Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[JackyJoll]

It is reported that Putin does not have a smartphone, or any other phone for that matter.

Neither does the US president, the secret service doesn’t allow it.*

What about the Hotline?

[Count Steer]

BBC today:

The EU, US and their allies have agreed to cut off a number of Russian banks from the main international payment system, Swift.

The assets of Russia's central bank will also be frozen, limiting Russia's ability to access its overseas reserves.

That will probably frustrate them less than the fact that they or their proxies haven't managed to bring down any scheduled flights yet. That's the usual game plan when struggling against a bunch of reservists.

[MingtheMerciless]

From the military bloggers I follow, it would appear that the corruption and mismanagement of the Russian Army is aiding the Ukrainian Army. It would seem that there are a lot of ghosts soldiers within units that have had to be rapidly filled with untrained conscripts. Also that the poor standard of some of the RA equipment has surprised the UA soldiers. There are reports of APC, tanks etc running out of fuel and troops out of food as logistical support is stretched to the limit. One hypothesis is that the RA hoped a swift invasion would hide the logistical woes from above.

The UA Turkish TB2 drones seem to be being used to devastating effect on RA supply lines and convoys as they can operate off roads rather than airstrips.

The above is all from the twittersphere etc so should be taken with a pinch of salt etc.

The downside to the effectiveness of the UA defence is that the Russian are now moving up tracked heavy mortars and rocket systems (reported in the Independent), capable of firing thermobaric weapons and resorting to blanket bombardment.

[Noggin]

I haven’t read all this thread and don’t understand politics/politicians in general, so haven’t really read or understood what I have read

This, from an FB post kinda helped me! Extra simplistic and ignores a huge amount of other stuff. But it did help

I was in Morrisons doing some shopping today when Megan called me. She was out with her friends and said "Mum, one of the boys said Russia is about to enter the UK and start fighting us, so we're really scared".

Well, I'm not sure what anyone around me shopping thought about my explanation to a bunch of 11 year olds about Russia and Ukraine, but it went something like.....

After the last BIG playground fight (WW2), lots of popular kids (WORLD LEADERS) got together and made a big gang (NATO), and all the kids in the gang made a pinky promise (TREATY) to be nice and respectful and not fight each other anymore.

This means not going into each other's part of the playground (COUNTRY) without permission, and not throwing sticks or stones (HEAVY ARTILLERY) at each other, and the UK is part of the gang.

But then a new kid (UKRAINE) joined the playground, and a big bad bullly (RUSSIA) started picking on the new kid, all because he is greedy and bossy and wanted the new kids playground space for himself, even though he has one of the biggest spaces in the playground.

But sadly, the new kid is not part of the gang because the big bad bully didn't want the new kid to join the gang.

We would be breaking our pinky promise if any of the gang members help the new kid fight the bully.

We have all told the bully off, and stuck up for the new kid by hiding the bully's pocket money until the bully stops hurting the new kid (SANCTIONS) and this will hopefully stop the bully from buying more sticks and stones.

We have also given the new kid lots of our own sticks and stones to fight the bully, because this is not breaking the pinky promise!

Even though it is really, really sad, all we can do now is stand on the edge of the playground and watch and give moral support to the new kid, because we are not allowed to fight the bully for them, not without breaking the pinky promise.

BUT... if the bully breaks the pinky promise and comes into our part of the playground (UK) without permission and throws a stick or stone at us, then the whole of the gang (NATO) will come and help us, and we will ALL jump on top of the bully (RUSSIA) and beat him up.

Now don't worry anymore sweetheart, just go and play nicely together in the sunshine and don't get up to any trouble. .

[Hoonercat]

From the military bloggers I follow, it would appear that the corruption and mismanagement of the Russian Army is aiding the Ukrainian Army. It would seem that there are a lot of ghosts soldiers within units that have had to be rapidly filled with untrained conscripts. Also that the poor standard of some of the RA equipment has surprised the UA soldiers. There are reports of APC, tanks etc running out of fuel and troops out of food as logistical support is stretched to the limit. One hypothesis is that the RA hoped a swift invasion would hide the logistical woes from above.

The UA Turkish TB2 drones seem to be being used to devastating effect on RA supply lines and convoys as they can operate off roads rather than airstrips.

The above is all from the twittersphere etc so should be taken with a pinch of salt etc.

The downside to the effectiveness of the UA defence is that the Russian are now moving up tracked heavy mortars and rocket systems (reported in the Independent), capable of firing thermobaric weapons and resorting to blanket bombardment.

I mentioned those drones in an earlier post as they have (reportedly) been shown to be very effective, but wasn't sure if they were still in action as Russia targeted them at the start of the campaign.
Living where I do, and having a lot of Bulgarian/Ukrainian contacts, my FB feed has been overloaded with vids about the conflict. I don't want to underplay the defence put up by Ukraine, but Russian forces seem to be very unprepared, lacking commitment, uncoordinated and leaderless. Their troops appear to be largely made up of conscripts, they are lackig supplies (vids of them looting food shops as well as stealing money from the tills) and judging by the way they are chatting with locals seem completely unaware that thousand of civillians have been issued arms. Troops coming from Belarus have stated they had no idea they were going to war and were told they were heading to Crimea for further military exercises (according to Ukraine, captured Russian troops had their phones confiscated before being deployed) and there is talk this morning of mutiny among 5,000 Russian troops refusing to enter Ukraine (yet to be confirmed so it could be nonsense).
Putin has deployed Chechen fighters around Kyiv. Must admit I didn't believe that when I first read it (it was on FB) but Ukraine reporting to have destroyed a Chechen unit this morning on the outskirts of Kyiv. They are expected to be doing most of the street fighting in Kyiv, but sending in Muslim fighters against fellow Eastern Orthodox Christians isn't going down to well here, given the perception of them is one of brutality to civillians and being pro-jihadist due to past connections with ISIS.

[irie]

There have been large numbers of Javelin, Stinger, and Nlaw hand held weapons supplied to Ukraine with huge shipments probably arriving today. My guess is that Ukrainian forces will not try to stop tanks and armour entering Kyiv, but instead attack them in the narrow streets where hand held weapons have a strategic advantage. Have so far heard no reports of Russian ground attack aircraft being used in Ukrainian airspace ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MBT_LAW

[JackyJoll]

I want a tank!

[Bigyin]

The Russian forces must be on fairly strict rules of engagement when it comes to entering the cities because the numbers they have and amount of heavy armour should roll through unless they are warned about collateral damage to buildings and more importantly the civilian population.

In other conflicts they would drop barrel bombs and annihilate neighbourhoods to get a few fighters but in Ukraine (apart from a few reported incidents) it all seems very careful

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

I want a tank!

Get your arse to Ukraine and they'll probably let you have one, they handed out 16,000 AK47s to anyone who wanted one.

[JackyJoll]

I want a tank!

Get your arse to Ukraine and they'll probably let you have one, they handed out 16,000 AK47s to anyone who wanted one.

No, just to play in.

[Yambo]

I want a tank!

Combi boiler is probably a better idea.

[Count Steer]

I want a tank!

Tanks-alot.co.uk have a T34/85 Main Battle Tank for sale at the moment. A snip at £120k. Doesn't say if it has an MoT. Just the job for a bit of shopping. (You can get a Chieftain for less, but it's harder to find the right size parking space).

[slowsider]

Just wondering if the Socialist Worker's printing presses are busy making placards for the 'Stop the War' march that they never fail to organise at the drop of a hat.

Oh wait. Hang on...are they bankrolled by Vlad?

Thought the main political movers and shakers sponsored by Putin was the Conservatives this time round?
Hense the lukewarm economic sanctions.

If you believe the conspiracy theories then Trump was sponsored by Putin and Biden is sponsored by the Chinese, there is a lot more credibility in the latter theory, but I'm not sure either is entirely correct.

What is 100% documented fact is the amount of support from Russia (and formerly the USSR) for socialist/communist politicians in the UK.
If you vote Labour in the UK then be aware that Russia has had a lot to do with shaping the party and the people in it.

From less than 2 years ago...

'The Conservative Party’s finances came under renewed scrutiny last night as it emerged that two of its MPs on the intelligence watchdog committee and 14 ministers had accepted donations linked to Russia.'
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cons ... -2hm5jhwpx

[Asian Boss]

If you vote Labour in the UK then be aware that Russia has had a lot to do with shaping the party and the people in it.

That was a Russia of many years ago, not the dictator we see acting like a spoilt child currently; and who also has strong links to funding the current Conservative Party.

[Asian Boss]

Time to call legitimate things fake news and point at the shoes again? Look at her shoes!

[Phoenix]

“BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union’s chief executive says the 27-nation bloc will close its airspace to Russian airlines, fund supplies of weapons to Ukraine and ban some pro-Kremlin media outlets in response to Russia’s invasion.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday that “for the first time ever, the European Union will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack.”

Von der Leyen added that “we are shutting down the EU airspace for Russians. We are proposing a prohibition on all Russian-owned, Russian registered or Russian-controlled aircraft. These aircraft will no more be able to land in, take off or overfly the territory of the EU.”

She said also the EU will ban “the Kremlin’s media machine. The state-owned Russia Today and Sputnik, as well as their subsidiaries, will no longer be able to spread their lies to justify Putin’s war and to sow division in our union.”

Von der Leyen added that the EU will also target Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko for supporting Russia’s widespread military campaign in Ukraine.

“We will hit Lukashenko’s regime with a new package of sanctions,” she said.”

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... ee9c070ea5

About time they hit the Belarusian comb over dictator.

[KungFooBob]

God damn it, they reckon the Russian have destroyed the Mriya

[JackyJoll]

I want a tank!

Tanks-alot.co.uk have a T34/85 Main Battle Tank for sale at the moment. A snip at £120k. Doesn't say if it has an MoT. Just the job for a bit of shopping. (You can get a Chieftain for less, but it's harder to find the right size parking space).

The young me, with the old me’s resources might have bought that.

[demographic]

So we've let hundreds of oligarchs into Londongrad with the so called "Golden Visa scheme" and a couple of million has gone into Conservative party donations we're supposed to ignore the obvious conflict of interest?

Riiight.

[JackyJoll]

I suppose Putin can eventually prevail in Ukraine, but has he just shown the whole World that his army is shit?