PANIC BUY!

[MrLongbeard]

I've not noticed any shortage here.

Same.
I filled up the bike locally on Monday, I filled up the car in Leicester on Wednesday, daughter got fuel on Tuesday in Kidder, wife hasn't mentioned any problems with filling up in Wales boyo.

Wandered down to the local filling station this morning with jerry can in hand (to fill the garden tools), in n out in 3 minutes flat, no fuss, no panic, no shortages

[MrLongbeard]

It's a logistics balance that is purposely that way, the shortage is just a lot of people that want stuff right now and not many stockpiles of those things, the demand exceeding supply happens so infrequently that it's not economically viable to stockpile it.

From the FT 2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 6ca66511c9

"The UK’s emergency petroleum stocks will more than halve in the event of a no-deal exit from the EU, reducing the buffer of strategic reserves available in the event of severe global supply disruption.

The government would no longer require industry to hold the EU-mandated levels in the event of a hard Brexit, defaulting instead to much lower reserves stipulated by the International Energy Agency, the UK’s energy department said."


Taking back control.

And have they?
Not that it matters, as there are no 'real' shortages at the mo

[Potter]

It's a logistics balance that is purposely that way, the shortage is just a lot of people that want stuff right now and not many stockpiles of those things, the demand exceeding supply happens so infrequently that it's not economically viable to stockpile it.

From the FT 2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 6ca66511c9

"The UK’s emergency petroleum stocks will more than halve in the event of a no-deal exit from the EU, reducing the buffer of strategic reserves available in the event of severe global supply disruption.

The government would no longer require industry to hold the EU-mandated levels in the event of a hard Brexit, defaulting instead to much lower reserves stipulated by the International Energy Agency, the UK’s energy department said."


Taking back control.

There is plenty of petrol, the UK doesn't currently need any more of a buffer of strategic reserves available than it already has, because there isn't a severe global supply disruption.

It's the delivery process that gets it to the garages just in time that is the issue, and the only reason it's not in time is because people are panic buying lots more than they were this time last week, and putting 4-10 times more lorries on the road just to cover this next few days isn't possible.

This little storm in a goldfish bowl the last few days is caused by consumer panic.

But hey, if you want the government to build great big stores of things so you never run out then get your tax money out to build them.

[Yorick]

Well, RTTL has decreed it's OK if they want fuel, but everybody else is panic buying. Cool

[slowsider]

But hey, if you want the government to build great big stores of things so you never run out then get your tax money out to build them.

yep, that's it. Or rather, isn't.

"Traditionally, Europe uses the summer, when gas prices are lower due to limited heating demand, to fill reserves for the winter. Following the closure of the Rough storage facility – a depleted gas field in the North Sea – in 2017, the UK has no long-term storage.
...
The UK currently has very modest amounts of storage – less than 6% of annual demand. In Germany, France, and Italy, storage covers about 20% of annual demand."

[demographic]

From the FT 2019: https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com ... 6ca66511c9

"The UK’s emergency petroleum stocks will more than halve in the event of a no-deal exit from the EU, reducing the buffer of strategic reserves available in the event of severe global supply disruption.

The government would no longer require industry to hold the EU-mandated levels in the event of a hard Brexit, defaulting instead to much lower reserves stipulated by the International Energy Agency, the UK’s energy department said."


Taking back control.
[/quote]


Naah, it's bitter paupers believing in lizardmen plus global shortages and some other bollocks I've just made up innit?
Not something that any halfway competent govermnent could possibly have forseen, nope, no way siree and absolutely nuffink to do with Brexit cos thats going to be starting to work out in the next 20 or so years and we'll all have free unicorns.
Yeah?

[Nordboy]

I'm looking at this from the positive side...

I don't have any unleaded for my lawnmower, which gets me out of a shit job for the weekend

[Yorick]

FB_IMG_1632582695067.jpg (127.68 KiB) Viewed 367 times

[Skub]

I'm looking at this from the positive side...

I don't have any unleaded for my lawnmower, which gets me out of a shit job for the weekend

But the grass will keep growing,then it'll rain and the grass will grow faster. By the time it dries up and you get some fuel,it'll be like the first cut of the year. Rotovator city.

[cheb]

I've found this company very helpful: http://www.petroldirect.com/

[demographic]

I've found this company very helpful: http://www.petroldirect.com/

To be fair, not seen an issues round here but I filled up from half a tank.
A full tank is about a week and a halfs worth at the current distance to the site I'm on but not so long ago I was getting through a tank every four days so that not being allowed to fill up unless I was less than a quarter of a tank could mean I wouldn't have enough even for one single day.

If I was retired I'd likely not have to think too hard about it but I've not seen any carpenters working from home yet so I'm not taking any chances.
Just means I won't have to fill up next week now.

[irie]

So when will this storm in a jerry can be over, my guess is Tuesday/Wednesday, whatdyareckon?

[Skub]

So when will this storm in a jerry can be over, my guess is Tuesday/Wednesday, whatdyareckon?

The Daily Wail will let us know.

[Mussels]

Google maps is showing local petrol stations are quieter than usual this morning, panic buying over.

I spoke too soon, just got back and every petrol station in town is either empty or has small queues in the street. London was ridiculous, every one we saw had a queue of 30+ cars blocking the roads up, I was glad to get out of there.
I'm glad I don't need any fuel yet, I'll go next weekend when it's quiet.

[Kneerly Down]

"Traditionally, Europe uses the summer, when gas prices are lower due to limited heating demand, to fill reserves for the winter. Following the closure of the Rough storage facility – a depleted gas field in the North Sea – in 2017, the UK has no long-term storage.
...

What actual difference would Rough being kept on (i.e. lots of investment to keep it running) made to the current situation?

We don't have a lack of gas; we have a lack of cheap gas.
I can't imagine Centrica, who owned and run Rough would have sold it for materially less than the market price.
Even then, when full, it was, what, 7 days of supply? Can't ser it would have made any real difference to what we're faced with now anyway.

[demographic]

So when will this storm in a jerry can be over, my guess is Tuesday/Wednesday, whatdyareckon?

Dunno, we'll see.
If it's just a media fueled panic a week at most but if its a genuine shortage of drivers expect it to roll on through the different businesses as they each up the rate or suffer because they haven't.


Tell you what, well stick a pin in this conversation and come back to it in a while and decide who is right and who is suffering from delusions of adequacy.

Hell, it might even be both of us thats wrong and some random thats got the measure of it all.
Thelat would be proper funny.

[Count Steer]

"Traditionally, Europe uses the summer, when gas prices are lower due to limited heating demand, to fill reserves for the winter. Following the closure of the Rough storage facility – a depleted gas field in the North Sea – in 2017, the UK has no long-term storage.
...

What actual difference would Rough being kept on (i.e. lots of investment to keep it running) made to the current situation?

We don't have a lack of gas; we have a lack of cheap gas.
I can't imagine Centrica, who owned and run Rough would have sold it for materially less than the market price.
Even then, when full, it was, what, 7 days of supply? Can't ser it would have made any real difference to what we're faced with now anyway.

I don't think it was feasible to keep Rough going. In simple terms it was leaking. At capacity it was about 9 days supply but would be used to handle peaks in demand, interruptions to supply from elsewhere and also help deal with price peaks from other sources eg the continent/Russia. If European prices were high they could sell from 'stock'. It was never intended that we emptied it in 9 days.
It was always a good thing to have, as other storage options are limited eg line-packing (increasing pressure in the medium pressure network).
You could also finish extracting with a rig and push the gas into storage if demand was low but you wanted to move the rig on.
There was talk of using another depleted field for storage but I don't think it happened.
The loss of storage means that we've lost resilience/security/flexibility. Not great in a strategically important supply.
I suppose it could have dampened price rises a bit if the stock was part of the traded market but that's secondary to not getting our nuts squeezed by the Russians when they feel like crimping supplies that we need over and above what we're producing at any point in time.

[Rockburner]

Just got back from Kop Hill, Chobham and Heston services are apparently out of fuel and the services at Beaconsfield has queues a half-hour long to get into the forecourt (that are blocking entry to the rest of the place)

On our road there's a mile long queue for a petrol station at midnight.

Its insane.

[Potter]

I'm not close to this, but according to the people that are, the petrol storage facilities currently have enough fuel to meet demand, the issue right now is the logistics to transport fuel to petrol stations when the public goes on a run and buys five times what they would usually buy over a few days.
They don't have five times as many lorries and lorry drivers sitting around waiting for these once in a decade events.

The rest of the discussion is a long term strategy one and (for example) I've already expressed my opinion about the way the Gas Act was managed and how the UK governments since (all of them) failed to regulate and mandate adequately.

I also have an issue with consumers that just don't give a shit, they want cheap and they don't care how they get it or who suffers.
Consumers can make responsible choices about what they buy, but very few of us do, most just buy at the best price they can and don't care how those cuts were made. E.g. I guarantee that you own shoes made in a shithole by poorly paid staff, but few of you will spend the money to ensure that they were made in the UK by properly paid craftsmen.

People are also lazy and entitled, for example, it's weird how the people in lower jobs that don't ever make any kind of strategic decisions at scale all apparently know more than the people that do, it's some sort of strange cosmic paradox. If you have the answers then get off your arse and start to manage things, I used to work for Engie and a good friend of mine is a CEO there, if you have all the answers then maybe I can get him to find you a CEO slot so you can sort this mess out?

[Count Steer]

I used to work for Engie and a good friend of mine is a CEO there, if you have all the answers then maybe I can get him to find you a CEO slot so you can sort this mess out?

The CEO of Engie is going to be a bit surprised that her best mate thinks she's a bloke and is running an executive recruitment agency.