Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[slowsider]

'Psychopathy is characterized by diagnostic features such as superficial charm, high intelligence, poor judgment and failure to learn from experience, pathological egocentricity and incapacity for love, lack of remorse or shame, impulsivity, grandiose sense of self-worth, pathological lying, manipulative behavior, poor ...'

[irie]

It's subtle, if you want to look for it but it's there.

As posted earlier, official Kremlin media seems to have (accidently?) posted Russian loses, or may have been hacked.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russian-troops-dead-ukraine/

Sure, I read that but again it's going to be hard to verify the numbers and to be fair, the media should say they can't verify any numbers. Most of us sheeple know and appreciate that despite being told we don't by the deep thinkers.

Zelensky keeps shouting "War crimes!' but I doubt Putin or any other Russian top brass will stand trial in the Hague. War is good for rhetoric.

I don't think anyone knows how many deaths there have been on either side, and even if an accurate number is somewhere published it's just another number in the morass of propaganda emitted by all sides. And I would also be astonished to see Putin or any other Russian stand trial for war crimes in the Hague.

The double 'games' on both sides are pretty obvious:

- Russia declares victories to satisfy internal politics where about 70% of the Russian population has never been exposed to anything other than state controlled media.

- Ukraine repeatedly declares war crimes, and that it's near defeat, to ensure the continued supply of money, hand held anti-tank weapons, manpads, drones and western intelligence etc.

[irie]

Stumbled onto this piece and I think it's interesting enough to share:

Very interesting video, thanks for posting it. And yes, I watched it all the way through.

[Screwdriver]

Its an interesting subject but way off topic.

Hmm. Let's see.

Vladimir Putin

Psychopath

Give me a minute and I'll see if I can find some common ground to drag this discussion back on topic.

[Hoonercat]

Even if the invasion is a spectacular failure, Putin's made sure his political rival and most outspoken critic won't be around to add fuel to the fire.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60832310

Already serving 3.5 years for breaking bail conditions due to being in hospital after an attempt on his life.

[Hoonercat]

'Oligarch says he ditched mansions before sanctions' shocker.

A Russian billionaire sanctioned by the UK says he no longer owns many former properties, potentially putting them beyond the reach of the law.
Ex-Arsenal shareholder Alisher Usmanov's £82m London home and Surrey mansion were put into trusts linked to the oligarch.
This raises questions over the effectiveness of sanctions imposed since the invasion of Ukraine began

[Screwdriver]

Is this true?

https://hungarytoday.hu/ihor-kotvytskyy ... der-money/

Former Ukrainian MP wife stopped at Hungary border carrying suitcases stuffed with millions...

[Mussels]

Is this true?

https://hungarytoday.hu/ihor-kotvytskyy ... der-money/

Former Ukrainian MP wife stopped at Hungary border carrying suitcases stuffed with millions...

It's perfectly possible though Fox news cite Belarusian media as their source, maybe other outlets are trying to check facts first. I tried to find out when he was an MP but he doesn't seem to exist online before this story so it might have been many years ago.

[Horse]

Is this true?

https://hungarytoday.hu/ihor-kotvytskyy ... der-money/

Former Ukrainian MP wife stopped at Hungary border carrying suitcases stuffed with millions...

It's perfectly possible though Fox news cite Belarusian media as their source, maybe other outlets are trying to check facts first. I tried to find out when he was an MP but he doesn't seem to exist online before this story so it might have been many years ago.

Is this the chap? 2015

https://www.unian.info/politics/1124421 ... orgot.html

20220323_075042.jpg (280.97 KiB) Viewed 389 times

[Hoonercat]

Is this true?

https://hungarytoday.hu/ihor-kotvytskyy ... der-money/

Former Ukrainian MP wife stopped at Hungary border carrying suitcases stuffed with millions...

It's perfectly possible though Fox news cite Belarusian media as their source, maybe other outlets are trying to check facts first. I tried to find out when he was an MP but he doesn't seem to exist online before this story so it might have been many years ago.

Is this the chap? 2015

https://www.unian.info/politics/1124421 ... orgot.html

20220323_075042.jpg

Businessman, former MP of a now defunct political party, and said to be the right-hand man of former Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who's career was full of corruption charges that he managed to weave his way out of until he ran out of political allies as the 'old guard' were replaced.

[Screwdriver]

When you do a search for some of these names in what is widely regarded as one the most corrupt countries in Europe, you discover a tangled web of intrigue. If it was a John Le Carre novel no one would be able to follow it, let alone believe it. Tales of politicians and "businessmen" being thrown in jail, released, getting back into government as if they're on a merry go round.

In amongst all that carnage, Hunter Biden's name keeps popping up, even VP Joe Biden, "The Big Guy" is seen pulling levers, pushing buttons defending financial interests centring around Burisma, a hot bed of corruption with vast financial resources being syphoned off.

This scandal has the potential to be as big a story as the current war.

[Mussels]

Stumbled onto this piece and I think it's interesting enough to share:

That's a good video and 3 weeks later still looks spot on.
Now the transport ship that Russian TV made a song and dance about has been sunk I wonder if we're supplying different missiles or if it was two men in a dinghy.

[Screwdriver]

That's a good video and 3 weeks later still looks spot on.
Now the transport ship that Russian TV made a song and dance about has been sunk I wonder if we're supplying different missiles or if it was two men in a dinghy.

It does take a different slant from most of the commentaries out there.

I heard somewhere that ship might have been hit by a ballistic missile.

I fear this slight pause is shortly to be broken by some devastating attack. Putin really now has nothing to lose and is sure to go "all-in" at some stage, even if or perhaps especially if Russian defeat looks inevitable. They have some fearsome conventional weapons but if they can't flush out the civilians (or kidnap them) they have a LOT of chemical capabilities and its right out of the Russian playbook.

Another "play" might be to accidentally drop a bomb just inside the NATO border...

Speaking of blowing things up inside NATO borders, is it just me or is anyone else thinking we should perhaps be a little more circumspect regarding the scale and content of our lethal aid being supplied to Ukraine? My first thought was, "ooh, I wonder how they're going to bring that in, and where".

[Count Steer]

There was a an exiled Russian dissident talking today and he says he's getting info fed to him by someone in the FSB. This was used as evidence that unease is growing with Putin inside the FSB.

Of course this might be a) disinformation and the West want it thought that the FSB is getting twitchy b) he's being fed iffy info - which should be testable or c) it's all true (which could, hopefully put some constraints on some berserker action by that putain Putin.

PS That vid/presentation is one of the best analyses I've seen or read Screwd.

[Mussels]

Is this an admission of failure?

The chief of the Russian army says Russia will now focus its main war effort on the "complete liberation" of the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

The defence ministry said Russia had been considering two options for its "special military operation" - one covering the whole of Ukraine and one focusing on the Donbas.

[Screwdriver]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

[JackyJoll]

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Is there still a Light Brigade?

Send the Light Brigade and some Nightingale hospitals.

[Screwdriver]

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Is there still a Light Brigade?

Send the Light Brigade and some Nightingale hospitals.

Mary Seacole you racist, terrorist, homophobic, transgenderist err, Trump supporter.

[Yambo]

Looks like it. Let’s hope the Ukrainians not only save Ukraine but also force out the entire invasion of the Eastern area.

If they receive sufficient resources, there is also the possibility of recovering Crimea.

Good job I am no strategist…

I think forcing the Russian forces out of the Eastern areas is going to be too difficult. Personally I think Ukraine should say you can have Donbas, keeping it as part of Ukraine is just going to be a nasty sore for a few decades.

In the North I'd like to see them giving the Russians a really bloody nose before they presumably pull back and continue hitting them during that withdrawal.

The problem area as I see it is the south, around Crimea. Are the Russians going to withdraw from there? Will Ukraine have decent access to the Black Sea?

But Russia, while they haven't lost, are a long way from having won. They must be concerned about the original aims and their ability to carry out the demands of Putin. They've put up an abysmal show and NATO should feel a lot more comfortable about the defence of the Eastern borders. Russia would almost certainly have to use battlefield nukes in any future conflict against NATO to make any ground. That would be very foolish. All NATO's training has been defensive including NBC warfare. We've been ready for that for a long time and if Russia can't back it up with their regular forces that can't get more than a few kilometres into Ukraine then they're going to get whipped.

I'm just a long time retired logistician though and the Russian logistical problems have been entertaining.

[Screwdriver]

It has been a catastrophe for both sides. Catastrophic for Ukraine for all the obvious reasons and potentially even worse for Russia for having been so arrogant as to assume they could just walk in and take Ukraine.

To be honest though, I really thought it was going to be over almost as soon as they started. So glad I was so wrong.

The poor condition of so many of those critical vehicles is extraordinary though. I guess that’s what you get with a corrupt regime where it’s not just the oligarchs thieving and stealing whatever they can get away with. The entire supply chain for the military appear to be at it too and nobody would dare complain…