Covid restrictions - are you adhering or not?

[weeksy]

Then as it's not going to change, maybe you need to consider a different business. Look at all the chef's who when restaurants closed down went into home delivery, jam making, bread baking etc and selling in stalls instead. People need to realise it's not going away. If your business relies on tourists, well, you need a new business plan.
Sorry to sound harsh but that's the reality of the planet.

Make curtains, clothes, duvet covers, pillowcases, you seem to enjoy that stuff and the French like bespoke patterns and people have money they can't go out and spend now

[DefTrap]

From a covid policy point of view, restrictions to keep covid out of the UK by restricting travel have some merit.

However
- It doesn't really work - if you really want to travel you can - the testing policy is flawed. It only takes a few infected to breach the curtain and you may as well not have bothered.
- Once you get into the UK, it's party time. When I arrived in the UK in August, the difference to "how it is being controlled", compared to otherwhere, was shocking

These are just observations.
It doesn't really feel like any of these restrictions do much for "control" but then all we're really trying to do is stop the hospitals going under and panic setting in.

[irie]

So what made you make this comment then?

It is not reliable evidence but from reports in South Africa appears to be the case.

So you would agree then, that with the lack of evidence, it’s too early to make policy decisions, and to just let it circulate freely in the hope that it’s less virulent would be unwise?

The policy decision not to allow the variant to freely circulate has already been made!

[Count Steer]

From a covid policy point of view, restrictions to keep covid out of the UK by restricting travel have some merit.

However
- It doesn't really work - if you really want to travel you can - the testing policy is flawed. It only takes a few infected to breach the curtain and you may as well not have bothered.
- Once you get into the UK, it's party time. When I arrived in the UK in August, the difference to "how it is being controlled", compared to otherwhere, was shocking

These are just observations.
It doesn't really feel like any of these restrictions do much for "control" but then all we're really trying to do is stop the hospitals going under and panic setting in.

Pandemic Management 101 innit? Try and manage the problem in-house and try and shut the door on incoming problems. Doesn't work if you only half close the door or let people in from red countries via another transit country etc etc. It does do something for the internal economy if you relax things internally but, as you saw, you're probably more likely to go home with a problem than arrive with one if you arrive from some countries.

The USA put a block on incoming people that had tested positive for HIV. They kept it for 22 years. Did it help? Did they manage the in-house problem? Did some non-positive people visit the USA and come home positive? Who knows? They must have thought it did something if they kept it going for 22 years! Or maybe it was just signalling, which seems to be a common political approach. 'Look! We're doing something'.

[Horse]

but then all we're really trying to do is stop the hospitals going under and panic setting in.

It's on a scale from 'NHS is broken' through 'waiting lists', via 'reaching limits and delaying other urgent treatment' before 'overwhelmed'.

ST today:

20211205_094413.png (312.61 KiB) Viewed 317 times

As much as some of the antivaccer might suffer, there's huge consequences for many others too.

If omicron (or any subsequent variant) isn't reduced by vaccines, then what can be done next? Extreme measures of either saying "Ah fuckit" and damn the consequences, or permanent lockdowns?

Edit: from is to isn't

[DefTrap]

If omicron (or any subsequent variant) isn't reduced by vaccines, then what can be done next? Extreme measures of either saying "Ah fuckit" and damn the consequences, or permanent lockdowns?

Probably as per now cyclical semi/permanent lockdowns for the foreseeable. Let's be honest, in the West the status quo is a pain in the backside but it's hardly Hitler's Germany. The UK has had 6 months of fun since Freedom Day, time to start paying the consequences.

It'll be interesting to see whether there start to be political repercussions, governments fall or rise because of perceived failure/success over covid handling.

[Noggin]

Sadly, for a lot of people, it's business breaking

I know there needs to be restrictions but sometimes myself and many others wonder how long we can keep going

Yep unfortunately like Weeksy said you may have to adapt or suffer.
Battering on in the hope that things will change to suit you is probably unwise, I'd be going the other way and changing to suit what's happening in the world.

It's a shit sandwich but there isn't much you can do.

Totally get that. Between my mental issues for the last year and the business uncertainty, it's why I'm working for someone else this year

But obviously, virtually all my friends out here work in tourism - and this area is reliant on visitors from other countries as well as natives (probably more than natives)

It's not something that has a simple solution - certainly not by small businesses

[wheelnut]

The policy decision not to allow the variant to freely circulate has already been made!

Based on the fact that there’s no solid evidence either way, the decision has been made to try and slow it down. Are you saying that’s the wrong decision?

[Horse]

it might not necessarily be bad economically for the UK if it changes behaviour

SiL moved West and bought a holiday property for income. Travel restrictions haved certainly increased (lockdowns aside) revenue for domestic holiday businesses.

And there have been other massive changes, 'working from home' and internet shopping / home delivery being just two - but with consequences such as empty high streets (vacant shops and few punters) and the 'lunchtime cafes' failing.

Other effects, of course. A rellie was a BA pilot. We've read about the problems for Noggins' industry, etc. [More posted while I was typing]

Someone said 'change is constant'. The last two years have been 'change accelerated'.

[Count Steer]

Someone said 'change is constant'. The last two years have been 'change accelerated'.

Another change that has been predicted by some is the rise in size and power of Big Pharma (and the agri-chem) industry.
In today's news, Pfizer accused of profiteering. Cost per dose (excluding R&D etc) estimated at 76p, cost to wealthy countries £22.

Including R&D etc, Pfizer boss says profit margin in the 'high 20s%).

Given that Germany put ~€350M into BionTech for the R&D and that every variant may need a new formulation for some time to come, I wonder if any country is going to start giving it all a hard stare. It probably only matters if that country is the USA and they do have some form on dismantling monopolies. I suspect not, at least, not yet.

Might prompt a few countries to put more into 'home grown' pharma though which should give more resilience.

(AZ went for an 'at cost' approach and appear to have been out-manoeuvred for breaking ranks. The attitude of some governments seems to have been influenced by some powerful lobbying but we'll probably never get to know how true/real that is).

[DefTrap]

Funny how big pharma is applauded for pulling out all the stops to get these covid vaccs out there (I would say verging on miraculous in shortened timescale and high levels of efficacy) but are criticised for trying to make a buck. Bit like the applause Vs FuckYou nurse dilemma.

As a healthy youngster I didn't realise what all the fuss was about regarding meds but as you get older you just want the pills right now to sort you out. This stuff isn't free, they don't just wander about grinding up a few nettles, chanting and hoping for the best. Does the 'profiteering' account for all the drugs that are a flop, or don't make the investment back prior to the patent expiring?

That's not to say pharmas aren't minted, they are, so are a lot of industries.

[Count Steer]

Funny how big pharma is applauded for pulling out all the stops to get these covid vaccs out there (I would say verging on miraculous in shortened timescale and high levels of efficacy) but are criticised for trying to make a buck. Bit like the applause Vs FuckYou nurse dilemma.

As a healthy youngster I didn't realise what all the fuss was about regarding meds but as you get older you just want the pills right now to sort you out. This stuff isn't free, they don't just wander about grinding up a few nettles, chanting and hoping for the best. Does the 'profiteering' account for all the drugs that are a flop, or don't make the investment back prior to the patent expiring?

That's not to say pharmas aren't minted, they are, so are a lot of industries.

Don't have any issues with commerciality or free enterprise. The thought of the dead hand of government controlled pharma is not something to be contemplated.

However, our government has just ordered another few million shots of vaccine to, ostensibly, deal with a variant from an area of the world that has been short of/can't afford vaccines. As long as vaccine shortages/low immunisation rates keep going in significant chunks of the world, we're likely to keep pouring money in.

Whether the the richer governments should put money into the poorer ones or into the pharma company directly and/or the pharma companies should put more of what they've got into the poorer countries (and make less £) is an area for discussion and Treasuries to consider. If nobody does it we're just perpetuating and paying to maintain the status quo.

Unless of course a vaccine resistant, asymptomatic-ish, variant from a poorer area produces a viable, non-asymptomatic-ish, resistant variant in a vaccinated population....then all bets are off. That's not on the cards is it...?

[irie]

The policy decision not to allow the variant to freely circulate has already been made!

Based on the fact that there’s no solid evidence either way, the decision has been made to try and slow it down. Are you saying that’s the wrong decision?

If there is no solid evidence either way then there is no more justification for trying to slow it down than allowing the variant to freely circulate.

[weeksy]

The policy decision not to allow the variant to freely circulate has already been made!

Based on the fact that there’s no solid evidence either way, the decision has been made to try and slow it down. Are you saying that’s the wrong decision?

If there is no solid evidence either way then there is no more justification for trying to slow it down than allowing the variant to freely circulate.

So someone makes a judgement call. Why are they wrong to err on the side of caution?

[irie]

Based on the fact that there’s no solid evidence either way, the decision has been made to try and slow it down. Are you saying that’s the wrong decision?

If there is no solid evidence either way then there is no more justification for trying to slow it down than allowing the variant to freely circulate.

So someone makes a judgement call. Why are they wrong to err on the side of caution?

It could easily be wrong if (as does appear to be the case) the more highly infectious Omicron variant outcompetes Delta while at the same time having much lower infection and mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta. The measures being taken to try to restrict Omicron circulation thus may prove to be counter productive. Omicron is already freely circulating in the UK.

Edit: I was wrong, this should read "much higher infection rates but much lower mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta".

[weeksy]

If there is no solid evidence either way then there is no more justification for trying to slow it down than allowing the variant to freely circulate.

So someone makes a judgement call. Why are they wrong to err on the side of caution?

It could easily be wrong if (as does appears to be the case) the more highly infectious Omicron variant outcompetes Delta while at the same time having much lower infection and mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta. The measures being taken to try to restrict Omicron circulation thus may prove to be counter productive.

Yes and could just as easily be wrong, what's your point here ? You bitch about politicians and you may as be one yourself with your lack of answers, comittment and responses that are just complete and utter blabber. You never answer a question, you never raise an actual point it's all just bollox and innuendo but we never actually get a shred of common sense or even a shred of action from you.

[wheelnut]

If there is no solid evidence either way then there is no more justification for trying to slow it down than allowing the variant to freely circulate.

That’s some strange reasoning there.

Hey ho.

[Count Steer]

If there is no solid evidence either way then there is no more justification for trying to slow it down than allowing the variant to freely circulate.

So someone makes a judgement call. Why are they wrong to err on the side of caution?

It could easily be wrong if (as does appear to be the case) the more highly infectious Omicron variant outcompetes Delta while at the same time having much lower infection and mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta. The measures being taken to try to restrict Omicron circulation thus may prove to be counter productive. Omicron is already freely circulating in the UK.

All the suggestions so far indicate that it is likely to have higher infection rates in the fully vaccinated and previously infected. (Which means that any mutations could occur in a highly vaccinated population, which is, erm, not ideal).

Just one example of research:

Previous studies of Omicron’s spike mutations — particularly in the region that recognizes receptors on human cells — suggest that the variant will blunt the potency of neutralizing antibodies. For instance, in a September 2021 Nature paper2, a team co-led by Paul Bieniasz, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York City, engineered a highly mutated version of spike — in a virus incapable of causing COVID-19 — that shares numerous mutations with Omicron. The ‘polymutant spike’ proved fully resistant to neutralizing antibodies from most of the people they tested, who had either received two doses of an mRNA vaccine or recovered from COVID-19. With Omicron, “we expect there to be a significant hit”, says Bieniasz.

There are other reports from SA indicating that this appears to be the case.

[irie]

So someone makes a judgement call. Why are they wrong to err on the side of caution?

It could easily be wrong if (as does appear to be the case) the more highly infectious Omicron variant outcompetes Delta while at the same time having much lower infection and mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta. The measures being taken to try to restrict Omicron circulation thus may prove to be counter productive. Omicron is already freely circulating in the UK.

All the suggestions so far indicate that it is likely to have higher infection rates in the fully vaccinated and previously infected. (Which means that any mutations could occur in a highly vaccinated population, which is, erm, not ideal).

Just one example of research:

Previous studies of Omicron’s spike mutations — particularly in the region that recognizes receptors on human cells — suggest that the variant will blunt the potency of neutralizing antibodies. For instance, in a September 2021 Nature paper2, a team co-led by Paul Bieniasz, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York City, engineered a highly mutated version of spike — in a virus incapable of causing COVID-19 — that shares numerous mutations with Omicron. The ‘polymutant spike’ proved fully resistant to neutralizing antibodies from most of the people they tested, who had either received two doses of an mRNA vaccine or recovered from COVID-19. With Omicron, “we expect there to be a significant hit”, says Bieniasz.

There are other reports from SA indicating that this appears to be the case.

You are right, what I should have said above was "much higher infection rates but much lower mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta".

[irie]

So someone makes a judgement call. Why are they wrong to err on the side of caution?

It could easily be wrong if (as does appears to be the case) the more highly infectious Omicron variant outcompetes Delta while at the same time having much lower infection and mortality rates in the fully vaccinated and especially those who have had boosters, than Delta. The measures being taken to try to restrict Omicron circulation thus may prove to be counter productive.

Yes and could just as easily be wrong, what's your point here ? You bitch about politicians and you may as be one yourself with your lack of answers, comittment and responses that are just complete and utter blabber. You never answer a question, you never raise an actual point it's all just bollox and innuendo but we never actually get a shred of common sense or even a shred of action from you.

If you need certainty in the face of uncertainty then for example religion will satisfy that need.