold War days there were reputed to be always a number of these heading across the polar icecap bound for Russia, with 2 lines across their track.

The first line they would not cross without authorization. As I understand it that line was crossed several times, because of a mistaken belief that something nasty was incoming.
The second line was the "No recall" line, beyond that they would bomb regardless of any message to turn back. Fortunately that line was never reached.

[Screwdriver]

Pah, call that high alert?

Anything nuke and its a very low bar.

In the meantime, I wonder what's going on with the nuclear plants around Chernobyl? Atomic energy authority doesn't seem to know, clearly Putin doesn't care. While it's not so good for any troops to get sent out there, I hear reports that just disturbing the ground is bad enough to register on Geiger counters around Europe.

What happens if one of those ancient Soviet reactors goes pop? By all accounts we were quite lucky last time because the molten core didn't burst into the underground water tank. Might not be so fortunate this time.

[Yambo]

He was unusually cogent...

Maybe he's been topped up with some fresh blood plasma.

Maybe big pharma are testing a miracle cure on him . . .

[irie]

Oh. Another conspiracy theory?

The EU is currently paying Russia ~$660m per day for gas.

Fact.

No conspiracy.

Another fact: the EU currently buys over 2m barrel oil per day from Russia.

Wars cost money. Figure it out for yourself.

Indeed, though perhaps you might wish to stand in front of a mirror and figure it out yourself.

Ooh, another conspiracy theory.

Don't be silly, any fule can see that Putin is spending the $billions from Russian energy sales to support the Russian poor and needy. And if you ask him nicely he'll undoubtedly settle your outstanding energy bills for you.

[Hoonercat]

The election of this weak barely intelligible and frequently confused POTUS was one factor which must have encouraged Putin to embark on his war in Ukraine ...

... propped up in part on a day-to-day basis by EU money paid to Russia for energy supplies.

Oh. Another conspiracy theory?

The EU is currently paying Russia ~$660m per day for gas.

Fact.

No conspiracy.

Another fact: the EU currently buys over 2m barrel oil per day from Russia.

Wars cost money. Figure it out for yourself.

European energy companies are currently paying Russian energy companies $660m per day for gas. That's a far better use of the word 'fact'.
You seem too have completely ignored the fact (as in, real fact) that Russian gas supplies to the EU area plunged during January and February. so even with the uptick in March, it's still way below seasonal levels averaged over the 3 months. Had you bothered to check it against December '21 levels you would have seen that for yourself (you probably know this, but it doesn't fit your narrative). The Russian state earns approx $200 million per day from that. Can't be arsed to search, but I seem to recall you claiming that the war was costing Russia over $20 billion per day?
Maybe you need to redirect your pointy stick?

[Count Steer]

I'd be restocking my gas reserves before the Ukrainian pipeline gets blown up and/or Russia cuts off supplies.

6 days ago Russia (gas companies) was still paying the transit charges to Ukraine for gas in hard currency. Now that's

[Screwdriver]

As if this wasn’t always about oil and gas.

[irie]

Astonishing headline from EU-centric media.

https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-m ... -stream-2/

Putin’s useful German idiots

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a repudiation of a whole generation of German politicians from across the spectrum.
...
Germany’s stubborn insistence on engaging with the Russian leader in the face of his sustained aggression (a catalog of misdeeds ranging from the invasion of Georgia to assassinations of enemies abroad and war crimes in Syria) was nothing short of a catastrophic blunder, one that will earn Merkel a place in the pantheon of political naiveté alongside Neville Chamberlain.

Quite.

[Mussels]

As if this wasn’t always about oil and gas.

Rich man who wants European style democracy bankrolls presidential candidate. I'm finding it hard to get frothy about that.

[Mussels]

Zelenski isn't happy with the French living up to their reputation.

He strongly criticises France's President Emmanuel Macron for failing to provide military support. Why? "Because they are afraid of Russia. And that’s it. And those who say it first are the first to be afraid."

[Screwdriver]

Rich man who wants European style democracy bankrolls presidential candidate. I'm finding it hard to get frothy about that.

I'm not frothy, I think it's hilarious. Russian oligarch sponsors comic actor in a role about said actor becoming president. Then in a bizarre twist, goes ahead and makes it happen.

But that was not the motivation behind my "comment". I was merely agreeing this conflict was always about the oil/gas. One of Putins' oligarchs has escaped, he wants it back.

Nothing is as black and white as it is painted, it's all a bit shady. So you pick a side and wave the flag for that and I'm on the side of whichever one gets me cheaper fuel and stops cunts like Putin taking things to the extreme.

None of us expect the business world or even politics to be squeaky clean and there's always going to be a bit of corruption wherever humans are involved. Recent events however have amplified that situation to an extreme degree and it is pretty obvious to me where that road is taking us.

George Orwell even wrote a book about it.

[slowsider]

. Recent events however have amplified that situation to an extreme degree and it is pretty obvious to me where that road is taking us.

George Orwell even wrote a book about it.

Wigan Pier ?

[MingtheMerciless]

There’s one or more of these patrolling the skies above Europe right now. Fully armed no doubt, carrying nukes.

Pah, call that high alert?

IIRC back in the good old Cold War days there were reputed to be always a number of these heading across the polar icecap bound for Russia, with 2 lines across their track.

The first line they would not cross without authorization. As I understand it that line was crossed several times, because of a mistaken belief that something nasty was incoming.
The second line was the "No recall" line, beyond that they would bomb regardless of any message to turn back. Fortunately that line was never reached.

Curtis Le May of Bomber Command had his bombers regularly fly past “the point of no return” to try and provoke a Russian response in the early days of the Cold War as the belief amongst the hawks was that the USAF would stop most of the Soviet bombers getting to the USA and a few US cities and most of Europe was an acceptable loss for the destruction of the USSR.

[Hoonercat]

Rich man who wants European style democracy bankrolls presidential candidate. I'm finding it hard to get frothy about that.

I'm not frothy, I think it's hilarious. Russian oligarch sponsors comic actor in a role about said actor becoming president. Then in a bizarre twist, goes ahead and makes it happen.

He's not Russian, he's Ukraine. Not sure how old that video is, but it doesn't mention that in 2019 the a Ukraine court found nationalisation of PrivatBank was illegal. There was also a lawsuit by the bank in London, and the court found that "PrivatBank fabricated the case in an attempt to bring a claim in London".
That being said, he does seem to have had a life tainted by accusations of fraudulent behaviour.

[Screwdriver]

He's not Russian, he's Ukraine. Not sure how old that video is, but it doesn't mention that in 2019 the a Ukraine court found nationalisation of PrivatBank was illegal. There was also a lawsuit by the bank in London, and the court found that "PrivatBank fabricated the case in an attempt to bring a claim in London".
That being said, he does seem to have had a life tainted by accusations of fraudulent behaviour.

That's a rather circular argument. He was born in the USSR (one assumes in The Ukraine) and by some nefarious and circuitous means, that became an independent, sovereign country, largely due to the corrupt activities of the then Russian oligarchs who controlled the area.

But yeah, thick as thieves the lot of them and now, thanks to us, incredibly well armed criminals.

[Horse]

... and by some nefarious and circuitous means, that became an independent, sovereign country,

Thank you for encouraging me to read up on this

And it's interesting to cherry pick a few bits!

A chaotic period of warfare ensued after the Russian Revolutions of 1917. The partially-recognised Ukrainian People's Republic emerged from its own civil war of 1917–1921. The Soviet–Ukrainian War (1917–1921) followed, in which the Bolshevik Red Army established control in late 1919.[11] The Ukrainian Bolsheviks, who had defeated the national government in Kyiv, established the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, which on 30 December 1922 became one of the founding republics of the Soviet Union. Initial Soviet policy on Ukrainian language and Ukrainian culture made Ukrainian the official language of administration and schools. Policy in the 1930s turned to Russification. In 1932 and 1933, millions of people, mostly peasants, in Ukraine starved to death in a devastating famine, known as Holodomor. It is estimated by Encyclopædia Britannica that 6 to 8 million people died from hunger in the Soviet Union during this period, of whom 4 to 5 million were Ukrainians.[12] Nikita Khrushchev was appointed the head of the Ukrainian Communist Party in 1938.

After Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union invaded Poland in September 1939, the Ukrainian SSR's territory expanded westward. Axis armies occupied Ukraine from 1941 to 1944. During World War II the Ukrainian Insurgent Army fought for Ukrainian independence against both Germany and the Soviet Union. In 1945 the Ukrainian SSR became one of the founding members of the United Nations.[13] After the death of Stalin in 1953, the Ukrainian Khrushchev as head of the Communist Party of Soviet Union enabled a Ukrainian revival, and in 1954 the republic expanded to the south with the transfer of Crimea from Russia. Nevertheless, political repressions against poets, historians and other intellectuals continued, as in all other parts of the USSR.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine became an independent state, formalised with a referendum in December 1991.

An overwhelming majority of 92.3% of voters approved the declaration of independence made by the Verkhovna Rada on 24 August 1991.

[Screwdriver]

If you like that bit of history, have a look at those disputed Japanese islands (Kuril). There's now talk of Putin going after Japan...

Japan is famously non-nuclear. Suddenly, they look weak and I wouldn't put it past Putin to throw a nuke at them.

[irie]

If you like that bit of history, have a look at those disputed Japanese islands (Kuril). There's now talk of Putin going after Japan...

Japan is famously non-nuclear. Suddenly, they look weak and I wouldn't put it past Putin to throw a nuke at them.

From a botched attempt at a conspiracy theory to half-baked speculation, you never disappoint Screwdriver.

[Count Steer]

As mentioned before, Japan is (publically) considering breaking the triple lock (build no nukes, own no nukes, allow no foreign ones to be sited in Japan). There's discussion on letting the USA site them there.

If that happens, I don't think it's Russia to get worried about. The Chinese will not be happy - at all. Not even a little bit.

[JackyJoll]

There's now talk of Putin going after Japan...

There’s been talk that’s all.

That’s all I’m sayin. Talk in the village!