Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Yorick]

Just found this about a wonderful British here Walter Raleigh

Between 1579 and 1583, Raleigh took part in the suppression of the Desmond Rebellions. He was present at the siege of Smerwick, where he led the party that beheaded some 600 Spanish and Italian soldiers.

[Docca]

[Screwdriver]

I kind of don't get where Putin goes now though.
As far as I can see(pretty sure other people will see other goals as well though) all the goals of his invasion haven't really worked out well.

Stated goals...
Protect Russian lives, that didnt last long did it?
Stop NATO expansion, Finland and Sweden now want to join Nato. Fail.
Unite more with Russia, that's not going at all well now is it?
Now a million or so refugees will have stronger ties with Europe.
After trump attacking NATO he was in a better position than he is now as he's managed to renunite more of NATO against Russia
Show Russian power? Showed their weakness more like.
Oligarchs have been sanctioned and more likely to lose huge amounts of money because of the invasion.

The worrying part of all this is how do the rest of the world give Putin something to help him save face?
He's going to just crush Ukraine now but a protracted conflict won't look good either.

Putin is clearly confident in his powerbase and is more strongly aligned with China and I suggest, the CCP model for totalitarian control. Russia is also a lot more self sufficient and it's no accident he is quite keen to acquire "the bread basket of Europe".

He is already threatening Finland which the USSR nearly nabbed only a lifetime ago. He is also a lot less bothered about "the rules of war" up to and including the use of nuclear weapons. Again, no accident one of the first targets was Chernobyl and the cluster of ancient nuclear power stations. Apparently just footfall and tanks/vehicles stirring up the dust is already "a concern"...

Suppose it depends where you get your lies from. Here's a report on what he actually said: Mr Trump described NATO as "obsolete" shortly before taking office and threatened to withdraw the US from the transatlantic alliance if more countries didn't meet the minimum spending requirements of 2% of GDP.

I wonder if the oligarchs will be that fussed about losing a few toys. A $100 million super yacht is little more than a car in the garage to a billionaire. While the west is playing with fiat currency, Russia have real riches, oil, gas, agriculture and a strong ally in China. Oh and oil/gas prices are going through the roof.

The west is weak. We've allowed ourselves to become soft letting corporate greed infiltrate our democratic process and a media system that makes Russian state propaganda look like an open book. Worse still, the world stood by and watched as the worlds former superpower ran a rigged election and installed a weak old man as their puppet president. An old man who made millions out of Ukranian oil lets not forget. I remember being asked "why should we care what happens in the USA" well, now you know.

[Yambo]

I kind of don't get where Putin goes now though.
As far as I can see(pretty sure other people will see other goals as well though) all the goals of his invasion haven't really worked out well.

Putin's not going anywhere until he's taken and that is unlikely.

Putin has said categorically that his invasion, or whatever he calls it is going exactly to plan. Strikes me then, that it was a pretty shit plan, carried out by a pretty shit military. However, he may be right seeing as he seems to be the only fucker that knows the plan.

He wouldn't lie, would he?

[Screwdriver]

I'm going to take a flying guess here and that is he wants to grab Kyiv in one piece without smashing it to bits. 1. so that he can have a media event without the place looking like a warzone and 2. perhaps to encourage Ukrainian forces to gather in one ("safe") spot. Like they'd be so dumb.

Extraordinary to think that until the day of the invasion, the troops really thought they were merely playing out an exercise. Now while it was as obvious as the nose on your face that Putin was indeed planning an invasion, that also raises a couple of points of interest. 1. The Russian soldiers must be fantastically stupid and/or brainwashed and 2. it makes me wonder if the "delay" is in part due to some reluctance to suddenly fall upon their countrymen when the penny dropped.

[Ant]

Are Russian citizens oppressed and brain washed by Putin?

Will sanctions which tar all with the same brush simply cause animosity from the regular Russian towards the West? Is there a hidden Russian Mafia in some Western countries feeling mounting pressure on them?

[irie]

Has been reported that before invading Ukraine Russia had foreign currency reserves of about $630bn, of which about two thirds was held in foreign bank accounts.

Sanctions have frozen the two thirds in foreign bank accounts leaving Russia with perhaps one third, say $210bn, to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

It is also reported that the war on Ukraine costs Russia about $15-20bn per day. So the $210bn would last at best 14 days before Russia runs out of money to finance the war. Any supplier to Russia will only do so for hard currency and not essentially worthless roubles.

The full scale invasion of Ukraine took place on 24th February, so count 5 days in February.

It is now 7th March, that's to date 12 days of war to be paid for.

So it looks like Russia will be out of money to finance the war by the end of this week. That could be a very dangerous time indeed ...

[JackyJoll]

End of the week? That doesn’t give me long to get out there and kick Ivan’s arse!

Hope this bad back of mine is better by then.

[Hoonercat]

Has been reported that before invading Ukraine Russia had foreign currency reserves of about $630bn, of which about two thirds was held in foreign bank accounts.

Sanctions have frozen the two thirds in foreign bank accounts leaving Russia with perhaps one third, say $210bn, to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

It is also reported that the war on Ukraine costs Russia about $15-20bn per day. So the $210bn would last at best 14 days before Russia runs out of money to finance the war. Any supplier to Russia will only do so for hard currency and not essentially worthless roubles.

The full scale invasion of Ukraine took place on 24th February, so count 5 days in February.

It is now 7th March, that's to date 12 days of war to be paid for.

So it looks like Russia will be out of money to finance the war by the end of this week. That could be a very dangerous time indeed ...

I've seen estimates from $2-$25 billion per day, which suggests that no one really has the slightest idea of the actual cost.

One estimate, from the Ukrainian-based Centre for Economic Recovery, a think tank close to Ukraine’s government, has estimated that first five days of the war may have cost Russia as much as $7 billion in direct military costs

This estimate included loss of troops and the loss of their economic input to the Russian economy over the next 40 years.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

What does Russia need to import to carry on it's invasion of Ukraine?
The Russians make their own weapons and are rich in resources like oil, gas, steel and lead.

[Mussels]

I had a look at Pravda this afternoon, there's a piece about western propoganda. It looks like they aren't printing anything that can be disproved so there's not a lot in there, I think this quote may have been a mistake as anyone can see it's a short list even though they replace 'are' with 'include'.

Those countries who have currently remained silent from hysterical condemnation, or supported Russian's actions include: China, India, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Belarus and Nicaragua.

They have an article on how Ukraine refused humanitarian corridors but failed to mention those corridors only went towards Russia.

[Yambo]

I had a look at Pravda this afternoon, there's a piece about western propoganda. It looks like they aren't printing anything that can be disproved so there's not a lot in there, I think this quote may have been a mistake as anyone can see it's a short list even though they replace 'are' with 'include'.

Those countries who have currently remained silent from hysterical condemnation, or supported Russian's actions include: China, India, United Arab Emirates, Syria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Cuba, Belarus and Nicaragua.

They have an article on how Ukraine refused humanitarian corridors but failed to mention those corridors only went towards Russian concentration camps.

Fixed that for you.

[Mussels]

That did cross my mind, I can't see them allowing any contact with the natives.

[Bigyin]

That did cross my mind, I can't see them allowing any contact with the natives.

But any who did take the option will be filmed by Russian State TV crossing the border into mother Russia thus justifying the fiction of the special military operation liberating poor Ukranian citizens from their nazi oppressors

[Felix]

Starve them into submission. Fucked now Putin

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60665877

[demographic]

Seems Priti Patel isn't doing herself any favours over obstructing refugees into the UK.
She's claiming they're all world beating yada yada but in reality theres only been 300 visas setup for the refugees where other European countries have just waived the need for visas full stop.
They she was caught lying yesterday and then tried to bullshit her way out.

Interesting to note that her parents were granted asylum after escaping from Uganda with Idi Amin (sp?) was being a twat but she's been pretty harsh on anyone escaping Syria, Afghanistan and now not really catching on fast about Ukraine either.

[irie]

How soon will Putin pull the plugs on gas to the EU? My guess is that when his troops are obviously being defeated in northern Ukraine he will become desperate and lash out. I give it max 2 weeks from now. Unless Germany hasn't pulled the plug before then, of course.

[Count Steer]

Seems Priti Patel isn't doing herself any favours over obstructing refugees into the UK.
She's claiming they're all world beating yada yada but in reality theres only been 300 visas setup for the refugees where other European countries have just waived the need for visas full stop.
They she was caught lying yesterday and then tried to bullshit her way out.

She even ducked the flak and sent an underling to face the music in Parliament. Her own side of the benches were pretty scathing with one saying that the lie about facilities in France was a resignation issue. (She won't resign of course, as she's already done that once over her secret meetings with Israeli lobbyists. One resignation is enough in any career eh? ).

[Mussels]

Putin has made an announcement that he won't be taking conscripts into Ukraine or calling up reservists, I'd expect that as he has a huge army so why is he recruiting mercenaries from Syria? Too many Russian deaths making him unpopular maybe.

And yes it's shocking that it's taking a few days to get people from France to England, especially as France is a dangerous war zone like Ukraine.

[irie]

Putin has made an announcement that he won't be taking conscripts into Ukraine ...

From what I can see there are already large numbers of Russian conscripts in Ukraine. Perhaps Putin really means no more than are already there, or being shipped back in wooden boxes?