Potter wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:40 am
Any predictions?
The M2 money supply has gone off the chart, something like 25%+ in the last year, although the way it's being moved isn't at the same pace, so we haven't seen nutty inflation just yet. In short, loads more money floating about but it's not being pushed through peoples hands fast enough to cause hyper inflation. My sense is that it's being buried in assets rather than the usual spending which passes it through the system and multiple hands quickly.
Predictions (that seem fairly well accepted) is that it's likely to more than double in the next year.
The CPI index predictions seem to say the same.
I think "Covid Tax" as seen a lot of opportunistic driving up of prices - which will have a knock on effect to inflation ( here in the UK). Certainly Tesco and Sainsbury have not held back of ramming though price increases, most of the ulitlty suppliers have done the same - with the useful Brexit / Covid justifications.
I have no doubt it is going up - but I do think the public are being taken for a ride.
Potter wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:40 am
Any predictions?
The M2 money supply has gone off the chart, something like 25%+ in the last year, although the way it's being moved isn't at the same pace, so we haven't seen nutty inflation just yet. In short, loads more money floating about but it's not being pushed through peoples hands fast enough to cause hyper inflation. My sense is that it's being buried in assets rather than the usual spending which passes it through the system and multiple hands quickly.
Predictions (that seem fairly well accepted) is that it's likely to more than double in the next year.
The CPI index predictions seem to say the same.
Depends on what happens to the velocity of money.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
irie wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 12:52 pm
Depends on what happens to the velocity of money.
That's what I meant by "In short, loads more money floating about but it's not being pushed through peoples hands fast enough to cause hyper inflation. My sense is that it's being buried in assets rather than the usual spending which passes it through the system and multiple hands quickly."
But yeah, if velocity goes crackers as well then we're knackered, but the philosophy of the people (hopefully) managing these things is that as velocity increases the money supply will adjust.
Aside from a collapse of this, then it's commonly assumed we'll see actual inflation at min 4%.
In reality I think we're already there.
That depends on who the above we is.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Potter wrote: ↑Fri May 28, 2021 11:40 am
Any predictions?
The M2 money supply has gone off the chart, something like 25%+ in the last year, although the way it's being moved isn't at the same pace, so we haven't seen nutty inflation just yet. In short, loads more money floating about but it's not being pushed through peoples hands fast enough to cause hyper inflation. My sense is that it's being buried in assets rather than the usual spending which passes it through the system and multiple hands quickly.
Predictions (that seem fairly well accepted) is that it's likely to more than double in the next year.
The CPI index predictions seem to say the same.
I think the US is headed for hyper-inflation in the VERY near future. Lots of products have doubled in price (or tripled) in the past few months.
wheelnut wrote: ↑Sat May 29, 2021 9:05 am
We will get inflation, we won’t get hyper-inflation on account of us not being Greece.
The tricky part will be keeping inflation under control as they won’t want to increase interest rates.
Four or five percent is enough to cause people to act quite differently with their money, and then a sudden switchback looking for liquidity might increase the velocity of all that newly printed cash.
It is not "cash".
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
I think I we’ve already got quite significant inflation. It seems to be the demand-pull type of inflation, Travis Perkins have just announced price rises of up to 15% due to supply issues. Hopefully this will be temporary and ease when everyone finishes doing the decking in their gardens because they can’t go on fucking holiday.
Fuel prices are well up as well which normally leads to the standard cost-push type of inflation.
wheelnut wrote: ↑Mon May 31, 2021 7:09 am
I think I we’ve already got quite significant inflation. It seems to be the demand-pull type of inflation, Travis Perkins have just announced price rises of up to 15% due to supply issues. Hopefully this will be temporary and ease when everyone finishes doing the decking in their gardens because they can’t go on fucking holiday.
Fuel prices are well up as well which normally leads to the standard cost-push type of inflation.
Many building materials are cost-push too. Supply has been disrupted, and transport costs have gone through the roof.
irie wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 6:44 pm
It is not "cash".
Instead of trying to provoke a pedantic argument why don't you add your insights to the thread.
There is a good discussion to be had about inflation, but it's a guessing game and few people are going to speculate if all this turns out to be is a thread where people offer up opinions and then get shot down by a pedant for using the wrong terminology whilst they were typing a rushed comment in between working.
Agreed, any discussion about inflation will be a guessing game only made more opaque by the use of incorrect terminology.
My opinion is that sometime there will probably be inflation in the UK in the range of 2 to 5%. But there are so many future factors, such as the actions of central banks involved as global players, that trying to predict timescales, magnitude, and duration of UK inflation is analogous to throwing darts at a darts board with closed eyes.
Last edited by irie on Mon May 31, 2021 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Yup and the BoE removing further checks on over borrowing at the end of last year during rampant house price inflation is just pouring fuel on the coming bonfire. I have no idea when it will be but we must be heading for an almighty financial bang soon.
Supermofo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:58 am
Yup and the BoE removing further checks on over borrowing at the end of last year during rampant house price inflation is just pouring fuel on the coming bonfire. I have no idea when it will be but we must be heading for an almighty financial bang soon.
About 3 weeks ago, one lender announced 6x salary mortgages. That'll end well.
Supermofo wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 11:58 am
Yup and the BoE removing further checks on over borrowing at the end of last year during rampant house price inflation is just pouring fuel on the coming bonfire. I have no idea when it will be but we must be heading for an almighty financial bang soon.
About 3 weeks ago, one lender announced 6x salary mortgages. That'll end well.
Time to spend those savings as they're dropping in real value - what bike am I going to buy next, or is it new car time, what mental, impractical car shall I buy for £30K (and can I get a deal for cash)
The whole 'managing the economy' thing is a farce.
Inflation, deflation, stagflation, stuff happens, governments and central bankers posture, but stuff happens anyway.
Those of us of an age can remember when the only real measure of what was good/bad in the economy was the Balance of Payments, whatever happened to that? I suspect in another 50 years those of you still living will be asking the same question of current measures.
