slowsider wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:05 am
Who'd a thunk that UK uses Algerian gas ...
Prolly LNG. Memory says we get some from Egypt too which seems odder. Will have to check.
Edit: Just to add more murkiness into why this is happening, the shortfall in gas would be made up, to a large extent by the USA selling LNG to replace it. They can probably sell it all now, but they'd probably prefer to sell (at the same price) to Germany etc, rather than to China.
Doubt is not a pleasant condition.
But certainty is an absurd one.
Voltaire
slowsider wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:05 am
Who'd a thunk that UK uses Algerian gas ...
Yes, you get a faint whiff of Turmeric when it comes out of the pipe
Chapeau!
"Of all the stories you told me, which ones were true and which ones weren't?"
"My dear Doctor, they're all true."
"Even the lies?"
"Especially the lies."
Phoenix wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:56 pmI voted No.
I originally voted Yes, but on balance I now don't think he will because every day new cards are being stacked up against him. If he doesn't invade in the next couple of weeks I think to save face he'll leave his troops on the border and try to covertly subvert Ukrainian politics. It's worth remembering that Russian GDP is barely more than Spain's.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
There are reports that Russia will invade Ukraine on Wednesday. Weather forecasts would support the view that this is probably the latest Putin can leave it before the weather warms up and Russian vehicles face getting stuck in the infamous Ukrainian mud.
IMG_20220212_090648.jpg (686.01 KiB) Viewed 681 times
Here's a forecast for Kaniv, a key border crossing route southeast of Kyiv:
IMG_20220212_103856.jpg (556.19 KiB) Viewed 681 times
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is in Kviv today and in Moscow tomorrow. Assuming that Russia does not invade Ukraine while either of these visits are taking place, given the weather forecast (above) that probably leaves only Wednesday before night-time temperatures rise and the ground becomes an impassable quagmire for heavy vehicles.
It seems to me that these visits effectively delay Russia from invading until the weather window closes. Are there are diplomatic visits to Moscow due on Wednesday, I haven't heard of any?
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
I don't think they'll invade, can't afford to. It's just Putin doing some posturing, trying to show that they're still a so called world power. Even though, these days, they're not really.
Nordboy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:06 am
I don't think they'll invade, can't afford to. It's just Putin doing some posturing, trying to show that they're still a so called world power. Even though, these days, they're not really.
Russia can't afford to keep 130,000+ troops with heavy armour and logistics support on the border indefinitely either, so sooner or later they'll have to be withdrawn with a massive loss of face for Putin. As a result I wouldn't be surprised to see increasing amounts of Russian gas diverted to the east (China) thus starving continental Europe of energy.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Olaf Scholz is a powerless puppet whose strings are pulled in different directions by the tripartite coalition partners, the Social Democrats, Greens and the Free Democrats. Rather than going to Moscow the best thing he can do is wait in Berlin for the lights to go out.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Nordboy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 11:06 am
I don't think they'll invade, can't afford to. It's just Putin doing some posturing, trying to show that they're still a so called world power. Even though, these days, they're not really.
As a result I wouldn't be surprised to see increasing amounts of Russian gas diverted to the east (China) thus starving continental Europe of energy.
16.5 billion cubic meters of gas supplied to China in 2021, 175 billion cubic meters of gas supplied to Europe. They'll need an awful lot of tankers to 'starve' Europe, given that there is only one pipeline from Russia to China
Doesn't make alot of sense to starve your biggest customer, especially when your own citizens are dependant on Gazprom remaining solvent.
Hoonercat wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 9:33 pm
16.5 billion cubic meters of gas supplied to China in 2021, 175 billion cubic meters of gas supplied to Europe. They'll need an awful lot of tankers to 'starve' Europe, given that there is only one pipeline from Russia to China
Doesn't make alot of sense to starve your biggest customer, especially when your own citizens are dependant on Gazprom remaining solvent.
I don't know much about it, so I can't offer any sort of insightful comment, but I wonder if he is committed enough to turn the tap off and wait.
Sooner or later someone will want that gas, it's not like it will ever be worthless, it's just whether he can wait it out.
I can't see that happening, but then again it's Putin so who nows? Russia recently signed an agreement with China to supply an extra 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, but it requires a new pipeline which could be years away, and even then goes nowhere near matching exports to Europe. The Russian economy is proving pretty resilient to sanctions, but that's largely down to its energy exports and the high cost of gas, as well as a boost from the lifting of Covid restrictions in the first six months of 2021. The forecast for the next 2 years isn't great, IMHO shutting the tap to Europe could see Russia enter a deep recession (from memory, European energy exports make up 10-15% of the Russian economy, depending on demand and price).
I just dont see Russia potentially ruining its economy by shutting off the taps to Europe, when its argument is with NATO which is primarily driven by the US.
1. Putin has underestimated the array of potential measures (both military and economic) which the West can take against him in the event of invading Ukraine
2. He has missed his weather invasion window.
In other words, he's fucked up.
It's anyone's guess what this psychopath does next.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Hoonercat wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 8:50 am
IMHO shutting the tap to Europe could see Russia enter a deep recession (from memory, European energy exports make up 10-15% of the Russian economy, depending on demand and price).
I just dont see Russia potentially ruining its economy by shutting off the taps to Europe,
That. Why would Russia self-inflict an equivalent result to the sanctions the US threatens to apply ?
irie wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 9:04 am
To me it looks like:
1. Putin has underestimated the array of potential measures (both military and economic) which the West can take against him in the event of invading Ukraine
2. He has missed his weather invasion window.
In other words, he's fucked up.
It's anyone's guess what this psychopath does next.
Potter wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:36 am
I don't know if western media makes him out to be a psycho, he's not viewed like that here. In my experience of working globally, Russia has a fairly light touch on most foreign nations (current exceptions excluded of course) but the west is in your face anywhere you go trying to assert it's dominance.
Russia's sphere of influence is pretty local (though on a huge scale) and is mainly to its south and south east. It is a light touch as long as those nations remain under its influence (and is happy to send in 'peacekeeping' troops to dampen any civil uprisings). It can't tolerate having western-facing democracies on its borders, as both Georgia and Ukraine have discovered.
It's not just NATO on its borders that Putin fears. The more 'westernised' Ukraine becomes, the more the standard of living increases, the more infrastructure improves, the more freedoms the people of Ukraine enjoy, the more their perceived happiness increases, the more the potential for instability within Russia increases, especially in the regions bordering Ukraine.
Potter wrote: ↑Tue Feb 15, 2022 10:36 am
I don't know if western media makes him out to be a psycho, he's not viewed like that here. In my experience of working globally, Russia has a fairly light touch on most foreign nations (current exceptions excluded of course) but the west is in your face anywhere you go trying to assert it's dominance.
Russia's sphere of influence is pretty local (though on a huge scale) and is mainly to its south and south east. It is a light touch as long as those nations remain under its influence (and is happy to send in 'peacekeeping' troops to dampen any civil uprisings). It can't tolerate having western-facing democracies on its borders, as both Georgia and Ukraine have discovered.
It's not just NATO on its borders that Putin fears. The more 'westernised' Ukraine becomes, the more the standard of living increases, the more infrastructure improves, the more freedoms the people of Ukraine enjoy, the more their perceived happiness increases, the more the potential for instability within Russia increases, especially in the regions bordering Ukraine.
That about sums it up. Putin is not really interested in the Colonial status of Russia - besides which , he would have to rub up again China and Xi for that - and he is bright enough to realise that wouldn't end well. The Chinese have colonised most of East Africa and SEA is some way or another via funding.
What he does want is the empire around him back - ideally the old Soviet states would suit him well. Ukraine is has fertile land, and a geography he wants. And the EU have been meddling there for years - however the blame has now been shifted to NATO. the recent civil unrest was directly as a result if the EU trying to court the Ukraine into the European block.
The average man on the streets in Moscow will know very little about the military build up and will have ben sold it as aggression by the West
