Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Count Steer]

There was a an exiled Russian dissident talking today and he says he's getting info fed to him by someone in the FSB. This was used as evidence that unease is growing with Putin inside the FSB.

Of course this might be a) disinformation and the West want it thought that the FSB is getting twitchy b) he's being fed iffy info - which should be testable or c) it's all true (which could, hopefully put some constraints on some berserker action by that putain Putin.

PS That vid/presentation is one of the best analyses I've seen or read Screwd.

[Mussels]

Is this an admission of failure?

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

[Screwdriver]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

[JackyJoll]

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Is there still a Light Brigade?

Send the Light Brigade and some Nightingale hospitals.

[Screwdriver]

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Is there still a Light Brigade?

Send the Light Brigade and some Nightingale hospitals.

Mary Seacole you racist, terrorist, homophobic, transgenderist err, Trump supporter.

[Yambo]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

I think forcing the Russian forces out of the Eastern areas is going to be too difficult. Personally I think Ukraine should say you can have Donbas, keeping it as part of Ukraine is just going to be a nasty sore for a few decades.

In the North I'd like to see them giving the Russians a really bloody nose before they presumably pull back and continue hitting them during that withdrawal.

The problem area as I see it is the south, around Crimea. Are the Russians going to withdraw from there? Will Ukraine have decent access to the Black Sea?

But Russia, while they haven't lost, are a long way from having won. They must be concerned about the original aims and their ability to carry out the demands of Putin. They've put up an abysmal show and NATO should feel a lot more comfortable about the defence of the Eastern borders. Russia would almost certainly have to use battlefield nukes in any future conflict against NATO to make any ground. That would be very foolish. All NATO's training has been defensive including NBC warfare. We've been ready for that for a long time and if Russia can't back it up with their regular forces that can't get more than a few kilometres into Ukraine then they're going to get whipped.

I'm just a long time retired logistician though and the Russian logistical problems have been entertaining.

[Screwdriver]

It has been a catastrophe for both sides. Catastrophic for Ukraine for all the obvious reasons and potentially even worse for Russia for having been so arrogant as to assume they could just walk in and take Ukraine.

To be honest though, I really thought it was going to be over almost as soon as they started. So glad I was so wrong.

The poor condition of so many of those critical vehicles is extraordinary though. I guess that’s what you get with a corrupt regime where it’s not just the oligarchs thieving and stealing whatever they can get away with. The entire supply chain for the military appear to be at it too and nobody would dare complain…

[Mussels]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

I think forcing the Russian forces out of the Eastern areas is going to be too difficult. Personally I think Ukraine should say you can have Donbas, keeping it as part of Ukraine is just going to be a nasty sore for a few decades.

In the North I'd like to see them giving the Russians a really bloody nose before they presumably pull back and continue hitting them during that withdrawal.

The problem area as I see it is the south, around Crimea. Are the Russians going to withdraw from there? Will Ukraine have decent access to the Black Sea?

But Russia, while they haven't lost, are a long way from having won. They must be concerned about the original aims and their ability to carry out the demands of Putin. They've put up an abysmal show and NATO should feel a lot more comfortable about the defence of the Eastern borders. Russia would almost certainly have to use battlefield nukes in any future conflict against NATO to make any ground. That would be very foolish. All NATO's training has been defensive including NBC warfare. We've been ready for that for a long time and if Russia can't back it up with their regular forces that can't get more than a few kilometres into Ukraine then they're going to get whipped.

I'm just a long time retired logistician though and the Russian logistical problems have been entertaining.

Ukraine may not have to drive Russia from those regions, waiting a while could be enough.

Former Russian MP Ilya Ponomarev, a long standing Putin critic, tells the BBC's Hardtalk programme that the Russian president has started "an imperialist war" in Ukraine that could rip Russia apart.

[Count Steer]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

I think forcing the Russian forces out of the Eastern areas is going to be too difficult. Personally I think Ukraine should say you can have Donbas, keeping it as part of Ukraine is just going to be a nasty sore for a few decades.

If they do that and Russia get that area with no constraints won't they crank up the military and materiel ready for next bite? It's no coincidence that the push out of Crimea has been more of a success than from elsewhere having had time to do just that. It really would be 'enemy at the gate'.

In an ideal world I'd like to see an outcome that turns the Belarus government into lamppost ornaments but that's just wishful thinking.

[Yambo]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

I think forcing the Russian forces out of the Eastern areas is going to be too difficult. Personally I think Ukraine should say you can have Donbas, keeping it as part of Ukraine is just going to be a nasty sore for a few decades.

If they do that and Russia get that area with no constraints won't they crank up the military and materiel ready for next bite? It's no coincidence that the push out of Crimea has been more of a success than from elsewhere having had time to do just that. It really would be 'enemy at the gate'.

In an ideal world I'd like to see an outcome that turns the Belarus government into lamppost ornaments but that's just wishful thinking.

The way I understand it, Donbas is full of Russians, Russian speakers and separatists. They've been causing bother for years, had weapons supplied by Russia and were Putin's reason for 'liberating' parts of Ukraine. The Russian/Ukraine border is already 2300 kms long and Russia can position troops and resources anywhere along it wherever and whenever they want. There has been Russian military equipment in Donbas for years.

Just give them the territory and build a wall.

[Count Steer]

I think forcing the Russian forces out of the Eastern areas is going to be too difficult. Personally I think Ukraine should say you can have Donbas, keeping it as part of Ukraine is just going to be a nasty sore for a few decades.

If they do that and Russia get that area with no constraints won't they crank up the military and materiel ready for next bite? It's no coincidence that the push out of Crimea has been more of a success than from elsewhere having had time to do just that. It really would be 'enemy at the gate'.

In an ideal world I'd like to see an outcome that turns the Belarus government into lamppost ornaments but that's just wishful thinking.

The way I understand it, Donbas is full of Russians, Russian speakers and separatists. They've been causing bother for years, had weapons supplied by Russia and were Putin's reason for 'liberating' parts of Ukraine. The Russian/Ukraine border is already 2300 kms long and Russia can position troops and resources anywhere along it wherever and whenever they want. There has been Russian military equipment in Donbas for years.

Just give them the territory and build a wall.

Might be causing bother but they're by no measure the majority. If they want to be Russian it's next door----->

I suspect the end result will be as you suggest though - with resettlement of the displaced Ukrainians (and endless agitating to return).

PS I just checked out post 1 on this thread....

[irie]

It has been a catastrophe for both sides. Catastrophic for Ukraine for all the obvious reasons and potentially even worse for Russia for having been so arrogant as to assume they could just walk in and take Ukraine.

To be honest though, I really thought it was going to be over almost as soon as they started. So glad I was so wrong.

The poor condition of so many of those critical vehicles is extraordinary though. I guess that’s what you get with a corrupt regime where it’s not just the oligarchs thieving and stealing whatever they can get away with. The entire supply chain for the military appear to be at it too and nobody would dare complain…

Russia is a clientalist state.

[irie]

The way I understand it, Donbas is full of Russians, Russian speakers and separatists. They've been causing bother for years, had weapons supplied by Russia and were Putin's reason for 'liberating' parts of Ukraine. The Russian/Ukraine border is already 2300 kms long and Russia can position troops and resources anywhere along it wherever and whenever they want. There has been Russian military equipment in Donbas for years.

Just give them the territory and build a wall.

Agree with you.

Putin has tried to and failed (as said in the OP) "to annex Ukrainian land up to the Dnieper river thus linking up with the Crimean peninsula".

I believe the only way for Putin to now save face is to declare that the war against the Ukrainian nazis has been won and the future of Donbas has been secured, thus Russian troops can be withdrawn. A great victory will be celebrated and many medals awarded.

The Russian state propaganda machine will ensure that the 70% of the population which has no other news source than state media will accept and celebrate this 'victory'.

Russia will pay no war reparations, and its economy will be completely shattered as its German paymasters finally stop buying Russian oil and gas.

I believe that the 'West' will pour huge amounts of money into Ukraine to rebuild infrastructure, housing, schools etc., that Ukraine will join NATO as will Finland and Sweden, that Ukraine will join the EU and form a power base with other Eastern European member states.

We shall see.

[Screwdriver]

Interesting that part of Putins' surrender demands would have been for Ukraine to confirm Crimea as a legitimate part of Russia. Not sure what the "legal" status is currently but it would be amazing if that annexation could be overturned. Ukraine could go on the offensive...

[wheelnut]

The way I understand it, Donbas is full of Russians, Russian speakers and separatists. They've been causing bother for years, had weapons supplied by Russia and were Putin's reason for 'liberating' parts of Ukraine. The Russian/Ukraine border is already 2300 kms long and Russia can position troops and resources anywhere along it wherever and whenever they want. There has been Russian military equipment in Donbas for years.

Just give them the territory and build a wall.

It would certainly be a bitter pill for Ukraine to swallow but I think I it’s a pragmatic and realistic one.

However it could just be a means for Russia to regroup and resupply.

[MingtheMerciless]

10915C25-F587-4189-8DC0-624B177EE403.jpeg (83.1 KiB) Viewed 203 times

That's a B61 freefall nuclear bomb mounted in a F-35 weapons bay. So it's now on its way to being a nuclear capable bomber. A bit of nuclear willy waving by the West.

[Screwdriver]

B52 Stratofortress doing exercises around Finland too. A chilling sight to see that big bird up in the air.

[demographic]

When you do a search for some of these names in what is widely regarded as one the most corrupt countries in Europe, you discover a tangled web of intrigue. If it was a John Le Carre novel no one would be able to follow it, let alone believe it. Tales of politicians and "businessmen" being thrown in jail, released, getting back into government as if they're on a merry go round.

In amongst all that carnage, Hunter Biden's name keeps popping up, even VP Joe Biden, "The Big Guy" is seen pulling levers, pushing buttons defending financial interests centring around Burisma, a hot bed of corruption with vast financial resources being syphoned off.

This scandal has the potential to be as big a story as the current war.

And who do all these corrupt people bank with? Who hides all the money for them?

We hear all the time how currupt other countries like the DRC are but they're being aided by people in London/British overseas territories and so on.
Look on all the superyachts being detained and what flags are they flying? Isle Of Man, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands. Union flag in there somewhere on most of em. All those places named in the Paradise/Panama papers for asking very few questions of people with money.
But the UK's not currupt as fuck, no siree.

[slowsider]

B52 Stratofortress doing exercises around Finland too. A chilling sight to see that big bird up in the air.

Two weeks until its 70th birthday

[slowsider]

Russia appears to be invading Dubai now.

"Real estate agents in Dubai are reporting one of the biggest bull markets ever as Russian investors snap up apartments sight unseen, either buying them outright, or paying a year’s rent in advance. “It’s been unbelievable,” said Alan Pinto, a leasing consultant at Espace Real Estate in Dubai Marina."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -sanctions