The Brexit thread

[Kneerly Down]

Brother is an HGV driver.
He said HMRC came down hard on IR35 earlier this year and most of the major supermarkets and the like decided to play it safe saying 'if the truck you are driving isn't yours you are not self-employed'.

[Docca]

I've seen this all my life and this is why I don't like shop floor socialists, because they'll stir shit but when crunch time comes they'll quite happily stab people in the back.

This is an opportunity to help UK drivers get better pay and conditions, but some of you are doing your absolute best to sabotage it. If you're one of the ones advocating for cheap foreign workers to come back then hang your head in shame, you're a scab and a backstabber and I hope you get that karma right back when it's your turn.

I'm from the shop floor and I know what you're like, but at least now it's not just an academic discussion, when called upon you've shown who you are, you're out in the light now.
It disgusts me and I'm glad I don't have to share a brew room with some of you.

Are you equally concerned about Filipino house staff and Bangladeshi road workers in the UAE or is that cheap imported labour ok?

When I was in the UAE ( admittedly many years ago) Filipino nurses were paid about a 3rd of what European nurses were. Very much second or even third class citizens. Maybe it’s all changed now?

I’m also not sure how much you can help UK drivers when they’re sick or unemployed or retired when you chose to live overseas to avoid paying UK tax?

[Mussels]

Self employed people used to decide if they were genuinely self employed, the tax office took several to court and mostly lost because you can get insurance against HMRC making an example of you. After they were unable to scare the self employed they turned on employers, made them responsible and threatened big fines. Employers bottled it and decided all their jobs were tax liable and contractors walked, now many people have given up contracting because the extra risk is no longer worth the reward.
This has been in the works for years, nothing to do with Brexit.

[Docca]

Paranoid? I remember Docca telling us about a bloke that was stabbed after a forum argument and I also remember someone turning up to Stigs house to visit harm upon him and the police had to take him away.

This is true, although it was a she and she was a psychologist.

Let’s not get silly though- nobody here is surely going to put another forum member at risk/contact employers. I don’t mind the strong words, I don’t mind that I think that most of you are bellends, but I do genuinely love that we can talk frankly with each other. I really value and respect your views, good and bad.

Time for a cup of tea and a pivot on the conversation.

[Horse]

Let’s not get silly though- nobody here is surely going to put another forum member at risk/contact employers.

A colleague who was on Visordown (Byker28i) had an accusing email sent to our employers.

TenBears sent me a lovely "I know where you live, I'm going to get you" PM. Which was nice.

[Felix]

A colleague who was on Visordown (Byker28i) had an accusing email sent to our employers.

He was on TRC you know

[wheelnut]

What the UK needs is a centre ground Labour government that look outside of London.

I couldn’t agree more and I had high hopes for Starmer. Hopes that are consistently dashed every time he opens his mouth.

[Count Steer]

Self employed people used to decide if they were genuinely self employed, the tax office took several to court and mostly lost because you can get insurance against HMRC making an example of you. After they were unable to scare the self employed they turned on employers, made them responsible and threatened big fines. Employers bottled it and decided all their jobs were tax liable and contractors walked, now many people have given up contracting because the extra risk is no longer worth the reward.
This has been in the works for years, nothing to do with Brexit.

This is true but the cuŕrent question is whether the current situation re driver shortage was predictable and could have been addressed before. The impact of changes to IR35 was, the impact of withdrawal was, the impact of stopping testing was etc etc etc.

The transport correspondent of the local TV station was on recently and said he'd been on talking about driver shortages for 30 years so the shortage and multiple reasons for it are hardly a shock.

The vast majority of UK drivers are white, male and in their 50s so there's another shortage coming, particularly considering the health issues that come with the conditions - like the food that is usually available at lorry parks. This has been coming down the track for some time.

So, the problem has been brewing for some time. Until now I don't remember any of the current 'save our glorious English truckers' boys raising so much as a peep. In fact, some of them might like to revisit their social media comments from the tanker drivers strike. I can help them if they like.

[Yambo]

So, the problem has been brewing for some time. Until now I don't remember any of the current 'save our glorious English truckers' boys raising so much as a peep. In fact, some of them might like to revisit their social media comments from the tanker drivers strike. I can help them if they like.

The problem arguably started when gross vehicle weights were raised following innovations like air suspension on lorries.

It's not a simple issue but there are some simple things which make lorry driving a somewhat unappealing job. Now, there are lots of different driving jobs around and I'd venture to suggest that the guys that get to go home every night will have different reasons than a guy doing trunking or one multi-dropping over 4 or 5 days with a 40 ft artic. There are a few more categories of course, tanker drivers need at least one extra qualification for example.

The first guy who goes home every night may still be putting in a 60 hour week when his mates down the pub are working 40 hours for a bit more beer money. Then there's the traffic, comprised of mainly single occupancy cars filling the roads and simply making getting a larger vehicle around more difficult.

[Mr. Dazzle]

What we need is self driving lorries.

Either it'll all work out perfectly, or they'll sit stationary obstinately not moving because they've mistaken a plastic bag in the road for a kitten.

Which ever way it goes, today's problems won't matter

[Horse]

What we need is self driving lorries.

Either it'll all work out perfectly, or they'll sit stationary obstinately not moving because they've mistaken a plastic bag in the road for a kitten.

Which ever way it goes, today's problems won't matter

Ah, the great Yorkie Bar sales crash of '21

[irie]

On Monday, Mr Barnier argued that the fuel crisis was a “direct consequence” of the UK leaving the union.

Speaking at an event at the London School of Economics to promote his new book, he said: “Part of the answer is linked, effectively, to the consequences of Brexit because the UK chose to end freedom of movement. And there is a clear link to the truck drivers.”

Barnier evidently doesn't want to let the facts get in the way of promoting his book, and promoting himself as French Presidential candidate next year.

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

In 2016, EU drivers accounted for 37,000, or just 11 per cent, of the 321,000 lorry drivers in the UK. By 2021 that had marginally decreased to 10 per cent, with them now making 28,000 of the total 275,000 drivers.

While the proportion of EU drivers has remained steady since Brexit, the average age of HGV drivers has been rising as younger truckers leave the profession.

ONS figures showed that in 2013, 45 per cent of drivers were over 50, but by 2020 that demographic represented more than half, 54 percent, of all truckers.

Conversely, drivers aged between 35- to 49-years-old, those who could reasonably expect to spend another 10 to 20 years in the industry, shrank sharply, dwindling from 40 per cent of the overall workforce in 2013 to 29 per cent in 2020.

[Saga Lout]

It would have been easy to avoid and planned in the 5 years hence and be a killer policy - evict immigrants, save an industry, give jobs to Brits, improve conditions.

But instead it's incompetence and desperately trying to blame someone else. Sadly no EU to blame, that ship has sailed.

This is the government you're talking about? Our government? The one that struggled to "honour the result of the referendum" as they promised?

Yes, they could have had a 5 year plan to train more lorry drivers and drive up their wages etc, but what about all the other jobs that were going to be in demand? The government never has enough information to plan to the required level of detail. The best they can do is set the right conditions and hope for the best. The more they interfere the more the law of unintended consequences takes over.

[Count Steer]

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

Gotta love stats. So, I wonder what was being done to rectify the shortfall?

[millemille]

On Monday, Mr Barnier argued that the fuel crisis was a “direct consequence” of the UK leaving the union.

Speaking at an event at the London School of Economics to promote his new book, he said: “Part of the answer is linked, effectively, to the consequences of Brexit because the UK chose to end freedom of movement. And there is a clear link to the truck drivers.”

Barnier evidently doesn't want to let the facts get in the way of promoting his book, and promoting himself as French Presidential candidate next year.

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

In 2016, EU drivers accounted for 37,000, or just 11 per cent, of the 321,000 lorry drivers in the UK. By 2021 that had marginally decreased to 10 per cent, with them now making 28,000 of the total 275,000 drivers.

While the proportion of EU drivers has remained steady since Brexit, the average age of HGV drivers has been rising as younger truckers leave the profession.

ONS figures showed that in 2013, 45 per cent of drivers were over 50, but by 2020 that demographic represented more than half, 54 percent, of all truckers.

Conversely, drivers aged between 35- to 49-years-old, those who could reasonably expect to spend another 10 to 20 years in the industry, shrank sharply, dwindling from 40 per cent of the overall workforce in 2013 to 29 per cent in 2020.

That's not what the Office for National Statistics' data shows though...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlab ... ationality

For the period July '16 to June '17 LGV driver numbers in the UK were at their highest with 280k UK nationals driving and 40k EU nationals driving.

The number of UK nationals driving LGV's since then has steadily declined down to 244k in the period April '20 to March '21.

The number of EU nationals driving held constant (+/- 1k) until the period April '20 to march '21 where the numbers dropped by 11k, from 39k in the previous 12 months to 28k. A significant, >25%, decrease.

[Saga Lout]

Figures from the Office of National Statistics, show that of the 46,000 drivers who left the haulage industry between 2016 and 2020, only 9,000 - 19 per cent - were EU nationals.

National statistics also show the percentage of EU drivers in the UK workforce has remained steady since Brexit.

Gotta love stats. So, I woder what was being done to rectify the shortfall?

Nice edit. I was going to suggest you needed a new calculator.

[DefTrap]

Yes, they could have had a 5 year plan to train more lorry drivers and drive up their wages etc, but what about all the other jobs that were going to be in demand? The government never has enough information to plan to the required level of detail. The best they can do is set the right conditions and hope for the best. The more they interfere the more the law of unintended consequences takes over.

They should put that in their manifesto
"We see there's a problem, but it's too big to deal with really and we're scared our policies will be totally wrong. Easier to do nothing, blame someone else."

[Count Steer]

Gotta love stats. So, I woder what was being done to rectify the shortfall?

Nice edit. I was going to suggest you needed a new calculator.

Nah.....new specs.

[slowsider]

It would have been easy to avoid and planned in the 5 years hence and be a killer policy - evict immigrants, save an industry, give jobs to Brits, improve conditions.

But instead it's incompetence and desperately trying to blame someone else. Sadly no EU to blame, that ship has sailed.

Back on subject, that's not how the UK works, you're right, the government has been woeful on employment sustainability, they do favour white collar city workers and it's London centric. Your five year plan suggestion would have been killer and I'm lucky enough to be able to do that (I've set up apprenticeship/graduate/A level trainee schemes) but a country like the UK isn't that simple - for one thing the political wrangling would probably crush it and slow organic change has been the way, with punctuated equilibrium situations like the one now, where the UK drivers have an opportunity to force something if they're supported.

What the UK needs is a centre ground Labour government that look outside of London.

I think the decks are stacked against any of that.
The lorry drivers haven't had anyone clapping for them; picture the right-wing press if they staged a slowdown and tried to 'Hold Britain to Ransom' or 'Held our Nurses Hostage'. Cue the kicking that Starmer would get if he hinted at supporting them.
Those that DID have a nightly round of applause were offered 1% subject to affordability.


5 year plans? Command economies? Is that you, Uncle Joe?

[Saga Lout]

5 year plans? Command economies? Is that you, Uncle Joe?

No bread or potatoes, but rejoice, comrades, tractor production is through the roof.