The Brexit thread

[Saga Lout]

It would have been easy to avoid and planned in the 5 years hence and be a killer policy - evict immigrants, save an industry, give jobs to Brits, improve conditions.

But instead it's incompetence and desperately trying to blame someone else. Sadly no EU to blame, that ship has sailed.

This is the government you're talking about? Our government? The one that struggled to "honour the result of the referendum" as they promised?

Yes, they could have had a 5 year plan to train more lorry drivers and drive up their wages etc, but what about all the other jobs that were going to be in demand? The government never has enough information to plan to the required level of detail. The best they can do is set the right conditions and hope for the best. The more they interfere the more the law of unintended consequences takes over.

[Count Steer]

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

Gotta love stats. So, I wonder what was being done to rectify the shortfall?

[millemille]

On Monday, Mr Barnier argued that the fuel crisis was a “direct consequence” of the UK leaving the union.

Speaking at an event at the London School of Economics to promote his new book, he said: “Part of the answer is linked, effectively, to the consequences of Brexit because the UK chose to end freedom of movement. And there is a clear link to the truck drivers.”

Barnier evidently doesn't want to let the facts get in the way of promoting his book, and promoting himself as French Presidential candidate next year.

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

In 2016, EU drivers accounted for 37,000, or just 11 per cent, of the 321,000 lorry drivers in the UK. By 2021 that had marginally decreased to 10 per cent, with them now making 28,000 of the total 275,000 drivers.

While the proportion of EU drivers has remained steady since Brexit, the average age of HGV drivers has been rising as younger truckers leave the profession.

ONS figures showed that in 2013, 45 per cent of drivers were over 50, but by 2020 that demographic represented more than half, 54 percent, of all truckers.

Conversely, drivers aged between 35- to 49-years-old, those who could reasonably expect to spend another 10 to 20 years in the industry, shrank sharply, dwindling from 40 per cent of the overall workforce in 2013 to 29 per cent in 2020.

That's not what the Office for National Statistics' data shows though...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... ationality

For the period July '16 to June '17 LGV driver numbers in the UK were at their highest with 280k UK nationals driving and 40k EU nationals driving.

The number of UK nationals driving LGV's since then has steadily declined down to 244k in the period April '20 to March '21.

The number of EU nationals driving held constant (+/- 1k) until the period April '20 to march '21 where the numbers dropped by 11k, from 39k in the previous 12 months to 28k. A significant, >25%, decrease.

[Saga Lout]

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

Gotta love stats. So, I woder what was being done to rectify the shortfall?

Nice edit. I was going to suggest you needed a new calculator.

[DefTrap]

Yes, they could have had a 5 year plan to train more lorry drivers and drive up their wages etc, but what about all the other jobs that were going to be in demand? The government never has enough information to plan to the required level of detail. The best they can do is set the right conditions and hope for the best. The more they interfere the more the law of unintended consequences takes over.

They should put that in their manifesto
"We see there's a problem, but it's too big to deal with really and we're scared our policies will be totally wrong. Easier to do nothing, blame someone else."

[Count Steer]

Gotta love stats. So, I woder what was being done to rectify the shortfall?

Nice edit. I was going to suggest you needed a new calculator.

Nah.....new specs.

[Potter]

This is true but the cuŕrent question is whether the current situation re driver shortage was predictable and could have been addressed before.

I previously knew nothing about a driver shortage, but I'm not charged with doing so.
Now I do know, and after having a very brief look at it, it's clear that it was predictable, just like the shortage of certain tradesmen is/was predictable.

The government should certainly have mandated the industry to do something, but the need was not great then, so nothing got done.

So, the problem has been brewing for some time. Until now I don't remember any of the current 'save our glorious English truckers' boys raising so much as a peep. In fact, some of them might like to revisit their social media comments from the tanker drivers strike. I can help them if they like.

I don't think I did, but that could have been me, maybe I had a moan about them, I don't recall, but the beautiful thing about being a thinking human being is that we can reassess and review what we used to think against what we think now, in light of new information.

See above about the need for change and right now we are where we are, it's clear that the driver shortage isn't caused by Brexit, it's caused by it being an unattractive job. There is now an urgency to rectify that and I don't think the best solution is immigration of people that will put up with the salary and conditions.

[slowsider]

It would have been easy to avoid and planned in the 5 years hence and be a killer policy - evict immigrants, save an industry, give jobs to Brits, improve conditions.

But instead it's incompetence and desperately trying to blame someone else. Sadly no EU to blame, that ship has sailed.

Back on subject, that's not how the UK works, you're right, the government has been woeful on employment sustainability, they do favour white collar city workers and it's London centric. Your five year plan suggestion would have been killer and I'm lucky enough to be able to do that (I've set up apprenticeship/graduate/A level trainee schemes) but a country like the UK isn't that simple - for one thing the political wrangling would probably crush it and slow organic change has been the way, with punctuated equilibrium situations like the one now, where the UK drivers have an opportunity to force something if they're supported.

What the UK needs is a centre ground Labour government that look outside of London.

I think the decks are stacked against any of that.
The lorry drivers haven't had anyone clapping for them; picture the right-wing press if they staged a slowdown and tried to 'Hold Britain to Ransom' or 'Held our Nurses Hostage'. Cue the kicking that Starmer would get if he hinted at supporting them.
Those that DID have a nightly round of applause were offered 1% subject to affordability.


5 year plans? Command economies? Is that you, Uncle Joe?

[Saga Lout]

5 year plans? Command economies? Is that you, Uncle Joe?

No bread or potatoes, but rejoice, comrades, tractor production is through the roof.

[irie]

... right now we are where we are, it's clear that the driver shortage isn't caused by Brexit, it's caused by it being an unattractive job. There is now an urgency to rectify that and I don't think the best solution is immigration of people that will put up with the salary and conditions.

This.

[Horse]

What we need is self driving lorries.

I've just posted a link in the automated vehicles thread, to a new Volvo quarry truck.

It isn't just the road haulage industry that has workforce issues, those shortages are one of the issues driving (sic) automated vehicles elsewhere (agriculture is another).

[Pirahna]

... right now we are where we are, it's clear that the driver shortage isn't caused by Brexit, it's caused by it being an unattractive job. There is now an urgency to rectify that and I don't think the best solution is immigration of people that will put up with the salary and conditions.

This.

You're very pro Brexit and like anyone that says Brexit has nothing to do with it. Can you explain why the government thinks it's a good idea to relax visa restrictions brought in post Brexit?

I've not really been keeping up with Brexit related crap, but as panic buying seems the order of the day, aren't there a shed load more customs regulations due on January 1st?

[Lutin]

I've not really been keeping up with Brexit related crap, but as panic buying seems the order of the day, aren't there a shed load more customs regulations due on January 1st?

I wouldn't worry about that as Bozo will just delay them indefinitely like he has done with parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.

[Asian Boss]

I've not really been keeping up with Brexit related crap, but as panic buying seems the order of the day, aren't there a shed load more customs regulations due on January 1st?

I wouldn't worry about that as Bozo will just delay them indefinitely like he has done with parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.

That sounds like a perfect solution and a fabulous situation to find ourselves in.

[wheelnut]

... right now we are where we are, it's clear that the driver shortage isn't caused by Brexit, it's caused by it being an unattractive job. There is now an urgency to rectify that and I don't think the best solution is immigration of people that will put up with the salary and conditions.

This.

Has it suddenly become much more unattractive since brexit or is it just a coincidence?

[Cousin Jack]

I suspect the figures mean little if they are based on UK industry jobs. Pre-Brexit lots of EU trucks and drivers were tramping in the UK, but of course they were EU trucks, EU drivers and EU companies, so I doubt they appear in UK stats.
It is very noticeable that since Brexit the number of left hook trucks with foreign plates seems to have decreased.

[Horse]

It is very noticeable that since Brexit the number of left hook trucks with foreign plates seems to have decreased.

Given what else has happened in the last 19 months, with factories closed around the world and changes in shopping patterns, etc., a change in the number of left hooker trucks is hardly surprising.

Unless there's been a similar increase in the number of UK trucks, the bulk of trade is only likely to have reduced. Brexit might have affected that, but covid has probably done more.

[Pirahna]

Grant Schapps says it's Brexit related.

The Independent: Brexit has been a ‘factor’ in fuel crisis, Grant Shapps admits.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 28368.html

[Docca]

CCDDE8A8-7250-4DAC-A94C-FD09C343A4B9.jpeg (203.22 KiB) Viewed 239 times

[Potter]

Has it suddenly become much more unattractive since brexit or is it just a coincidence?

Apparently it's been in decline for 30yrs, then IR35, a global pandemic, some stood by or laid off in some sectors during lockdown so they got work elsewhere, an aging workforce, etc, and it looks like all that combined has caused a shortage that isn't able to be plastered over like it has been for a couple of decades or so.

I think pro-brexiters would be very happy for you to say brexit caused it, because that's what they voted for, get rid of the forriners, prove the point about forriners coming here and stealing our jobs with cheap rates, and then once they've gone raise wages for UK people, so if you want to pin the blame on brexit then I'm sure they won't argue with you. This rather proves the point that they think they were right about all along.

Personally I think Brexit might have been a straw on a camels back, but it's not the cause of it, and "Bozo ate my hamster and Brexit is the end of civilisation" makes a good tabloid headline but it wouldn't get a very good mark in a masters dissertation.