Would you have an electric car if you had the money for a new car and were in the market for one?

[Potter]

This graph helps to understand.

Dazzle is developing stuff at the beginning of the S-curve, I had a dabble in it too but in a less niche company, I was then involved in the manufacturing of products that skyrocketed because they became economically viable due to scale, once that happens everything moves quickly, it's not trickle down technology in niche areas, it's mass production at huge scale.

I don't know about the timelines of when the curve will shoot up, that was what I was asking, and asking about whether it's retrofit possible or it really is a new product, like a mobile phone that cannot be retrofitted to be the latest thing.

[Mr. Dazzle]

We're on the steep bit now. Great time to be employed in this area

[Potter]

We're on the steep bit now. Great time to be employed in this area

The steep bit is where mass production and scale goes huge, but you're saying it's going to be ten years until your products come to the mass market?

[Mr. Dazzle]

Bit less than that. We currently make in the tens of thousands but we're building factories to make in the hundreds of thousands or millions.

Cars take time as well, anything cosumer takes time. Supercars are easy, no one expects them to last 100k for twenty years and they can have absurd servicing requirements. All of our effort at the moment is going into making them at sensible cost.

My own personal bit is one or two steps before the ramping up that goes on now. I'm working on stuff that will be in showrooms late 2020s/early 2030s whereas my colleagues are laying out factory plans right now.

[slowsider]

Reminds me of this "funny" from the glory days of chain emails and AoL.

Edit: lolz at number 7 though. Life imitating art.


14. You'd have to press the "Start" button to turn the engine off.[/i]

Lolz at the last. Imagine having to turn a key!!

And yet my muscle memory still kicks in now and again.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Reminds me of this "funny" from the glory days of chain emails and AoL.

Edit: lolz at number 7 though. Life imitating art.


14. You'd have to press the "Start" button to turn the engine off.[/i]

Lolz at the last. Imagine having to turn a key!!

And yet my muscle memory still kicks in now and again.

Didn't even spot that....yeah my car has the same button to start and stop but no key.

[Horse]

Every manufacturer will switch over, because why wouldn't they, then your £50k car is going to take a massive hit

There used to be a techie joke about the microcomputer company that was so successful that it disappeared.

Not a joke, it happened to the company I worked for. In 1982 they introduced a new-to-the-world technology. Two boxes the size of washing machines full of printed circuit boards running dedicated software. Within 10 years the hardware was a third the size producing far better output. Within another 10 it was software only, running on high end PCs. I was made redundant in 2008.

The building is empty now, hundreds of employees gone. You could use a phone now to achieve better results than the original 1982 product.

The change in technology was relentless, it was not optional.

What do you suggest to protect the value of existing cars, that further development ceases because of the implications for current owners? It's an either/or situation!

[Potter]

We currently make in the tens of thousands but we're building factories to make in the hundreds of thousands or millions.

That is what I was saying - I probably should have put the S-curve up first so my point was clear.

If expensive technology is not widely accepted and only used on premium products then it takes ages to trickle down, but if a manufacturer suddenly cracks the battery/distance/charging issue, and the economy of scale means that they're banging thousands out a week, you'll then see it come through a lot quicker.

Once you get to the point where it's viable then it will go to big scale production, at that point to the consumer it'll look like it's almost overnight, one minute the products weren't there and the next week hundreds of thousands, or millions, are being produced.

For you it's taken ages, for the consumer it's a lot faster, for them it's not trickle down technology, it's big bang technology - and that's the point that changes appear to happen overnight and the old technology becomes obsolete in quick time.

Which goes back to my point, once your factory starts churning out millions, then the old technology will be obsolete and probably unusable because of charging times and distance limitations compared to the new stuff. If you're in a new car at a charging station then you don't want to be waiting behind someone in an old tech car that takes an hour to charge if yours takes 10 mins.

[Horse]

For you it's taken ages, for the consumer it's a lot faster,

A colleague said to me yesterday that, in our company, it's often 25 years from original work through to widespread benefit!

[Potter]

A colleague said to me yesterday that, in our company, it's often 25 years from original work through to widespread benefit!

Depends on the industry and the classic example is Nokia being at the top of their game and then they weren't, they didn't keep up with what was happening and just wanted to trickle things down.
The Engineers and business people often have different ideas and agendas. If you want one opinion then go to the Engineer, if you want another then go to the bloke responsible for the P&L.

As soon as something is possible and viable and economically attractive then it hits the exciting part of an s-curve and you're either on it or left behind before you know what's happening - and that includes your products e.g. Nokia.
The question is how long to get to the take-off point, that's the important bit to understand because then it's just a race to get it to market.

[Mr. Dazzle]

I know all this stuff about the S curve, i just don't think it will be fast enough to render non solid-state battery cars irrelevant. Consider that few people have even made one that works...you're not gonna displace current tech at volume in much less than 5 years I don't think, probably more like 10.

Tesla 3s seem new for example, but they've actually been on the road since 2017.

Even that example S curve shows the steep bit as over 15 years.

But yes....keep up or be left behind, for sure. Thats why I moved into working on EVs

[Cousin Jack]

So perhaps I am right to wait, use a hybrid until all cars can charge in 10 mins, and charging stations are widespread, even out in the boondocks.

[Potter]

What do you suggest to protect the value of existing cars, that further development ceases because of the implications for current owners? It's an either/or situation!

That's the other thing I was saying, it would make a lot of sense (for a company) if retrofits were simple and cost effective.
If the motors and batteries were easily changeable then it's sort of future proof, the car will still need to be basically car shaped and made of something durable and everything else including software can be upgraded.

So if Tesla sold their new cars with an upgrade solution included in a warranty, a bit like the Porsche warranty but it would cover new technology, then that might mean less fear over being left with an old technology car. For example, it wouldn't happen because of their sales strategy, but if Apple guaranteed that for ten years any new technology could be retrofitted inside your old iphone then we'd all probably be on iphone 3's or something.

[Potter]

So perhaps I am right to wait, use a hybrid until all cars can charge in 10 mins, and charging stations are widespread, even out in the boondocks.

Well, that's the question I was asking before I got told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about.

At some point I expect a tipping point, from ICE to EV and from current EV to new battery technology EV. I don't really see small scale punctuated equilibrium, I think it will be big steps.
At the moment it's almost all ICE to all practical purposes, but for example Jaguar announcing that they'll only make EV from 2025 makes me wonder what is coming to enable that to be viable, IMHO it's not possible with the current battery and infrastructure technology.

[Mr. Dazzle]

EV from 2025 makes me wonder what is coming to enable that to be viable

Money....lots and lots of money

Course it is, in 8 years time it'll be illegal to sell pure ICEs in Europe and the rest of the world isn't far behind. Therefore anyone who's in a position to offer charging and batteries will be replacing BP and Shell garages won't they?

Big black hole of investment at the moment, but it doesn't take a financial genius to see the long term pay off.

All of the big OEMs are investing heavily in charging infrastructure and batteries. Its not particularly niche news but if you're not looking out for it I suppose you wouldn't see.

[Mussels]

So perhaps I am right to wait, use a hybrid until all cars can charge in 10 mins, and charging stations are widespread, even out in the boondocks.

Well, that's the question I was asking before I got told I didn't know what the fuck I was talking about.

At some point I expect a tipping point, from ICE to EV and from current EV to new battery technology EV. I don't really see small scale punctuated equilibrium, I think it will be big steps.
At the moment it's almost all ICE to all practical purposes, but for example Jaguar announcing that they'll only make EV from 2025 makes me wonder what is coming to enable that to be viable, IMHO it's not possible with the current battery and infrastructure technology.

I think you are believing the hype more than Mr. Dazzle even though he's saying it. There are no big breakthroughs about to hit the market, production is just being ramped up in anticipation. Recent developments are evolutionary rather than revolutionary, his motor technology probably looks great on marketing pamphlets but makes little difference in real life.

[Mr. Dazzle]

When is there ever a sudden revolutionary switch in anything? Even personal computers and the Internet, which must be the biggest switch up in society since the invention of the steam engine, was over about 25 years wasn't it?

[Mussels]

When is there ever a sudden revolutionary switch in anything? Even personal computers and the Internet, which must be the biggest switch up in society since the invention of the steam engine, was over about 25 years wasn't it?

I agree but we are constantly fed press releases telling us a great breakthrough is just around the corner and it will change everything. This big change to EVs is only happening because governments are forcing it rather than it being something many people want.
I'd still have one but as a single car household a PHEV is the furthest I'll go with available tech, I was trying to look at them earlier today and manufacturers aren't making it easy.

[Potter]

Hence my questions.

Illegal to sell ICE cars in 8yrs, the forum EV engineer saying his technology won't trickle down to wide scale consumers for 10yrs.
Jaguar saying they'll cease ICE production in 4yrs.

It's not adding up fellas, unless we're going to see new technology and infrastructure emerge soon, and unless everyone is literally talking bollocks then I'm expecting to see the technology that makes EV cars mainstream everywhere by 2025.

[Mr. Dazzle]

Our motors are better than those in a Tesla, but Teslas are still pretty good

We're not suddenly gonna make EVs possible or not. They're already possible.

I think there's a human tendency to expect sudden night and day changes, but that almost never happens. Look how many more EVs you can buy compared to 5 years ago or 10 years ago, then consider what 5 or 10 years from now would look like.