Is Russia just about to invade Ukraine?

[Hoonercat]

It'll be ok. Putin has asked Ukraine's military to lay down their arms as he has no intention of occupying their country. A bit like how he had no intention of invading their country.

[Taipan]

Should have left Trump in power. Not on his watch...

[Mussels]

It'll be ok. Putin has asked Ukraine's military to lay down their arms as he has no intention of occupying their country. A bit like how he had no intention of invading their country.

He probably doesn't intend to occupy it after he's changed the government to one he approves of.
Can't think where I've seen that trick before.

[Nordboy]

Oh well, I was very wrong unfortunately !! Putin has called the West's bluff and left them holding their dicks in their hands waving them furiously at Russia!

Don't see that there's anything the West can do? Putin's played a bit of a blinder!

[gremlin]

This is 2022. Money is worth more than military, but it depends on how hard hit western interests are by proper sanctions as to how they'll be applied. Withdrawing Russia from SWIFT would be a major move, as they did with Iran a few years back. Ironically, Iran then set up a bilateral financial settlement system with...you guessed it. Russia!

[Supermofo]

So I've seen Russian troops and tanks flooding through the border and rockets exploding but no actual fighting. Given that Ukraine were saying they would arm everyone and fight to the last I presume their army was on the borders. So have they given up and not fighting back or are we just not seeing it yet?

[Cousin Jack]

This is 2022. Money is worth more than military, but it depends on how hard hit western interests are by proper sanctions as to how they'll be applied. Withdrawing Russia from SWIFT would be a major move, as they did with Iran a few years back. Ironically, Iran then set up a bilateral financial settlement system with...you guessed it. Russia!

Proper sanctions would confiscate all Russian assets in the west, and ban all transactions with Russia, and any other state that traded with Russia. That would cripple Russia.

Unfortunately western economies would grind to a halt first.

[Hoonercat]

I doubt it. By the time you finish reading this, it will be all over.

I wouldn't bet on that. The Ukraine military is far more modern and organised than it was when Russia last visited. They have a sizeable number of Turkish TB2 drones which, if the reports are to be believed, were devastaing against Russian tanks in the Armenia - Azerbaijan war (assuming Russia hasn't already destroyed them on the ground). And while the number of Russian tanks outnumber those of Ukraine, it's not a colossal difference (Russia still has to defend the rest of its huge border so cannot commit all of its military). Ukraine has also built a series of defences in the past few years so it's artillery will be dug in, though whether they've managed to mobilize in time may be the deciding factor. It was only 2 days ago that the Ukrainian leader (who is apparently a Nazi, despite being Jewish ) said there was no need for full military mobilization.

Russia will have full control of Ukraine and anyone in the country who resists will be labelled a "terrorist" and disappear.

No doubt there's a few Eastern Ukraines wishing they'd taken up the offer of a Russian passport, it might make all the difference to their lives when Russian soldiers are walking through their streets. Approx 82% of them didn't want Russian citizenship, but Putin still felt it ok to recognise them as independent from Ukraine

Russia: wins.

Putin wins might be more precise. He's presenting himself to the Russian people as a liberator (oh, the irony) and defender, rather, than the invader that he is. He'll leave behind a legacy that might even match that wonderful chap Stalin, who is adored in Russia. But Russia won't 'win', its economy will be hit hard, particularly if Europe turns further to the US for gas (which is cheaper than Russian gas) and it will find itself being ever more dependent on China, not a good position to be in IMHO. Xi Jinping is going to love having Putin as his bitch

[Hoonercat]

It'll be ok. Putin has asked Ukraine's military to lay down their arms as he has no intention of occupying their country. A bit like how he had no intention of invading their country.

He probably doesn't intend to occupy it after he's changed the government to one he approves of.
Can't think where I've seen that trick before.

It didn't work out so well last time Ukraine had a pro-Russian leader back in 2014.

[Hoonercat]

So I've seen Russian troops and tanks flooding through the border and rockets exploding but no actual fighting. Given that Ukraine were saying they would arm everyone and fight to the last I presume their army was on the borders. So have they given up and not fighting back or are we just not seeing it yet?

The Ukraine president, 2 days ago while being urged to mobilize:

Regarding security and defense. Today there is no need for general mobilization. We need to promptly replenish the Ukrainian army and other military formations

Doesn't bode well. That being said, the border with Russia is indefensible. Due to it's huge size and the terrain being completely open and flat, Ukraine forces would be spread too thinly to mount any kind of defence and find themselves being quickly flanked. I imagine there will stragetic fortified points away from the border where the defence will begin.

[Mussels]

I guess this is where we find out if Ukranians do hate Russians as much as we're told or it turns into another Taliban advance.

[Hoonercat]

It'll be ok. Putin has asked Ukraine's military to lay down their arms as he has no intention of occupying their country. A bit like how he had no intention of invading their country.

He probably doesn't intend to occupy it after he's changed the government to one he approves of.
Can't think where I've seen that trick before.

I think that if he carries out a full invasion, he'll break Ukraine up into federal states. There will still be a central govt, and there will still be a Ukraine, but the power of central govt will be reduced and each state will have a veto on joining the EU or NATO. He knows the people of Ukraine will not accept a Russian puppet as president and will revolt as soon as Russian forces leave, going the federal route with veto means he only needs a puppet in one part of the country.

[Yambo]

My Ukrainian friend is in Dnepr (his spelling and he probably means Dnipro) and tells me that "The city itself was not attacked. The streets are free and calm. İt is said the airport and most of military infrastructure is destroyed, but I do not know for sure."

The incursion may well be limited currently with the main attacks on the military infrastructure to weaken Ukrainian resolve and prevent serious warfare. Russia probably can't afford a protracted scheme so get in quick, damage the military so it can't respond adequately and then claim Ukraine is Russian and the job's a good 'un.

Not sure that'll be how it pans out but Putin will look good at home and he'll weather the sanctions as they won't be for long - he has energy supplies that the West needs.

[DEADPOOL]

No offence, but this is childish. The US has a new president, get over it.

Russia thinks it can start invading countries because yay the great military mastermind Trump is out the way? Yeah I've been so worried about that too.

Wrong.

[DEADPOOL]

Yeah this is just nonsensical now.

Do you have any proof or is it all from YouTube as global media is conspiring to block it?

Censorship is rampant now. This new age brings more authoritarian powers which once established, will persist. Like freezing bank accounts if you dare protest at a government decree. PayPal are in on it too now. And the banks of course. It’s all going a bit Pete Tong.

One of these days you’ll stop laughing at “conspiracy theories” and wonder why you couldn’t see the obvious when it was laid out in front of you.

[DEADPOOL]

I'm still bemused why he cares so much as he's UK based.

Next time you fill up your tank, you might want to have a think about that.

[Yorick]

Oh great. He's back.

[DEADPOOL]

Why are you engaging in a discussion on a forum then fella ? You can't just throw random thoughts out and not expect someone to comment... Otherwise it's just a bulletin board then not a discussion forum.

I think Russia are just about to invade Ukraine and I also think the timing is coincident with a weak USA. Likewise Taiwan.

Even if you want to insist those are the random thoughts of a suspected madman, I would still prefer to be answered or put right rather than lobotomised just so that I can "fit in".

<sigh>

[DEADPOOL]

Well I am also confused as to why everyone appears to want to discuss DEADPOOL rather than the issues raised.

Because you're a few sandwiches short of a picnic

I appear to have a firmer grasp of international politics than you.

The whole woke world appears to have been on holiday while Putin (and Ping) have been busy planning how to undermine the Western world.

Hope you had a nice picnic. It’s over now.

[DEADPOOL]

Well if Radio 4s coverage is right the Russian troops have been ordered back to their bases and away from the Ukranian border.
So by the looks of it, just Putin doing some sabre rattling.

Nope.