Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Cousin Jack]

I was at a big fancy do (real fancy see, stamp collecting) and there was an old Russian guy who had held a fairly senior rank in the Russian army in the past. He was totally pro Putin and thought the USSR should be put back together. I got the feeling he was part of a tiny minority however.

That's the problem with democracy/capitalism - you have to work at it. Russia started heading towards it, then the big boys decided they wanted the capitalist bit (so they could become very, very rich) without all the attendant problems of democracy, like having to win votes. And all the little Russian people thought it would be nice to be told what to do, like in the old Communist system. Not to have to decide where to work, and not to have to save for somewhere to live, with the problem of having diddley squat if you were lazy. So they allowed Putin and his mates to take over, and now they have the worst of all worlds. No nice capitalist toys, and a totalitarian regime.

There are 2 ways this will end.

Russia takes over at least 1/2 of Ukraine, probably all of it. And starts planning the next move.
Russia decides it has had enough of Putin and someone more sensible takes over and backs off.

I much prefer the 2nd option, but the first is far more likely

[slowsider]

Apparently the Ukrainian National Agency for Protection against Corruption has issued a statement saying the captured Russian Tanks and other equipment do not have to be declared as income.

Again?

Income tax exemption on any armoured vehicles you may have acquired

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/804441.html

[slowsider]

I was at a big fancy do (real fancy see, stamp collecting) and there was an old Russian guy who had held a fairly senior rank in the Russian army in the past. He was totally pro Putin and thought the USSR should be put back together. I got the feeling he was part of a tiny minority however.

That's something of an oxymoron. Trump and the US right wingers love Putin, and it's not because he's a Communist.

[Cousin Jack]

That's something of an oxymoron. Trump and the US right wingers love Putin, and it's not because he's a Communist.

Stalin sorted out all the Communists years ago.

[irie]

I was at a big fancy do (real fancy see, stamp collecting) and there was an old Russian guy who had held a fairly senior rank in the Russian army in the past. He was totally pro Putin and thought the USSR should be put back together. I got the feeling he was part of a tiny minority however.

That's the problem with democracy/capitalism - you have to work at it. Russia started heading towards it, then the big boys decided they wanted the capitalist bit (so they could become very, very rich) without all the attendant problems of democracy, like having to win votes. And all the little Russian people thought it would be nice to be told what to do, like in the old Communist system. Not to have to decide where to work, and not to have to save for somewhere to live, with the problem of having diddley squat if you were lazy. So they allowed Putin and his mates to take over, and now they have the worst of all worlds. No nice capitalist toys, and a totalitarian regime.

There are 2 ways this will end.

Russia takes over at least 1/2 of Ukraine, probably all of it. And starts planning the next move.
Russia decides it has had enough of Putin and someone more sensible takes over and backs off.

I much prefer the 2nd option, but the first is far more likely

Most likely a combination of the 2 options. Russian tactics have changed.

Russia takes over the whole of Ukraine but holds only cities but not the country. At a (perhaps much) later date with the Russian economy in freefall Putin will be replaced (by force or otherwise). Then Russia will leave Ukraine as a pile of rubble. As a concession parts of southeast Ukraine may be ceded to Russia. Ukraine will then join the EU and become a member of Nato.

Putin is delusional.

Edit: sp

[Yambo]

I don't think NATO can afford to have Ukraine as a member.

Putin will probably be succeeded by someone just as delusional. It's the Russian way.

[Mussels]

I don't think NATO can afford to have Ukraine as a member.

Putin will probably be succeeded by someone just as delusional. It's the Russian way.

It depends how fair the next elections are, Zelenski walked the Ukraine election on the back of anti-corruption and I suspect any Russians with internet access would welcome a similar change.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

I doubt if NATO or the EU want Ukraine as a member, does NATO need another member that doesn't spend enough of GDP on defence, does the EU need another money pit?

[MrLongbeard]

I doubt if NATO or the EU want Ukraine as a member, does NATO need another member that doesn't spend enough of GDP on defence, does the EU need another money pit?

NATO requires 2% of GDP to be spent on defence;

Ukraine meets that threshold https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS ... cations=UA

Germany don't https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS ... cations=DE

[Mussels]

I doubt if NATO or the EU want Ukraine as a member, does NATO need another member that doesn't spend enough of GDP on defence, does the EU need another money pit?

NATO requires 2% of GDP to be spent on defence;

Ukraine meets that threshold https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS ... cations=UA

Germany don't https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS ... cations=DE

Germany have just decided that maybe they should, they aren't the worst offender in NATO and I hope a few others are rethinking it.

[Hoonercat]

I quite like an educated man in the pub ranter sometimes though

I kind of feel the international community missed a trick back in 2015 when ethnic Russians living in Ukraine declared that they wanted to be ruled by Russia. A quick visit to any British pub would have brought forward the perfect solution, "Tell 'em to pack their bags and piss off back to Russia then".

[irie]

I don't think NATO can afford to have Ukraine as a member.

An ideal frontline to station NATO assets, which is one of the things Putin feared of course.

Putin will probably be succeeded by someone just as delusional. It's the Russian way.

With the Russian economy in ruins, set back at least 50 years, and a young social media generation, perhaps not.

[irie]

Anyway, all I'm saying is don't believe everything you see/hear in western media, because even if it's not outright bollocks then it still always has an agenda.

Former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev has called on Russian diplomats to resign in protest over the war in Ukraine.

“I call on all Russian diplomats to resign in protest,” he tweeted on Tuesday. “Dear Russian diplomats, you are professionals and not cheap propagandists.”

“When I worked at the Foreign Ministry, I was proud of my colleagues,” Kozyrev added. “Now it is simply impossible to support the bloody fratricidal war in Ukraine.”
Kozyrev was foreign minister from 1991 to1996 under President Boris Yeltsin.

But he lives in America so he must been brainwashed.

[MingtheMerciless]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

We are toast, he's bonkers

[irie]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

We are toast, he's bonkers

Absolutely fucking bonkers.

delusional

- characterized by or holding idiosyncratic beliefs or impressions that are contradicted by reality or rational argument, typically as a symptom of mental disorder.

"hospitalization for schizophrenia and delusional paranoia"

- based on or having faulty judgement; mistaken.

"their delusional belief in the project's merits never wavers"

[Dodgy69]

By the time Putin gets his hands on Ukraine, it'll be one big pile of rubble.

[slowsider]

I don't think NATO can afford to have Ukraine as a member.

An ideal frontline to station NATO assets, which is one of the things Putin feared of course.

Putin will probably be succeeded by someone just as delusional. It's the Russian way.

With the Russian economy in ruins, set back at least 50 years, and a young social media generation, perhaps not.

What, you think its gonna be a democratic vote ?

[Count Steer]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-e ... type=share

We are toast, he's bonkers

He's talking about paying millions of roubles out to families of dead soldiers and invalided out soldiers. (Aside from the fact it will be worth 4d by the time he's finished, it won't get paid anyway but that will suppressed). Prediction: tomorrow Putin declares martial law and brings in conscription soon after.

(Some Russian politicians/diplomats have already sent their families out of the country, lots of IT types and others trying to leave and what were £250 flights out now priced at £4000).

[Horse]

(Some Russian politicians/diplomats have already sent their families out of the country, lots of IT types and others trying to leave and what were £250 flights out now priced at £4000).

They might need to get on the hurry up.



Very few aircraft are actually owned by airlines, and instead most are owned by lessor companies, most of which are Irish. Under the sanctions regime, the view in the legal community is that those leases have to be terminated, otherwise Irish companies will be criminally liable.

More importantly: Russian operators are unable to effect insurances. Without those, no national aviation authority will allow access to its airspace. This would in effect mean the end of Russian operators flying internationally.

Furthermore, despite the presence of some Sukhois, Ilyushins and Antonovs, the bulk of aircraft operated in Russia is still Boeing and Airbus. Those use CFM, GE and Rolls Royce engines.

All these manufactures have cut off access to repair manuals without which the aircraft and engines cannot be serviced. They have also issued a global ban on servicing in other countries, so that Russian aircraft cannot be flown abroad for maintenance

They have also stopped the supply of spare parts. From talking to our clients, I understand most airlines keep about a 2 or 3 weeks worth of spares supplies.

What does this mean? Russia will be in effect cut off from international travel, perhaps with the notable exception of China. It will be more isolated than the USSR, and even domestic journeys will be severely limited.

Sanctions - if drafted well - do work.

Europe is relatively unique in having an ‘open sky’. Provided an airline meets certain criteria, it can fly as many flights it wants within European airspace. Other countries don’t always have this, and the number of flights and airports pairs (routes) between them is regulated.

Unless, say, Turkey enters into an open sky agreement with Russia, which surely is unthinkable in the circumstances, the number of flights going to Turkey will be heavily suppressed by regulation.

They therefore won’t even be able to refuel or pay for airport charges. Even China would have to accept either a cash payment the yuans held by the Russian Central Bank or some form of extended credit, both of which are very unlikely.

[MingtheMerciless]

Time for some Privateer or Corsair action against Oligarch vessels seizing them as prizes?.......as well as other Russian ships.