Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Horse]

(Some Russian politicians/diplomats have already sent their families out of the country, lots of IT types and others trying to leave and what were £250 flights out now priced at £4000).

They might need to get on the hurry up.



Very few aircraft are actually owned by airlines, and instead most are owned by lessor companies, most of which are Irish. Under the sanctions regime, the view in the legal community is that those leases have to be terminated, otherwise Irish companies will be criminally liable.

More importantly: Russian operators are unable to effect insurances. Without those, no national aviation authority will allow access to its airspace. This would in effect mean the end of Russian operators flying internationally.

Furthermore, despite the presence of some Sukhois, Ilyushins and Antonovs, the bulk of aircraft operated in Russia is still Boeing and Airbus. Those use CFM, GE and Rolls Royce engines.

All these manufactures have cut off access to repair manuals without which the aircraft and engines cannot be serviced. They have also issued a global ban on servicing in other countries, so that Russian aircraft cannot be flown abroad for maintenance

They have also stopped the supply of spare parts. From talking to our clients, I understand most airlines keep about a 2 or 3 weeks worth of spares supplies.

What does this mean? Russia will be in effect cut off from international travel, perhaps with the notable exception of China. It will be more isolated than the USSR, and even domestic journeys will be severely limited.

Sanctions - if drafted well - do work.

Europe is relatively unique in having an ‘open sky’. Provided an airline meets certain criteria, it can fly as many flights it wants within European airspace. Other countries don’t always have this, and the number of flights and airports pairs (routes) between them is regulated.

Unless, say, Turkey enters into an open sky agreement with Russia, which surely is unthinkable in the circumstances, the number of flights going to Turkey will be heavily suppressed by regulation.

They therefore won’t even be able to refuel or pay for airport charges. Even China would have to accept either a cash payment the yuans held by the Russian Central Bank or some form of extended credit, both of which are very unlikely.

[MingtheMerciless]

Time for some Privateer or Corsair action against Oligarch vessels seizing them as prizes?.......as well as other Russian ships.

[Horse]

Time for some Privateer or Corsair action against Oligarch vessels seizing them as prizes?.......as well as other Russian ships.

Or turn them into submarines?

A Ukrainian sailor has admitted trying to sink a yacht owned by the head of a Russian state arms firm, in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine.

The 48m (157ft) Lady Anastasia, which belongs to Rosoboronexport director general Alexander Mikheev, was docked in Majorca in Spain when the mechanic opened valves in its engine room.

He was arrested by Civil Guard officers on Saturday and later released on bail.

[Bigyin]

I can see fully why the Russian negotiators will be happy to allow "evacuation corridors" for the civilian population of cities. Once the majority of the civilians flee it will allow the Russian forces to up the barrage of the cities and flatten them and move in without having to deal with the negative press of collateral fatalities or street to street fighting which always brings casualties for those moving into the area they dont know.

Whilst i admire the resistance of the Ukranian forces i fear once the leash is let off the Russian forces with less civilian population around they will be overwhelmed and Russia will then occupy a destroyed country with a vastly reduced resentful population and no means to rebuild it as their own economy wont be able to support itself never mind the country they flattened

[irie]

This very well sums up the root causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/for-ukr ... ndication/

For Ukraine’s envoy to Germany, a bittersweet vindication

As Ukrainian leaders struggled to find common ground with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in recent years, Andrij Melnyk faced a diplomatic challenge no less daunting: winning over the Germans.

Melnyk’s unlikely journey from persona non grata to the toast of the town in the space of a few days says as much about Berlin’s long-lasting refusal to acknowledge that it had misjudged Putin as it does about the ambassador’s perseverance.

By exposing the institutional torpor that seized Germany’s foreign policy establishment during the years of former Chancellor Angela Merkel and its slavish devotion to “dialogue” in the absence of progress, his experience also raises a more fundamental question for the West: Is Germany a reliable ally?

Edit: insert quote

[Horse]

Microsoft goes to war

https://www-seattletimes-com.cdn.amppro ... war/?amp=1


Last Wednesday, a few hours before Russian tanks began rolling into Ukraine, alarms went off inside Microsoft’s Threat Intelligence Center, warning of a never-before-seen piece of “wiper” malware that appeared aimed at the country’s government ministries and financial institutions.

Within three hours, Microsoft threw itself into the middle of a ground war in Europe — from 5,500 miles away. The threat center, north of Seattle, had been on high alert, and it quickly picked apart the malware, named it “FoxBlade” and notified Ukraine’s top cyberdefense authority. Within three hours, Microsoft’s virus detection systems had been updated to block the code, which erases — “wipes” — data on computers in a network.

Then Tom Burt, the senior Microsoft executive who oversees the company’s effort to counter major cyberattacks, contacted Anne Neuberger, the White House’s deputy national security adviser for cyber and emerging technologies. Neuberger asked if Microsoft would consider sharing details of the code with the Baltics, Poland and other European nations, out of fear that the malware would spread beyond Ukraine’s borders, crippling the military alliance or hitting West European banks.

[Mussels]

I'm only surprised we haven't seen more cyber attacks, I was half expecting the internet to implode. They haven't even managed to do much to stop Russians seeing the outside world.

[Hoonercat]

This very well sums up the root causes of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.politico.eu/article/for-ukr ... ndication/

For Ukraine’s envoy to Germany, a bittersweet vindication

As Ukrainian leaders struggled to find common ground with Russia’s Vladimir Putin in recent years, Andrij Melnyk faced a diplomatic challenge no less daunting: winning over the Germans.

Melnyk’s unlikely journey from persona non grata to the toast of the town in the space of a few days says as much about Berlin’s long-lasting refusal to acknowledge that it had misjudged Putin as it does about the ambassador’s perseverance.

By exposing the institutional torpor that seized Germany’s foreign policy establishment during the years of former Chancellor Angela Merkel and its slavish devotion to “dialogue” in the absence of progress, his experience also raises a more fundamental question for the West: Is Germany a reliable ally?

Edit: insert quote

You don't appear to understand the meaning of 'root cause'.

[Hoonercat]

Putin will probably be succeeded by someone just as delusional. It's the Russian way.

With the Russian economy in ruins, set back at least 50 years, and a young social media generation, perhaps not.

If the west continues with the sanctions after the Russia-Ukraine conflict has ended, the Russian economy will indeed be in ruins. Unemployment will surge, the ruble will tank, inflation will surge as will interest rates, and tens of millions of Russians will drop into extreme poverty, making them reliant on the state. The problem with people being reliant on the state is that the power of the state increases over those people, especially when the state can lay the blame on the shoulders of the west.

[Yambo]

If the west continues with the sanctions after the Russia-Ukraine conflict has ended, the Russian economy will indeed be in ruins. Unemployment will surge, the ruble will tank, inflation will surge as will interest rates, and tens of millions of Russians will drop into extreme poverty, making them reliant on the state. The problem with people being reliant on the state is that the power of the state increases over those people, especially when the state can lay the blame on the shoulders of the west.

If the West doesn't continue with the sanctions for any length of time then future sanctions won't deter Putin/Russia from doing the same thing again. Without a complete withdrawal of troops, reparations and concrete guarantees (highly unlikely) from Russia that they'll be good boys (and get rid of Putin!) the sanctions need to stay in place and the Russian people can relieve themselves of Putin's control.

They just need a civil war (not a new October Revolution) to get themselves sorted.

[Nordboy]

Unfortunately, I think that the West has already decided or are quickly facing the fact that Ukraine will become part of Russia. They've been caught with their trousers down. All the supply of weapons and Aid, financial sanctions (which I do think could go further) is just them going through the motions to try and save face and make themselves look good when they look in the mirror. They can spout about how they did as much as they could under the circumstances for months and years to come.

At some stage, is the continued arming of the Ukrainians just prolonging the agony and potentially adding to the death toll? Not necessarily my POV but it's been raised in conversations I've had with others.

[JackyJoll]

They just need a civil war (not a new October Revolution)

They don’t get to choose, once things get that bad.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

I'm only surprised we haven't seen more cyber attacks, I was half expecting the internet to implode. They haven't even managed to do much to stop Russians seeing the outside world.

Most IT Security people don't want the publicity that Microsoft want.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

At some stage, is the continued arming of the Ukrainians just prolonging the agony and potentially adding to the death toll? Not necessarily my POV but it's been raised in conversations I've had with others.

It is my point of view, there are two (three if you include WW3 ) endings to this, Putin gets what he wants, or Russia removes Putin, the Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia and NATO aren't going to go to war with Russia.

[Supermofo]

From his chat with Macron yesterday sounds like Putin is sticking to his plan. So looks like this will only end once Ukraine is overcome or Putin is gone. I reckon the former is more likely than the latter. So it'll just be how much punishment Ukraine is prepared to take.

What a shit situation.

[Mussels]

Putting the old pro-Russia Ukrainian president back in isn't an option as he's been vocal against Putin.
Pussy Riot has endorsed an NFT of the Ukraine flag that sold for $6.7 million, possibly boosted by threatening to release a new video if it didn't sell.

[Asian Boss]

We turned off a power station in Iran not long ago, not for long, just to let them know we could. It was kept quiet, unless you're on the gold calls you probably wouldn't know.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

We turned off a power station in Iran not long ago, not for long, just to let them know we could. It was kept quiet, unless you're on the gold calls you probably wouldn't know.

What do you mean we?
I wouldn't trust you with an electric kettle that didn't switch off automatically.

[Asian Boss]

We turned off a power station in Iran not long ago, not for long, just to let them know we could. It was kept quiet, unless you're on the gold calls you probably wouldn't know.

What do you mean we?
I wouldn't trust you with an electric kettle that didn't switch off automatically.

I'm sensing you're not on the gold calls.

[KungFooBob]

I thought it was either CIA or Mossad hackers who 'disabled' the Iranian installation, when you say we, which one of the two do you work for?

Can you teach me krav maga?