Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[wheelnut]

I want a tank!

Tanks-alot.co.uk have a T34/85 Main Battle Tank for sale at the moment. A snip at £120k. Doesn't say if it has an MoT. Just the job for a bit of shopping. (You can get a Chieftain for less, but it's harder to find the right size parking space).

I suspect it would be be able to make its own parking space.

[Mussels]

I've been looking for other perspectives on this and found this interesting in the Moscow Times, it was written in December and makes it clear why the Russian government is so keen not to call it a war. Interesting how Russian people are slowly realising that if nobody else likes you then other people might not be the problem.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/12/ ... ine-a75847

[KungFooBob]

I'm supposed to be going to Romania for work w/c 7th. We have an office in Romania.

How likely do you think my trip is going to happen?

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

You'll be going.

[KungFooBob]

Aye, I reckon even global thermonuclear war won't stop our WMS roll out.

[Bigyin]

Looking at sources of video emerging from Ukraine today show the Russian TV side of the glorious advance in to defend the occupants of Ukraine against the dictators and Putin ramping up the Generals to put the nuclear option on standby

From the Ukranian side there is footage of Ukranian civilians taking the piss out of Russian tank crews who have run out of fuel and stuck by the road. A Ukranian woman fronting Russian troops who tell her they are on exercise so she tells them to fuck off as a bunch of occupiers and offers them sunflower seeds to put in their pockets so when they die on Ukranian soil at least something good will grow.

Add in the assorted footage of Russian attack helicopter shoot downs, blown up Russian armour and supposed Spetznaz (meant to be Russia's elite Special Forces ) but look far more like a normal mounted infantry company by their numbers and tactics being ambushed in the streets and retreating. We also have CCTV footage of shops being looted by Russian troops looking for food

You have to love a propaganda show

[JackyJoll]

look far more like a normal mounted infantry

The inevitable threat of the mounted foot regiment.

[Docca]

The problem with calling the nuclear bluff is that it tips the scales of ego and saving face just that little bit more towards fucked.

I’ve been quite casual about the whole thing until he played the nuclear card. Then you have the Russian prime time host asking ‘what is a world without Russia anyway?’ And proceeds to tell the world how many warheads they have- and I’m a little more anxious and will sleep a little less well today.

I’m hoping talks will be positive tomorrow

[Bigyin]

The problem with calling the nuclear bluff is that it tips the scales of ego and saving face just that little bit more towards fucked.

I’ve been quite casual about the whole thing until he played the nuclear card. Then you have the Russian prime time host asking ‘what is a world without Russia anyway?’ And proceeds to tell the world how many warheads they have- and I’m a little more anxious and will sleep a little less well today.

I’m hoping talks will be positive tomorrow

I think the most productive thing will be all those Russians with access to non state controlled news and internet looking at world wide response to everything from political and economic sanctions and even those with fuck all political interests realising that all their football, F1, holiday flights and everything else is now cancelled and saying "WTF, why is this happening when all we are doing is helping our oppressed neighbours out"

He could always bluff the invasion and we knew it could/would go ahead but after Ukraine actually resisting and it not going to a quick and easy plan then bluffing a bucket of instant sunshine is a whole new game and i doubt even the staged Generals from todays PR news conference would think its a good idea

[Asian Boss]

We share the same biology, regardless of ideology; but what might save us, me and you ... is if the Russians love their children too.

[irie]

I'm supposed to be going to Romania for work w/c 7th. We have an office in Romania.

How likely do you think my trip is going to happen?

If (a) the Russian armoured column currently moving towards Kyiv is destroyed then yes, I think you will probably be going.

But if (b) Kyiv is occupied by Russian forces then no, I don't think you'll be going.

If I had to bet it would be on (a) because I think there are significant covert forces (such as drones, and not only Turkish made ones) helping Ukrainians destroy Russian convoys and supply lines. Other than helicopters, it's surprising how empty Ukrainian skies seem to be.

[Hoonercat]

Looking at sources of video emerging from Ukraine today show the Russian TV side of the glorious advance in to defend the occupants of Ukraine against the dictators and Putin ramping up the Generals to put the nuclear option on standby

From the Ukranian side there is footage of Ukranian civilians taking the piss out of Russian tank crews who have run out of fuel and stuck by the road. A Ukranian woman fronting Russian troops who tell her they are on exercise so she tells them to fuck off as a bunch of occupiers and offers them sunflower seeds to put in their pockets so when they die on Ukranian soil at least something good will grow.

Add in the assorted footage of Russian attack helicopter shoot downs, blown up Russian armour and supposed Spetznaz (meant to be Russia's elite Special Forces ) but look far more like a normal mounted infantry company by their numbers and tactics being ambushed in the streets and retreating. We also have CCTV footage of shops being looted by Russian troops looking for food

You have to love a propaganda show

No doubt they're both at it. Western journos in Moscow report that state TV is only showing what's happening in Donbas and not even mentioning Kyiv, while the western world seems to be focussed on Kyiv and hearing little about Donbas. Ukraine is constantly reporting its victories (again, mainly around the Kyiv region) while keeping very quiet about Donbas, despite the bulk of its army being stationed there, which suggests things are not going its way in the region, where the bulk of Russian airstrikes and missile strikes are occuring. It's also becoming apparent that the Russian forces around Kyiv are not exactly elite troops (to say the least). Donbas appears to be the main battleground and reports are suggesting that Russia is close to opening a landlink between the region and Crimea.
I'd never claim to be a military expert, but to me it seems like Kyiv is something of a red herring, designed to pull Ukrainian troops away from the Donbas region. I still think Donbas is Putin's goal, this is how he has sold it to the Russian people and it gives him an out once it is taken, having achieved his objective. He said from the start of the invasion that Ukraine wouldn't be occupied, a day after declaring the Donbas region independent. The sneaky bugger.
As a former Russian ambassador commented yesterday, you will never understand Putin's objectives by looking at it through western eyes.

[JackyJoll]

We share the same biology, regardless of ideology; but what might save us, me and you ... is if the Russians love their children too.

[Skub]

That being said, it's still incredibly difficult to shift determined resistance and occupy hostile areas, the cream of the west got chased out of Afghanistan by blokes in flip-flops, so it's not surprising that the Ukraine (and it's western help) isn't an easy pushover.

I'm not an avid historian,but has there ever been a recent war where the invading army won against insurgents?

[Hoonercat]

That being said, it's still incredibly difficult to shift determined resistance and occupy hostile areas, the cream of the west got chased out of Afghanistan by blokes in flip-flops, so it's not surprising that the Ukraine (and it's western help) isn't an easy pushover.

I'm not an avid historian,but has there ever been a recent war where the invading army won against insurgents?

Russia-Chechnya

[Yambo]

Unsurprisingly, the arsehole Bolsanaro has sided with Russia.

Bolsonaro has refused to condemn Russia's invasion and on Sunday said Brazil would stay "neutral" in the conflict, adding that Brazil and Russia are "practically brother nations".

"We will not take sides, we will continue being neutral, and help with whatever is possible," Bolsonaro said. "A big part of Ukraine's population speaks Russian."

Is that irony from the Portugese speaking c*unt?

[KungFooBob]

I'm supposed to be going to Romania for work w/c 7th. We have an office in Romania.

How likely do you think my trip is going to happen?

If (a) the Russian armoured column currently moving towards Kyiv is destroyed then yes, I think you will probably be going.

But if (b) Kyiv is occupied by Russian forces then no, I don't think you'll be going.

If I had to bet it would be on (a) because I think there are significant covert forces (such as drones, and not only Turkish made ones) helping Ukrainians destroy Russian convoys and supply lines. Other than helicopters, it's surprising how empty Ukrainian skies seem to be.

The flights have just been booked, we'll see what happens.

The MD (who lives in Romania) says it's business as normal over there at the moment.

[slowsider]

Unsurprisingly, the arsehole Bolsanaro has sided with Russia.

Bolsonaro has refused to condemn Russia's invasion and on Sunday said Brazil would stay "neutral" in the conflict, adding that Brazil and Russia are "practically brother nations".

"We will not take sides, we will continue being neutral, and help with whatever is possible," Bolsonaro said. "A big part of Ukraine's population speaks Russian."

Is that irony from the Portugese speaking c*unt?

Neutrality isn't siding with anyone.
Switzerland hasn't applied sanctions. The Russian gold has no problem integrating with the remaining nazi loot.

[irie]

Being reported that at the same time as Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are meeting on the Ukraine/Belarus border, Russian forces are shelling Kharkiv.

Good grief.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-inva ... s-12553865

Dozens of people have been killed in mass shelling in Kharkiv, the Ukrainian interior ministry says, as fierce fighting continues into the fifth day of the conflict.

"Kharkiv has just been massively fired upon by grads (rockets). Dozens of dead and hundreds of wounded," Ukrainian interior ministry adviser Anton Herashchenko said in a post on Facebook.

Sky News defence and security editor Deborah Haynes, in Ukraine, said: "There has been a horrific bombardment of Ukraine's second city. The images that are appearing... give a sense that something very horrific has happened."

Sky News has located these videos to north-eastern Kharkiv. A military expert has told Sky News that this appears to be the classic pattern for a cluster munition.

A cluster munition is a form of air-dropped or ground-launched explosive weapon that releases or ejects smaller submunitions. Commonly, this is a cluster bomb that ejects explosive bomblets that are designed to kill personnel and destroy vehicles.

In a city?

[Asian Boss]

Also on Sky news, another big Tory win from this exemplary government.

Well done to all those who put them in place to 'get it done'.

Liz Truss comments sparked Putin decision to put nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, Kremlin says.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-inva ... s-12554048