Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[slowsider]

Everything changed, now they have gone too far.

US to impose consequences for journalist's death - official

Apart from there not being much left in the way of consequences I don't think anyone is sure which side shot him and he put himself into a danger zone deliberately. Why is he so important?

Can they send some Fox news mouthpieces over there next?

[Horse]

(Some Russian politicians/diplomats have already sent their families out of the country, lots of IT types and others trying to leave and what were £250 flights out now priced at £4000).

They might need to get on the hurry up.



Very few aircraft are actually owned by airlines, and instead most are owned by lessor companies, most of which are Irish. Under the sanctions regime, the view in the legal community is that those leases have to be terminated, otherwise Irish companies will be criminally liable.
...
What does this mean? Russia will be in effect cut off from international travel, perhaps with the notable exception of China. It will be more isolated than the USSR, and even domestic journeys will be severely limited.

Sanctions - if drafted well - do work.

12 March, 2022

International Sanctions Press Statement
International sanctions on the aviation sector have had a significant impact on the ability to sustain safety oversight on Russian operated aircraft on the Bermuda Aircraft Registry. The airworthiness system has been restricted to the point that the Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA) is unable to confidently approve these aircraft as being airworthy. Therefore, as of 23:59 UTC on March 12th 2022, the BCAA has provisionally suspended all Certificates of Airworthiness of those aircraft operating under the Article 83bis Agreement between Bermuda and the Russian Federation.

For any aircraft airborne at 23:59 UTC on March 12th 2022, the provisional suspension is effective immediately upon landing.

[Mussels]

According to the US now Russia has asked China for military support, I'm not sure I believe that and if it is true then it's not what most people would imagine.
In recent days China has banned all extreme postings of any opinion on Ukraine and it's media has a noticeable lack of any news about it, the pro-Russia articles have gone. China wants it to go away, not get bigger.
If Russia has asked for military help then they are pretty much admitting defeat.

[irie]

According to the US now Russia has asked China for military support, I'm not sure I believe that and if it is true then it's not what most people would imagine.
In recent days China has banned all extreme postings of any opinion on Ukraine and it's media has a noticeable lack of any news about it, the pro-Russia articles have gone. China wants it to go away, not get bigger.
If Russia has asked for military help then they are pretty much admitting defeat.

This.

China's choice appears to be either help Russia and suffer the consequences of economic sanctions, or keeping out of it. With the Russian economy in ruins there's no incentive to help Russia. Indeed, with a weak Russia they can name their price for the energy and raw materials they need.

[Mussels]

China has its own issues right now, money coming in is down and it needs to spend a lot more on energy and food. They might not like Russia failing but they care much more about keeping their population apathetic.

[slowsider]

China has its own issues right now, money coming in is down and it needs to spend a lot more on energy and food. They might not like Russia failing but they care much more about keeping their population apathetic.

You might be right, and they're not hopping up and down to get involved - America are trying to force them into publicly picking sides though.

Youd have to wonder if that is a good strategy, with China mulling over an invasion of Taiwan right now.

[JackyJoll]

Is China being shown what an attack on Taiwan would cost?

[JackyJoll]

Be careful what you wish for, what happens if the west cut Russia and China off with sanctions, then the sub-continent and Middle East sides with Russia/China.

They’d be Eastasia.

[Felix]

They’d be Eastasia.

I have all her albums

[Supermofo]

Be careful what you wish for, what happens if the west cut Russia and China off with sanctions, then the sub-continent and Middle East sides with Russia/China.

That'd see half the planet put in prison for voicing anything that doesn't toe the part line. And the other half put in prison for offending someone on twitter.

Have they opened a Moon colony I can fuck off to yet?

[Mussels]

Everything changed, now they have gone too far.

US to impose consequences for journalist's death - official

Apart from there not being much left in the way of consequences I don't think anyone is sure which side shot him and he put himself into a danger zone deliberately. Why is he so important?

Can they send some Fox news mouthpieces over there next?

Someone was listening.

Fox News journalist injured outside Kyiv

[Mussels]

Rather brave lady on Russian live news broadcast.

[Horse]

(Some Russian politicians/diplomats have already sent their families out of the country, lots of IT types and others trying to leave and what were £250 flights out now priced at £4000).

Very few aircraft are actually owned by airlines, and instead most are owned by lessor companies, most of which are Irish. Under the sanctions regime, the view in the legal community is that those leases have to be terminated, otherwise Irish companies will be criminally liable.
...
What does this mean? Russia will be in effect cut off from international travel, perhaps with the notable exception of China. It will be more isolated than the USSR, and even domestic journeys will be severely limited.

International sanctions on the aviation sector have had a significant impact on the ability to sustain safety oversight on Russian operated aircraft on the Bermuda Aircraft Registry. The airworthiness system has been restricted to the point that the Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA) is unable to confidently approve these aircraft as being airworthy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60741161

Russia has implemented a new law making it harder for foreign aircraft leasing companies to repossess their planes in the face of Western sanctions.

The new law will allow foreign jets to be registered in Russia "to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of activities in the field of civil aviation".

Russian airlines have 515 jets leased from abroad worth about $10bn (£7.7bn).

Foreign owners have until 28 March to get them back from Russian companies before sanctions kick in.

The move comes after Bermuda and Ireland, where nearly all foreign-leased planes operating in Russia are registered, said they were suspending certificates of airworthiness for those aircraft.

[Pirahna]

Rather brave lady on Russian live news broadcast.

Apparently an employee. The translation I've seen of the sign says:

"Stop the war"
"Don't believe the propaganda"
"They lie to you here"

[irie]

The inconvenient truth about the self serving German maxim of "wandel durch handel".

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine ... na-russia/

For years, European trade policy has been underpinned by a comforting but naïve German maxim: Wandel durch Handel.

The phrase means "change through trade" and expresses the belief that closer commercial ties with the West will push countries like Russia and China toward a freer and more open political system. The fuzzy logic runs that it's somehow harder for a nation with IKEA and Starbucks to run gulags or want to trigger World War III.

A horrible equation.

Germany is dead set against cutting EU oil and gas purchases from Russia, even though they bankroll the war.

[irie]

Rather brave lady on Russian live news broadcast.

Apparently an employee. The translation I've seen of the sign says:

"Stop the war"
"Don't believe the propaganda"
"They lie to you here"

The employee is Marina Ovsyannikova.

[slowsider]

The inconvenient truth about the self serving German maxim of "wandel durch handel".

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine ... na-russia/

For years, European trade policy has been underpinned by a comforting but naïve German maxim: Wandel durch Handel.

The phrase means "change through trade" and expresses the belief that closer commercial ties with the West will push countries like Russia and China toward a freer and more open political system. The fuzzy logic runs that it's somehow harder for a nation with IKEA and Starbucks to run gulags or want to trigger World War III.

A horrible equation.

Germany is dead set against cutting EU oil and gas purchases from Russia, even though they bankroll the war.

Clearly, a nation with Starbucks and IKEA manages to run the gulag of Guantanamo and instigate wars over oil.

Instead of berating the 'self serving Germans', what would your proposal be for pushing Russia and China towards a more open political system?

I'm not holding my breath awaiting any answer from you.

[Felix]

The employee is Marina Ovsyannikova.

Whew. I could not sleep last night without knowing

[Horse]

'Ex-employee'?

[ogri]

Probably RIP Marina Ovsyannikova.