Inflation

[Count Steer]

It's all gonna be moot when the self driving cars commanded by Amazon Alexas which have gained sentience take over.

Once they have, they'll all want nice houses, Omegas, private transporter jets and start bitchin' on forums.

[Pirahna]

I'm not predicting a housing crash btw, I don't know how that's sneaked in the conversation

Some bloke called Potter mentioned the housing market in a post yesterday.

[Mr. Dazzle]

However, I don't think houses will fall because of people scrambling to sell them, the people that bought this time mostly haven't overextended themselves and can afford to sit on them - I think the reverse will happen, it will hurt the market because debt will be expensive, the economy is going to be bad and who will risk (or can afford) debt in that type of environment.
I think you'll struggle to sell houses @10% interest rates and that will drive the price down.

Honestly not sure if you're saying they won't fall, or they WILL fall but not for the reasons people think

[Count Steer]

1. In 25 years time when looked at overall...

I *think* that was the gist of Irenes point, and it's all very well looking at things over the long term, but if you're crippled in the short term then it won't be a fun ride.

These horrendous financial incidents rarely last that long in the grand scheme of things, it's a mess for a few quarters and then we're back on the wagon and the markets adapt, but if you're the bloke that has his pants pulled properly down over a couple of quarters, or you're the business owner that can't hold on for longer than that, then you're bolloxed.

Hence my point of 'if you can ride it out'. Also, trying to plan for what is likely and develop some contingency. Not always easy but the amount of debt some businesses, small and large, carry is alarming in an environment when interest rates look like rising.

Some people kid themselves that what will happen is what they want to happen and think that's a sound basis for prediction. I remember some people on the predecessor forums buying their first houses and, watching house prices rise, talk like there would never be a reversal and that the increase was like locked-in cash. Then 2008 came along. One of the problems of 2008 was that a lot of people, including many in the City, had only ever seen things move in one direction and hadn't prepared/didn't know how to deal with it. Similar things are happening with crypto now, lots fully invested, no contingency and no way of turning any sustained fall into an opportunity other than selling and buying on the way down and/or hoping to correctly call the bottom.

House prices might fall, they might not, but behaving as if they definitely won't isn't much of a strategy in the current circumstances.

(You know this stuff anyway so it's not really aimed at you).

But hey, I take a conservative/more cautious approach so won't become an overnight 'paper' squillionaire but I've settled for boring and staying solvent. If I'm wrong about markets etc I won't be queuing up at the soup kitchen, I'll be poorer than I could have been.

[Skub]

I'll be poorer than I could have been.

There are much worse ways to live your life than by that credo.

[irie]

In the long run what matters is how the UK economy performs in relation to other western economies, especially continental European. Service and digital economies such as the UK's are inherently more flexible and faster to adapt to change than manufacturing economies.

Thus to the contrary I do not share your pessimism about the future performance of the UK economy.

You have either missed the point or conveniently ignored it, well done.

I may have missed it, you rarely have a point and I don't see one this time either other than something about performance vs time, frankly I don't think you understand macro economics as much as you think you do.

This was my point.

[irie]

In the long run what matters is how the UK economy performs in relation to other western economies, especially continental European. Service and digital economies such as the UK's are inherently more flexible and faster to adapt to change than manufacturing economies.

Thus to the contrary I do not share your pessimism about the future performance of the UK economy.

I may have missed it, you rarely have a point and I don't see one this time either other than something about performance vs time, frankly I don't think you understand macro economics as much as you think you do.

This was my point.

To whom will it matter?

Oh, for example only to about 200m people in Western Europe, let alone other non-European members of, for example, the G7.

But hey, not you with your parochial views on your Dubai island.

[weeksy]

In early 2021 I called it at 4% when some said that was exaggerated, then I called it at 8% by summer 2022, when the Bank of England said 6% max.

The Bank of England forecast for inflation is saying a peak of 7.25% in April this year. This is a revised figure, higher than the forecasted peak of 6% inflation the BOE predicted in December.

In real terms it's 8%+ now.
0.5% interest isn't going to cut it.

well done

[weeksy]

well done

Very kind of you, but I knew I was right anyway, I just wanted to point out that I was right to the "I trust the Bank of England" characters

I get you, never underestimate how important 'winning' on the internet is

[irie]

Like I said, beyond a very high level discussion you don't understand what you're talking about and there isn't any point in arguing.
You stick with your 'long term view' and ignore the details over the next couple of years and you'll be fine

As ever your habitual MO is to dismiss what you either do not understand, or have no knowledge of, as being irrelevant.

[irie]

There's no point if I don't know what I'm talking about, is there?

[Count Steer]

Yeah that's what I said two weeks ago...

Like I said, beyond a very high level discussion you don't understand what you're talking about and there isn't any point in arguing.

You're a strange bloke you are. If you're going to argue then at least make sure you can back yourself up when you get called on it, otherwise you're just wasting peoples time.

[irie]

Yeah that's what I said two weeks ago...

Like I said, beyond a very high level discussion you don't understand what you're talking about and there isn't any point in arguing.

You're a strange bloke you are. If you're going to argue then at least make sure you can back yourself up when you get called on it, otherwise you're just wasting peoples time.

Evidently I'm a strange bloke who parrots what you've already said so there's no point in wasting your time repeating it, is there?

[Asian Boss]

There's only one way to resolve this like adults.

And that's to meet up in real life for a fight.

[irie]

There is no need for any unpleasantness, it's been resolved, he was called upon to perform but he's demonstrably flaccid, perhaps it's age.

An empty car pulled up to this thread, and Irie got out

Your bait becomes ever stinkier as you don't get the response you require to feed your ego.

[r1flyguy]

It’s getting like pissedonheads in here!

[weeksy]

It’s getting like pissedonheads in here!

Aye, sometimes it gets a little ridiculous. Luckily, not often and usually only in the politics section so mostly I ignore them.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

I find 35psi about right

[Yorick]

I find 35psi about right

It's free so get as much in as you can

[Cousin Jack]

Unless they raise interest rates by at least five more points this year then it's not going to get better, and even then it's only going to slow it.
I've had to hedge and if the bull run continues then it'll make up for inflation, but what an insane policy.

Not sure that is going to help much. Most of the inflation seems to be supply-side, so damping down consumer demand won't do much good, and will make things worse for many. Personally I would love Bank Rate to go up to about 10-12%, but I am not typical.