mangocrazy wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:36 am
So you agree that this budget was an entirely shameless ploy of making the rich richer...
They actually said that, it's the core principle of their changes, they didn't try to hide it.
I think it's the most honest policy for many years, make the rich richer and look to trickle down prosperity.
The alternative is to invest in the poor and let's be honest, they aren't going to drag the country out of a mess.
I also think this is a swipe at the BofE, they've totally fucked the pound and the government have been pushing for a while without results, so now they've pulled the pin on the most aggressive tory plan for years and the bank have to act more aggressively in response.
The major problem with that approach is that 'trickle down' economics simply don't work. The rich spend on stuff that rich people want, massive houses, flash cars, etc. etc. but the majority of their loot is stashed away in offshore bank accounts. Only a tiny fraction of their wealth actually reaches the poor starving masses. By contrast, if you give a poor person money, they will spend it, pretty much immediately. They don't have the luxury of saving. You referred earlier to the velocity of money - that is way higher amongst the poor than it is among the rich. If you want money circulating through the economy direct it to the poor and they will use it, as they don't have any choice in the matter.
And it's not the BoE that's fucked the pound, it's the Govt itself, first with Brexit and now with this monstrously ill-judged budget.
Yesterday, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng proved beyond doubt that the public’s best interest means absolutely nothing to them.
Kwarteng’s mini-budget announcement underlines a cataclysmic vision for the near future. People want a government that helps them through tough times and mobilises our common resources for the benefit of all. Instead, this government is syphoning money from the poorest right into the pockets of the rich and powerful – many of whom are their mates.
The new mini-budget looks like it was concocted in the boardrooms of far-right think tanks, not deliberated in a democratic forum. The top bracket of income tax, which applies to the nation’s highest earners, will be scrapped entirely, along with the cap on bonuses for bankers. Those making over £1,000,000 will see their take-home income increase by more than £40,000, and the poorest will see barely any increase at all. It’s an incredibly dangerous gamble, with regular people’s livelihoods as the collateral. The pound absolutely tanked in value almost immediately following the announcement, reaching depths not seen in decades and further compounding the disastrous impacts of Truss’ strategy.
Truss’ plan for our domestic economy is predicated on a delusional economic fantasy that experts and the public have long learned to distrust. The lie that handing out money to the rich will lift the entire economy up and benefit the nation’s poorest is not a new one. It simply does not work as advertised, and we have the historical data to prove it. Truss and Kwarteng spotlight economic growth as the ultimate goal, but don’t bother to ensure or even explain how that increase in value will reach the bank accounts of ordinary people. It’s more likely that this spending will end up in shady offshore bank accounts than in normal people’s wallets.
There’s nothing mysterious about how we ended up in this catastrophic economic situation. Think-tanks like the Institute for Economic Affairs and the Adam Smith Institute are popping bottles of champagne this weekend, while the rest of the country hunkers down for a brutal and austere winter. Radical right-wing billionaires, Brexiteers, and short-sellers poised to profit are celebrating too, knowing that their undisclosed donation money did its job. We failed to defend our system and strengthen our institutions enough, and our system's lack of resilience has never been more obvious. There’s no two ways about it – we’ve been sold down the river to the highest bidder, and opposing voices are being silenced with restrictive measures on protest and government accountability.
Remember: the vast majority of the country didn’t even vote for this government, let alone the hidden financial strings attached to it.
All who oppose minority rule have an obligation to learn from this mistake. It’s time to put an end to the hegemony of billionaire-funded think tanks. It’s time to say that undisclosed donations are illegal and unacceptable – and enforce it powerfully. It’s time to fix the broken FPTP system that gives us PMs like Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. We don’t have to live in a world where our politicians lie to us and steal our livelihoods instead of helping us through a crisis.
Let’s determine our own future, instead of having it imposed upon us by those looking to benefit from our misfortunes.
irie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:02 am
Some here will have Masters in economics, mine included a large economics component.
It's not done you much good has it
Without me disclosing personal financial details you will have no idea if (having a Masters degree) has "done me any good", and obviously I'm not going to do so because you thrive on comparing yourself to others and bigging yourself up.
Last edited by irie on Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
mangocrazy wrote: All the very best,
Mark Kieran
CEO, Open Britain
Wiki wrote:Open Britain is a British pro-European Union campaign group set up in the aftermath of the 2016 European Union referendum.
Bad losers.
Only see a single reference to Brexit in that piece. It's all about the economy and the FPTP voting system that permits minority governments to have such sway over the nation.
And I notice you've carefully avoided pointing out the alleged errors in my comments - just a blanket 'not even half right' and 'some truth wrapped with some lies'. Hardly a reasoned critique...
irie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:39 am
Without me disclosing personal financial details you will have no idea if (having a Masters degree) has "done me any good", and obviously I'm not going to do so because you thrive on comparing yourself to others and bigging yourself up.
Oh here we go...
I don't care about your financial details, your finances don't matter to me, I'm calling you on what you said...
irie wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 6:52 pm
I do not share your pessimism about the future performance of the UK economy.
And time has shown that my prediction was correct, the economy is in a worse position than it was when you wrote that, so you're in a bit of a bind, you either have to claim that the economy has improved, or admit you were wrong.
It has nothing to do with your degree or your bank account, so feel free to not mention them.
I said:
In the long run what matters is how the UK economy performs in relation to other western economies, especially continental European. Service and digital economies such as the UK's are inherently more flexible and faster to adapt to change than manufacturing economies.
Thus to the contrary I do not share your pessimism about the future performance of the UK economy.
I still do not share your pessimism about the future of the UK economy.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
The EU had a big influence on UK tax policy and these changes take us away from what the EU wants, no surprise that an EU lobby group doesn't like them.
It sticks out that middle earners are the losers, reductions in lower and higher tax rates but nothing in between and no increase in allowances.
The tax changes will be attractive to foreign lorry drivers so it's not all bad news.
Potter wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:37 am
Dull post, but...
Interesting rationales, ta.
I have a place in Cambridge that I'm in no hurry to sell, but I know I will sell in the next 5 years, and is currently silly money, ridiculous. It's seriously tempting to cash in as it'll be 100% profit.
In the long run what matters is how the UK economy performs in relation to other western economies, especially continental European. Service and digital economies such as the UK's are inherently more flexible and faster to adapt to change than manufacturing economies.
Thus to the contrary I do not share your pessimism about the future performance of the UK economy.
I still do not share your pessimism about the future of the UK economy.
Ok, since you first posted that in January, the pound is weaker, inflation is higher, and the Bank of England itself has stated that the UK is now in recession - these are facts and they align with my forecast.
The BofE forecasts worse to come.
Can you explain why you disagree and think the UK economy is in a better position than it was in January.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
mangocrazy wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:41 pm
And I notice you've carefully avoided pointing out the alleged errors in my comments - just a blanket 'not even half right' and 'some truth wrapped with some lies'. Hardly a reasoned critique...
Respectfully mate they're not your comments, you're just regurgitating what you've read on a biased news post.
The long post was clearly not my comment, and that was made amply clear. The earlier, shorter comment that you dismissed as not even half right is entirely mine and reflects my opinion. It's a pretty condescending attitude you're displaying here, stating that opinions counter to your own are just regurgitating other sources, whereas your opinions are somehow derived solely from your own independent thought.
mangocrazy wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:40 pm
The long post was clearly not my comment, and that was made amply clear. The earlier, shorter comment that you dismissed as not even half right is entirely mine and reflects my opinion. It's a pretty condescending attitude you're displaying here, stating that opinions counter to your own are just regurgitating other sources, whereas your opinions are somehow derived solely from your own independent thought.
I can't help what you'll see, as I said below...
Potter wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 12:59 pm
... and then I have the inevitable posts saying I'm full of shit because most of the people reading it genuinely don't understand the underlying principles so they'll just see it as condescending.
You've got this routine worked out pretty well, haven't you? You can display tone-deaf levels of condescension because you are somehow on a different mental plane to the hoi-polloi, and besides, you've already hedged your bets by saying this is how things will play out.
I'm not saying you're full of shit; I'm just saying that you are so in thrall to your own cleverness that you can't see valid points counter to your own opinion when they're laid out in front of you. The plight of the poor common man or woman is of no interest to you, as they are simply collateral damage in an asset grab by the already obscenely rich.
Potter wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 11:15 am
E.g. I've done well out of some of the changes, so I'm spending more money on other things, for example I'm saving on stamp duty, so I'm buying a more expensive dining room table from a bloke who makes oak tables in his barn. It won't make any difference to me because I'd budgeted for it, but he'll get an extra £2.5k.
Of course, that means the government won't get that £2.5k to distribute to people in benefits, but the table man running a small business will directly benefit. I don't know how all that will pan out, but it's not a bad thing for me and him.
That, in a nutshell, is the economy. It’s not about wealth or taxes. It’s simply about the movement of money, each of us putting a pound in each other’s pocket for goods or a service. It’s about having the confidence to spend that pound and not hold on to it for a rainy day. The economy is often more about psychology than it is about economics.
irie wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 1:25 pm
In the long run what matters is how the UK economy performs in relation to other western economies, especially continental European. Service and digital economies such as the UK's are inherently more flexible and faster to adapt to change than manufacturing economies.
I don't think you even understood what you said there, the UK is already comparing unfavourably to other EU countries.
The pound is weaker, inflation is higher, and the Bank of England itself has stated that the UK is now in recession.
The UK is struggling and it's got worse since January.
You were wrong just move on, you're looking silly now.
As ever you're right icky, carry on trolling.
Last edited by irie on Sat Sep 24, 2022 4:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"Truth does not change because it is, or is not, believed by a majority of the people." - Giordano Bruno
Potter wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 9:37 am
Dull post, but...
Interesting rationales, ta.
I have a place in Cambridge that I'm in no hurry to sell, but I know I will sell in the next 5 years, and is currently silly money, ridiculous. It's seriously tempting to cash in as it'll be 100% profit.
A good friend here is an ex money markets guy, who still does (probably) similar stuff to Potter. His brother has a large property company in the uk. My mate would advocate not waiting too long to sell!! Don't know how long 'too long' is! I'll be honest and say that I didn't pay a lot of attention as I have no interest or possibility of buying in the uk. But I can ask for more info if you are interested
Life is for living. Buy the shoes. Eat the cake. Ride the bikes. Just, ride the bikes!!
As a person who has accused Iccy of trolling in the past, I'm not convinced he's doing it now.
The pound is devalued now, uk exports have dropped off and there are tarrifs due to be put into place that will drastically affect it even more.
Even as our chancellor was doing the speech for his mini budget the pound dropped further.
In theory a weak pound helps exports but maybe not so much after (in an almost unprecedented act of own foot targetting) we successfully negotiated far worse trading arrangements with our largest market.
So, in short I suspect this Long Term view of the UK economy where it picks up must be a very long term prediction indeed.
demographic wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 6:58 pm
As a person who has accused Iccy of trolling in the past, I'm not convinced he's doing it now.
The pound is devalued now, uk exports have dropped off and there are tarrifs due to be put into place that will drastically affect it even more.
Even as our chancellor was doing the speech for his mini budget the pound dropped further.
In theory a weak pound helps exports but maybe not so much after (in an almost unprecedented act of own foot targetting) we successfully negotiated far worse trading arrangements with our largest market.
So, in short I suspect this Long Term view of the UK economy where it picks up must be a very long term prediction indeed.
There were always going to be big economic aftershocks after the pandemic but Putin’s adventures have made the situation a lot worse. It’s difficult to attribute the effects of either event precisely. One thing for certain is that we have a bit of a shitstorm heading our way.
The best way to influence an economy isn’t to pull one lever a lot, it’s to pull lots of levers a little. The trouble is that Truss hasn’t got many levers available to her now.
The only potential upside I can see is that with Brexit being out of the news cycle the EU may soften their line a little if they can do it under the radar. They’ve got bigger issues themselves and it may be advantageous to them to put brexit to bed with some sort of compromise while the world’s looking elsewhere. Perhaps.
wheelnut wrote: ↑Sat Sep 24, 2022 7:43 pm
... the EU [have] got bigger issues themselves ...
It has indeed, far worse than the UK's problems. It's all comparative, watch this space.
I'd dispute that. We have Brexit, and the continuing fallout from it and that impacts the UK way more than it does the EU. To the EU it's an annoyance, for the UK it's a continuous running sore, with thousands of small businesses suffering existential problems. The NI protocol is also still unresolved. We also have the latest and greatest iteration of an agenda-driven government that cares not a jot for its poorer citizens, but whose only concern is how much taxpayer's cash it can siphon off. And winter is coming and no-one really knows the true cost of keeping warm yet.
I'm in France at the moment. Fuel prices are at least 10% lower than in the UK and energy costs for home heating have been capped at a 4% rise. The €uro is inching towards parity with Sterling and there's no panic on the streets or shortages in the supermarkets. If I could stay here, I would.
