Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Mussels]

It doesn't look like he wants to invade so any bets on what he's after? I think it's just international recognition that the regions they have already captured are legitimate bits of Russia. He just needed to go in with a rediculous demand so everyone can call it a win when he comes out of it with less.

[Hoonercat]

It doesn't look like he wants to invade so any bets on what he's after? I think it's just international recognition that the regions they have already captured are legitimate bits of Russia. He just needed to go in with a rediculous demand so everyone can call it a win when he comes out of it with less.

He's full of ridiculous demands. Below is a statement from Sergey Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, made late January.

We are talking about the withdrawal of foreign forces, equipment and weapons and other steps in order to return to the configuration as of 1997 on the territory of countries that were not members of NATO on the specified date.

That would include the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania (?). Russia wants eastern Europe, some of which is now in the EU, to give up a huge part of their defence, while having a massive Russian military presence parked outside Ukraine.

[Count Steer]

It doesn't look like he wants to invade so any bets on what he's after? I think it's just international recognition that the regions they have already captured are legitimate bits of Russia. He just needed to go in with a rediculous demand so everyone can call it a win when he comes out of it with less.

He's full of ridiculous demands. Below is a statement from Sergey Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, made late January.

We are talking about the withdrawal of foreign forces, equipment and weapons and other steps in order to return to the configuration as of 1997 on the territory of countries that were not members of NATO on the specified date.

That would include the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania (?). Russia wants eastern Europe, some of which is now in the EU, to give up a huge part of their defence, while having a massive Russian military presence parked outside Ukraine.

It would have been interesting if he'd started with East Germany.

[Mr. Dazzle]

If he really wanted to take the piss he should capture Gibraltar and then refuse to give it back to the Spaniards, or annex Northern Ireland

Free Berwick-Upon-Tweed!

In other news, Flight Radar 24 has some mildly fascinating stuff going on. There was a US drone flying up and down the Ukraine/Russian border for the last 12 hour but it's on it's way home now. There was also a B-52 from Brize Norton that got as far as Poland before changing its mind...

https://www.flightradar24.com/TYSON11/2ae45a0e

https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE11/2ae24bf7

[rusty]

If he really wanted to take the piss he should capture Gibraltar and then refuse to give it back to the Spaniards, or annex Northern Ireland

Free Berwick-Upon-Tweed!

In other news, Flight Radar 24 has some mildly fascinating stuff going on. There was a US drone flying up and down the Ukraine/Russian border for the last 12 hour but it's on it's way home now. There was also a B-52 from Brize Norton that got as far as Poland before changing its mind...

https://www.flightradar24.com/TYSON11/2ae45a0e

https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE11/2ae24bf7

It's worth looking on ADS-B Exchange as well, it's usually got more of the military stuff other and you can filter out the commercial flights as well.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com

[demographic]

Free Berwick-Upon-Tweed!

I'd hope so cos I wouldn't pay much for it.

[slowsider]

It doesn't look like he wants to invade so any bets on what he's after? I think it's just international recognition that the regions they have already captured are legitimate bits of Russia. He just needed to go in with a rediculous demand so everyone can call it a win when he comes out of it with less.

He's full of ridiculous demands. Below is a statement from Sergey Lavrov, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, made late January.

We are talking about the withdrawal of foreign forces, equipment and weapons and other steps in order to return to the configuration as of 1997 on the territory of countries that were not members of NATO on the specified date.

That would include the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania (?). Russia wants eastern Europe, some of which is now in the EU, to give up a huge part of their defence, while having a massive Russian military presence parked outside Ukraine.

It would have been interesting if he'd started with East Germany.

Hard to park tanks on the border there without pissing off the Poles.

[Count Steer]

It would have been interesting if he'd started with East Germany.

Hard to park tanks on the border there without pissing off the Poles.

Exactly! The man lacks ambition.

[Hoonercat]

That would include the Czech Republic, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria and Romania (?). Russia wants eastern Europe, some of which is now in the EU, to give up a huge part of their defence, while having a massive Russian military presence parked outside Ukraine.

Or flip that on it's head and Putin has the arse because of a massive NATO military presence always parked just outside Russia.

Only 6% of Russia's land border is shared with NATO members. There are 4 NATO battalions in Eastern Europe, comprising about 5,000 troops, and they were sent there as a response to Russia invading Ukraine in 2014. Prior to that there were no NATO troops deployed in Eastern Europe.

[irie]

Looks like Putin is following this playbook.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

July 12, 2021 17:00

During the recent Direct Line, when I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people – a single whole. These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe.

Next will be Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Then perhaps also Finland, a continual thorn in Russia's side.

[KungFooBob]

I dunno, I've been to Latvia and Lithuania a few times, they hates the Russian's. The Baltic Way kind of proved it.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

If he really wanted to take the piss he should capture Gibraltar and then refuse to give it back to the Spaniards, or annex Northern Ireland

Free Berwick-Upon-Tweed!

In other news, Flight Radar 24 has some mildly fascinating stuff going on. There was a US drone flying up and down the Ukraine/Russian border for the last 12 hour but it's on it's way home now. There was also a B-52 from Brize Norton that got as far as Poland before changing its mind...

https://www.flightradar24.com/TYSON11/2ae45a0e

https://www.flightradar24.com/FORTE11/2ae24bf7

A B-52? was it singing Love Shack or Rock Lobster?

[Hoonercat]

Looks like Putin is following this playbook.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

July 12, 2021 17:00

During the recent Direct Line, when I was asked about Russian-Ukrainian relations, I said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people – a single whole. These words were not driven by some short-term considerations or prompted by the current political context. It is what I have said on numerous occasions and what I firmly believe.

Next will be Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Then perhaps also Finland, a continual thorn in Russia's side.

Along with the same playbook he used in Georgia, declaring a couple of reasons as independent before moving Russian troops into the regions as 'peacekeepers'.

Russia's Vladimir Putin says he is recognising breakaway rebel regions in Ukraine's east as independent states.
The self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are home to Russia-backed rebels who have been fighting Ukrainian forces since 2014.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60468237

[Cousin Jack]

Next stop ? Poland? Estonia? Latvia? Lithuania?

[Bigyin]

I read something about 75% of the conventional Russian Army is now deployed along the Ukrainian borders on 3 flanks.

If it isnt there to be used then he has weakened the entire Russian position along all of the motherlands other borders massively for the sake of posturing.

Thanks to the joys of the internet both sides take on the position can be accessed.

The west says Putin is trying to annex the separatist regions one at a time to "defend" the occupants against Ukrainian aggression. Problem with that is only half each region are separatist controlled by Russian backed rebels/troops/politicians. Its a small part in a big game to stop former Soviet states moving westward

Russia says they are responding to attacks by Ukraine on regions that want to be Russian to any action by them will be in self defence of that population to rejoin the motherland

At least he waited till the winter Olympics was over so he didnt fuck off the Chinese and doesnt have to worry about maintaining the usual troop levels on that border

[MingtheMerciless]

Winnie the Poo told him to wait until after the Olympics.

[irie]

It's on my list of things to watch, although I became aware of it initially only through reading a heavily criticising review of it for the angle it took that ignored a lot of stuff.

The narrative on your side of the planet that the west equals good, whilst Russia equals bad, is so well accepted that it doesn't ever occur to most people that they're as heavily brainwashed as anyone on the other side.

Potter, to make these sorts of judgements you must be unaware of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances and the 1932-1933 Ukrainian Holodomor.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapes ... Assurances

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

I really cba to get into a 'who breached what' argument, just so you can keep your google finger busy.
The west annexed all sorts of places in breach of all sorts of things, an argument on the invasion of Iraq and the millions subsequently killed in the wests "War on Terror" would keep you busy for months.

I only know one bloke from Ukraine, he's pro-Russian.
I know lots of other people from all sorts of places, none are pro-American foreign policy.

Just irrelevant bits of paper aren't they iccy, just like the 2014 Minsk Agreement which has just gone down the toilet. Might makes right and sod the millions of blighted lives, who "cba" eh?

ps - applies regardless of the offending party, eg US, Russia, China, UK, France, ...

[irie]

I meant I couldn't be arsed getting into a petty squabble with you and waiting the usual 48hrs between your replies so you can read about stuff on google and then regurgitate it here.

Let's see if Putin goes after all the former USSR countries as you have predicted.

I have mentioned before that I have dual British/Canadian citizenship, and guess what? Every November there is a Ukrainian Holomodor Remembrance Day in Canada.

In any case, it's moderately amusing, but not unexpected, that you believe that knowledge that you do not have can only be discovered by others using Google after you pose questions/make assertions.

[Hoonercat]

I've believed from the start that Russia wanted to beef up its presence in eastern Ukraine in order to make its access to the Black Sea (its only warm water ports) more secure, using Ukraine and NATO as a pretext. Given the proximity of the Caspian Sea to the east, the area could potentially be quickly cut off from the rest of Russia in a conflict, which would leave Russia unable to supply Crimea with military and provisions. But having read his speech last night where he speaks of Ukraine as not being a true nation, but a part of Russia, he may have bigger ambitions. But it's Putin, overstating his ambition could equally be a ploy to make the taking a small part of Ukraine for Russia appear to be the lesser of two evils.

[Hoonercat]

Next stop ? Poland? Estonia? Latvia? Lithuania?

I doubt there'll be a next stop, but if so then I would bet on a revisit to Georgia. Far enough away from Europe for no one to give a shit, too close to the middle east for America to feel comfortable sending troops and not a member of NATO. It also opens up the middle east to further Russian infuence (particularly Iran) and expands Russian access to the Black Sea. Turkey may not be too pleased to find itself sharing a land border with Russia though.