Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[Mr. Dazzle]

It will happen - straight after the Winter Olympics have finished / or Sue Gray's report has come out

TBF Putin invaded the first time round just after the Sochi winter Olympics.

[ogri]

Need something to reduce over population, seeing as the 'virus' did not work

[MingtheMerciless]

Whatdyareckon?

You need a hobby ??

ps - just bought an e-bike mtb so gone to the dark side.

CHEAT!

[irie]

You need a hobby ??

ps - just bought an e-bike mtb so gone to the dark side.

CHEAT!

More challenging/interesting downhills means having to pedal up steeper hills then when I run out of puff having to push the bike. So on balance I'm happy to have e-assist on the way up and a heavier bike on the way down.

[MingtheMerciless]

ps - just bought an e-bike mtb so gone to the dark side.

CHEAT!

More challenging/interesting downhills means having to pedal up steeper hills then when I run out of puff having to push the bike. So on balance I'm happy to have e-assist on the way up and a heavier bike on the way down.

I'm very tempted with a new Levo......(but apparently we need a new car first).

Back on topic, will he invade?

You can only perform exercises for so long on the border before you start running into wear and tear and fatigue issues, especially as it's winter at the moment. The longer you keep exercising the more chance of an incident with the Ukrainians sparking conflict. The other thing to consider is that once spring comes and the ground softens it'll be harder to invade.

Invading is one thing, holding territory that is full of people that hate you is another........... and then there's the sanctions, cyber strikes etc

So I think it'll be sooner rather than later and probably just to solidify the Crimea borders and access.

Whilst all this is going on, Winnie the Poo will be analysing the West's response and revising the Taiwan options.

[irie]

CHEAT!

More challenging/interesting downhills means having to pedal up steeper hills then when I run out of puff having to push the bike. So on balance I'm happy to have e-assist on the way up and a heavier bike on the way down.

I'm very tempted with a new Levo......(but apparently we need a new car first).

Back on topic, will he invade?

You can only perform exercises for so long on the border before you start running into wear and tear and fatigue issues, especially as it's winter at the moment. The longer you keep exercising the more chance of an incident with the Ukrainians sparking conflict. The other thing to consider is that once spring comes and the ground softens it'll be harder to invade.

Invading is one thing, holding territory that is full of people that hate you is another........... and then there's the sanctions, cyber strikes etc

So I think it'll be sooner rather than later and probably just to solidify the Crimea borders and access.

Whilst all this is going on, Winnie the Poo will be analysing the West's response and revising the Taiwan options.

Agree with you.

A large chunk of Ukraine is already effectively under Russian control. Putin will install a puppet government loyal to Russia for whatever this new buffer 'state' is called.

Edit: insert Wiki map.

[irie]

I could well be wrong, but it does seem to me that the mounting cost of invading Ukraine may force Putin to back off, and in doing so suffer a devastating loss of face.

[demographic]

Just imagine if the west had some levers to pull which might directly affect Putins finances and encourage him to settle his head.
Maybe some piece of legislation specifically designed for the purpose.

I'd imagine our politicians would have to be pretty stupid not to use something like that.
<Whistles>

[KungFooBob]

[MingtheMerciless]

Looks like Russia will be attacking on at least two fronts and is moving stuff from staging posts closer to the front. Also 6 large troop transports were seen on flight radar heading for Moscow and Belarus from the middle of Russia, part of keep em guessing as they could of just turned their transponders off.

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/07/euro ... index.html
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/06/euro ... index.html

[irie]

"If Russia invades - that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again - then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,"

Does look like the odds are stacking against Putin ...

[Yambo]

"If Russia invades - that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again - then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,"

Does look like the odds are stacking against Putin ...

Nord Stream 2 is just a tad reminiscent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact.

Maybe Germany will prefer the gas to being in NATO.

[Horse]

Just imagine if the west had some levers to pull which might directly affect Putins finances and encourage him to settle his head.
Maybe some piece of legislation specifically designed for the purpose.

I'd imagine our politicians would have to be pretty stupid not to use something like that.
<Whistles>

You mean like enacting something that financially affects the Putin-friendly oligarchs?

Like was in the news a week ago

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... ar-latest/

[Horse]

Contrary, no full invasion, view:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/03/ru ... wanted-to/

Yet any discussion of potential Russian action toward Ukraine needs to take into account the resources available to the Russian state, and the history of previous Russian, Soviet, and other great-power military occupations. And here the picture becomes less clear cut than a lot of speculation over the potential occupation of Ukraine acknowledges.

A vast move to seize and hold large cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa, would require enough troops to destroy the Ukrainian army, crush a potential insurgency and back up any permanent security force that can be recruited from local collaborators or hired from outside Ukraine. Kyiv alone has a population of 3 million in a dense urban landscape, while Kharkiv has 1.5 million and Odessa has 1 million. Smaller cities east of the Dnieper River, such as Dnipro or Zaporizhya, have populations in the hundreds of thousands. If Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region occupied by Russia are removed, the population of Ukraine as a whole is still officially 41 million, though recent estimates by the national statistical service that take mass migration into account now place it at 37 million.

[Hoonercat]

Contrary, no full invasion, view:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/03/ru ... wanted-to/

Yet any discussion of potential Russian action toward Ukraine needs to take into account the resources available to the Russian state, and the history of previous Russian, Soviet, and other great-power military occupations. And here the picture becomes less clear cut than a lot of speculation over the potential occupation of Ukraine acknowledges.

A vast move to seize and hold large cities, including Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odessa, would require enough troops to destroy the Ukrainian army, crush a potential insurgency and back up any permanent security force that can be recruited from local collaborators or hired from outside Ukraine. Kyiv alone has a population of 3 million in a dense urban landscape, while Kharkiv has 1.5 million and Odessa has 1 million. Smaller cities east of the Dnieper River, such as Dnipro or Zaporizhya, have populations in the hundreds of thousands. If Crimea and the parts of the Donbas region occupied by Russia are removed, the population of Ukraine as a whole is still officially 41 million, though recent estimates by the national statistical service that take mass migration into account now place it at 37 million.

As I mentioned earlier, I can't see a full-scale invasion happening, more of a quick land-grab to send a clear message to the West. Let's not forget that in April 2008, NATO agreed to allow Russia's southern neighbour Georgia to join. 4 months later Russia invaded, under the pretext of supporting Georgian separatists (sounds familiar?). 13 years on, despite meeting all the requirements, Georgia still hasn't been allowed to join the club.
Also worth mentioning that the same summit in April 2008 saw NATO also agreeing to allowing Ukraine to join, yet 13 years later they are no closer. It makes me question why Putin has chosen now to make such an issue of it. It's quite possible that he is using it as a pretext in order to stengthen Russian links to the Black Sea access, as its hold on the Black Sea is very vulnerable should NATO ever expand into Ukraine (due to the geography) and the area is extremely important for the Russian economy.

Just read in the last hour that Russia are sending 6 warships to the Black Sea for drills. That's pretty ominous, considering that analysts have suggested a successful assault would require sea support.

[irie]

Macron's meeting with Putin in Moscow didn't go swimmingly well!

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimi ... n-ukraine/

Defiant Putin mauls Macron in Moscow

Russian president fires both barrels at NATO alliance, while Macron notes diplomacy with Russia carries ‘an element of ingratitude.’

After more than five hours of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, there was little doubt Emmanuel Macron walked into the grizzly bear’s den — and he got mauled.

With more than 100,000 Russian troops and heavy weapons massed on the Ukrainian border, the French president and his advisers had insisted that, among Western leaders, Macron was uniquely positioned to convince Putin to follow a path of de-escalation.

Instead, Putin chose the path of defiance, declaring that Crimea is Russia and that if Ukraine joined NATO, European countries would “automatically” be at war with Russia. Jabbing a finger in the air at a French reporter, he said that “Russia is a military superpower and a nuclear superpower” and warned: “There will be no winners and you will be drawn into this conflict against your own will.”

Oops

[MingtheMerciless]

So Macron's been to see the evil Dictator and he's pledged no new escalation, remind anyone of Chamberlain going to see Hitler?

On R4 they've just been talking to some military journalist, apparently Russian reserves are being called up and the logistical support forces are being deployed (pipeline troops) and blood banks are being moved closer to the front line.

[irie]

So Macron's been to see the evil Dictator and he's pledged no new escalation, remind anyone of Chamberlain going to see Hitler?

On R4 they've just been talking to some military journalist, apparently Russian reserves are being called up and the logistical support forces are being deployed (pipeline troops) and blood banks are being moved closer to the front line.

If Russia does invade Ukraine and this happens ...

"If Russia invades - that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine, again - then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,"

... then existing Russian gas flows will also be cut off thus the lights will go out in much of continental Europe:

Europe is dependent on Russian gas.jpg (294.93 KiB) Viewed 470 times

[slowsider]

Who'd a thunk that UK uses Algerian gas ...

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

Who'd a thunk that UK uses Algerian gas ...

Yes, you get a faint whiff of Turmeric when it comes out of the pipe