Will Russia invade the Ukraine?

[irie]

My guess is that Russia will try to annex Ukrainian land up to the Dnieper river thus linking up with the Crimean peninsula.

Whatdyareckon?

[Felix]

Whatdyareckon?

You need a hobby ??

[irie]

Whatdyareckon?

You need a hobby ??

Well let me see, I kitesurf whenever there's wind, ride a mountain bike on trails and downhills, look after my much younger wife.

Any suggestions of new hobbies welcome.

ps - just bought an e-bike mtb so gone to the dark side.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

Whatdyareckon?

You need a hobby ??

Well let me see, I kitesurf whenever there's wind, ride a mountain bike on trails and downhills, look after my much younger wife.

Any suggestions of new hobbies welcome.

ps - just bought an e-bike mtb so gone to the dark side.

Maybe you could try talking about motorbikes?

[JamJar]

Yes I think they will invade parts of Ukraine and annex them.

[irie]

You need a hobby ??

Well let me see, I kitesurf whenever there's wind, ride a mountain bike on trails and downhills, look after my much younger wife.

Any suggestions of new hobbies welcome.

ps - just bought an e-bike mtb so gone to the dark side.

Maybe you could try talking about motorbikes?

No longer ride on the roads, too much traffic and cars with drivers who do random things.

Raced in Bemsee for 10 years, done that. For obvious reasons track days don't float my boat (crotch rockets pass on the straights and in the UK you're not allowed to pass them on the brakes into corners).

Have 2 x Aprilia SXV550's in the garage (never been raced) and a SXV550 race bike in bits. They're going to be sold this year.

Plenty of SXV race and tuning parts to sell, some are rarer than hen's teeth such as a shortened swing arm and carbon fibre wheels. Even have a new 550 engine in parts but unable to find a new crankcase set for it.

Need garage space for new toys.

We now ride mountain bikes on the local trails and often in the New Forest which is about an hour from us. Times change, that's life.

[Le_Fromage_Grande]

So why are you on a motorcycle forum if you've no interest in motorcycles?

[irie]

So why are you on a motorcycle forum if you've no interest in motorcycles?

I am interested in motorcycles, but no longer ride them. Simples.

[irie]

This is very long, but an interesting read (for me anyway).

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

Looking at it from a Russian point of view, an expansion of the EU to encompass the Ukraine would look very threatening. Particularly given that (I think?) membership of NATO is a prequisite for joining the EU.

[Count Steer]

So why are you on a motorcycle forum if you've no interest in motorcycles?

People are often in the 'Current Affairs' or 'Cooking' or 'DIY' sections of a motorbike forum when they have no interest in them aren't they Cheesie? (Usually just to tell the world they have no interest in the section they're posting in).

There's also a very active bicycles section for those with no interest in motors...other than electric ones.

Re Ukraine. Looking back in Current Affairs, someone was asking the same sort of question 12 months ago. Tricky one. If the west applies some heavy duty sanctions and the general populus take the hit Putin has to convince them it's not his fault and get them onside with the 'it's big, bad America that has done this'. If there's a rise in the sentiment of 'Putin has brought this upon us' he'll be bricking himself. He controls the media/message but people will always find a way of getting information elsewhere.

[Mr. Dazzle]

It hasn't been "the Ukraine" since....well....a long time.

[slowsider]

No.

[Mr. Dazzle]

It hasn't been "the Ukraine" since....well....a long time.

In which case I guess my answer will have to be "no". Unless they've got a time machine.

[KungFooBob]

They kind of already have.

Remember Crimea?

[Mr. Dazzle]

They kind of already have.

Remember Crimea?

Ah so it was a trick question. D'oh.

[Yambo]

Russia will not invade Ukraine.

They will though, supply a whole load of military support to predominately Russian people in specific areas that are being threatened/attacked/oppressed by Ukraine.

[Skub]

I'm in the no camp.

[Hoonercat]

This is very long, but an interesting read (for me anyway).

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“

Looking at it from a Russian point of view, an expansion of the EU to encompass the Ukraine would look very threatening. Particularly given that (I think?) membership of NATO is a prequisite for joining the EU.

Interesting article.

And what Ukraine will be – it is up to its citizens to decide.

Says Putin, with 1/3 of the Russian army parked on its doorstep

I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia

...while demanding that Ukraine is never allowed to join NATO

[Hoonercat]

Putin knows western nations won't agree to his demands that Ukraine is never allowed to join NATO. I think there will be a compromise along the lines of severely restricting the number of personel/hardware in Ukraine should it ever join NATO. Failing that, I coud see Russia making small incursions to test the West's resolve. All the noise from the West appears to suggest that the level of sanctions will increase depending on the level of conflict, grabbing a piece of Ukraine and only incuring limited sanctions might be quite appealing to Putin if it increases his popularity in Russia, especially if he can use the pretext of Ukraine aggression against Russia as the reason.

[Mr Moofo]

It will happen - straight after the Winter Olympics have finished / or Sue Gray's report has come out